Tuesday, July 19, 2016 9:15:38 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 07/18 2016 EOD
I think we remain in consolidation but with a better "mild bullishness" bias. In aggregate there's no near-term hint of weakness.
Today is easy to describe: open at strong support, $1.34, by bids there blanking the early $1.31 bids, rise a bit, flat, rise a bit, re-trace a bit, rise slowly over a couple hours and finish the day in the high ranges. All on decent volume, ~50% above the 10-day average.
There were no pre-market trades.
Just before the open b/a was 4.1K:4.3K $1.31/9. Note the bid matches the suspicious AH 150 share trade from yesterday. In the seconds before the open b/a moved to 5.7K:4.2K $1.34/$1.40. This surprised me even though we know how strong $1.34 support has been. Furthermore, that $1.34 was the low for the day. From there ...
09:30-11:47 opened the day with a 1,590 sell for $1.35, another 1,147 traded $1.35 and 200 for $1.3599. At 9:32 b/a was 9.8K:2K $1.34/8, 9:37 10.3K:1.2K $1.34/7, and then 9:38 did 400 $1.3425. 9:41 b/a was 8.8K:500 $1.34/5 and did 9:41's 675 $1.35 and 9:42's 500 $1.3499. B/a at 9:46 was 9K:1K $1.34/5 and 9:46 did 10 $1.34, 9:47 200 $1.3450/$1.35. B/a at 9:49 was 12.1K:6.5K $1.34/5. Then came 9:52's 720 $1.34/$1.3499, 10:03's 520 $1.35, 10:07's ~2.9K $1.35/6, 10:13's 1.7K $1.35, 10:14's 15 $1.34/$1.3499, and 10:16's 100 $1.35. 10:17 did 13 $1.343, 10:18-:49 had no trades, and b/a at 10:37 was 9.2K:11.5K $1.34/5. 10:50-:51 did ~7.7K $1.3450/$1.35, 10:57 7.7K $1.34/$1.3499, 10:59-11:01 8.1K $1.34/5. 11:00 had b/a go to 9.4K:6.9K $1.34/5, and we saw more steady medium/low/no-volume $1.34/5 through 11:03. Then it reverted to very low/no-volume $1.34/5 again. At 11:06 b/a was 9.7K:1.3K $1.34/5, 11:39 11.1K:1K $1.34/5. The period ended on 11:47's ~8.7K $1.35.
11:48-12:15 began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 on 11:48's 200 $1.3599/36 and 11:51's 2.7K $1.35/6. At 11:54 b/a was 1.5K:6.1K $1.35/7. Volume was interrupted by 12:12's ~10.1K $1.37 block trade. 12:15's b/a was 1.5K:7K $1.36/7 and 12:15's 10.7K $1.36/7 (incl. 10K $1.37 block trade) ended the period.
12:16-12:35, after two no-trades minutes, began $1.35/6 (mostly 6) on 12:18's ~9.1K $1.35->$1.36->$1.35 and b/a at 12:23 went 1.1K:1.6K $1.35/6. Volume was interrupted by 12:24's 10.9K (incl. 10K $1.36 block trade) and b/a went 2.6K:2.1K $1.35/6. 12:35's 200 $1.36 ended the period.
12:36-13:18, after ten no-trade minutes had b/a 12:45 3.2K:1.9K $1.35/6 and began mostly very low/no-volume $1.34/5 after doing 12:46's 25.8K (incl. 10K $1.35 block trade) $1.35->$1.3558->$1.35->$1.34->$1.35 and 12:49's 11.5K (incl. another 10K $1.35 block trade) $1.35->$1.34. That moved b/a at 12:50 to 17.1K:13.5K $1.34/5, and did 12:52's 7.5K $1.34/$1.3489. B/a at 12:56 was 17.1K 13.2K $1.34/5. 13:18's 100 $1.36 ended the period.
13:19-14:08, after two no-trade minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 on 13:21's 2.5K $1.36->$1.37 and 13:23's 2.6K $1.36/$.3607. B/a at 13:22 went 2.1K:~7.5K $1.36/7, 13:43 5.4K:~7K $1.36/7, 13:43 5.4K:~7K $1.36/7. 14:08's 8.1K $1.366/$1.37 ended the period.
14:09-15:35 began very low/no-volume $1.37/8 after 14:09-:11's ~18.8K $1.37->$1.365->$1.37->$1.38->$1.39. Low volume was interrupted by medium/high-volume 15:30-:35 and ended the period on 15:35's 6.3K $1.37/8. B/a at 14:30 was 5.5K:17.3K $1.37/8, 15:00 5.6K:42.5K $1.37/8.
15:36-16:00 began low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 15:36's 12.7K $1.38->$1.39. Volume was interrupted by 15:54's 13K $1.38/9. The period and day ended on 15:59's 2,985 $1.38/9 and 16:00's 400 sell for $1.38.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 139,399, 45.96% of day's volume, with a $1.3623 VWAP, quite close to the day's $1.3640. The count and percentage of day's volume are higher than the recent normal. This is good I think. Also, as opposed to yesterday when I said { It does suggest the volume-indicated strength in the down move today is not really all that strong though. This is supported by the minimal decline in the day-over-day VWAP }, we did have some "larger larger trades", which is also good. Combined with other stuff from this post I suspect this suggests an overall near-term sustainable bullishness.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart yesterday I said { ... It does suggest the volume-indicated strength in the down move today is not really all that strong though. This is supported by the minimal decline in the day-over-day VWAP } and later noted { ... I suspect the "shaking the bushes" may not work because I seriously doubt there are any "weak hands" (e.g. skittish long-term retail investors) of any substantial quantity left if the apathetic response to the recent positive PRs are any indication. There could be ... }
Well I do occasionally pat myself on the back and this will be one of those times. The pre-market $1.31 bid was masked and never seen again as the folks that though the $1.34 strong support was a good buy point. So what's the minimal chart result of that today? Further yesterday I had another discussion expressing that I thought we wouldn't confirm a break down. I won't repeat the whole thing but you can find by searching yesterday's post for { However, we could still be above both the well-tested $1.34 price-point support and the rising long-term support (rising white line), ~$1.31. I consider these two more reliable trends than the medium and short-term green lines. }
We came back above both potential resistance trend lines (green lines) and traded completely at and above $1.34 and closed right on the rising potential resistance (rising green line). So yesterday's break down is not confirmed. After opening flat with yesterday's close we had strong, albeit on weaker volume, intra-day buy percentage on a reasonably steady movement higher of VWAPs that resulted in a higher close, right on the resistance, as mentioned.
Having noted the positive aspects, we have to note that we did have a lower low and high. The high doesn't bother me because we had a "bottle rocket" movement (meaning it shot up fast and high with lots of sparkle and then fizzled and fell back to earth in a rather anti-climatic end) around noon. Sans that, our high was pretty much similar to yesterday's.
We also had reduced volume, which on an "up" day, suggests it doesn't have the strength of yesterday's down move. I'm going to dispute that here. First, as noted, lower high and low so it's "up" only in regard to the easily-manipulated close (I don't suspect manipulation today though). Second, if my trend lines are valid there should have been a little hesitation by potential traders or investors about entering when we are between trend lines and don't have a strong indication of coming direction. In spite of that, they volume was "good", being ~50% higher than yesterday's ~204K. So in aggregate the lower volume doesn't concern me. I would not be at all surprised to see a real up day on higher volume tomorrow, based only on this chart and these considerations.
Last, whenever things act as I suspect they will, I get (over?) confident because it suggests I'm correctly understanding things. Yesterday I said { My TFH knows that MMs work on a combination of VWAP and volume to generate their incomes. It suspects they will work towards achieving intra-day movement of $1.34->$1.38 (or higher?) range as a starting point in tomorrow's early trading, ... } There was much more discussion about that, of course. Anyway, we began yesterday at $1.34 and achieved $1.38 by 14:10 ( actually $1.39 then) and settled in at $1.37/8 the rest of the day.
The fly in this ointment is "Will I correctly assess this action". I'm leaning bullish near-term.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continued declining. If we hold here the 10-day will start to rise while the 20-day and 50-day continue lower, for a couple more days for both.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday all weakened and had Williams %R enter oversold and the rest below neutral, had improvement in RSI, momentum (moved above neutral), accumulation/distribution (still below neutral), and Williams %R (right at oversold boundary). Weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic and ADX-related. Going from all negative to mixed is suggestive of a turn but not yet conclusive. In aggregate I do think they suggest near-term upside.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3198 and $1.4063 ($1.3074 and $1.4080 yesterday) continue converging, but more slowly now, and out trading range is right around the mid-point, offering no hint of a likely direction of price movement. Until trading range narrows the convergence of the limits will just about cease. In isolation this suggests a short period of consolidation.
All in, the earliest signs of a returning mild bullish bias within our consolidation have appeared. If that truly is the case we can expect to exit short-term consolidation shortly, likely with a bullish move, and remain only within medium-term consolidation.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, up and good, and the short percentage is within the desired range (needs re-check) near the upper end while the buy percentage is nicely above what I think is needed for sustainable appreciation. The nice thing is that this is not on an excessive move, suggesting that there won't (yet!) be a big rush by potential sellers to lock in profits. So although the buy percentage should weaken a bit going forward, the short percentage should remain somewhat "reasonable" and some near-term price appreciation should be seen.
The spread is very reasonable and especially so considering the buy percentage. It's the sort of think I would expect while observing a more-or-less steady grind up. Let's see if we can continue that.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings remain unchanged and positive at ten negatives and fourteen positives. Change since 10/13 is -$0.0082, -0.60% and the average of the changes over the period is 0.0091% vs. yesterday's -0.0047%.
All in, I think near-term mild bullishness is suggested here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
I think we remain in consolidation but with a better "mild bullishness" bias. In aggregate there's no near-term hint of weakness.
Today is easy to describe: open at strong support, $1.34, by bids there blanking the early $1.31 bids, rise a bit, flat, rise a bit, re-trace a bit, rise slowly over a couple hours and finish the day in the high ranges. All on decent volume, ~50% above the 10-day average.
There were no pre-market trades.
Just before the open b/a was 4.1K:4.3K $1.31/9. Note the bid matches the suspicious AH 150 share trade from yesterday. In the seconds before the open b/a moved to 5.7K:4.2K $1.34/$1.40. This surprised me even though we know how strong $1.34 support has been. Furthermore, that $1.34 was the low for the day. From there ...
09:30-11:47 opened the day with a 1,590 sell for $1.35, another 1,147 traded $1.35 and 200 for $1.3599. At 9:32 b/a was 9.8K:2K $1.34/8, 9:37 10.3K:1.2K $1.34/7, and then 9:38 did 400 $1.3425. 9:41 b/a was 8.8K:500 $1.34/5 and did 9:41's 675 $1.35 and 9:42's 500 $1.3499. B/a at 9:46 was 9K:1K $1.34/5 and 9:46 did 10 $1.34, 9:47 200 $1.3450/$1.35. B/a at 9:49 was 12.1K:6.5K $1.34/5. Then came 9:52's 720 $1.34/$1.3499, 10:03's 520 $1.35, 10:07's ~2.9K $1.35/6, 10:13's 1.7K $1.35, 10:14's 15 $1.34/$1.3499, and 10:16's 100 $1.35. 10:17 did 13 $1.343, 10:18-:49 had no trades, and b/a at 10:37 was 9.2K:11.5K $1.34/5. 10:50-:51 did ~7.7K $1.3450/$1.35, 10:57 7.7K $1.34/$1.3499, 10:59-11:01 8.1K $1.34/5. 11:00 had b/a go to 9.4K:6.9K $1.34/5, and we saw more steady medium/low/no-volume $1.34/5 through 11:03. Then it reverted to very low/no-volume $1.34/5 again. At 11:06 b/a was 9.7K:1.3K $1.34/5, 11:39 11.1K:1K $1.34/5. The period ended on 11:47's ~8.7K $1.35.
11:48-12:15 began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 on 11:48's 200 $1.3599/36 and 11:51's 2.7K $1.35/6. At 11:54 b/a was 1.5K:6.1K $1.35/7. Volume was interrupted by 12:12's ~10.1K $1.37 block trade. 12:15's b/a was 1.5K:7K $1.36/7 and 12:15's 10.7K $1.36/7 (incl. 10K $1.37 block trade) ended the period.
12:16-12:35, after two no-trades minutes, began $1.35/6 (mostly 6) on 12:18's ~9.1K $1.35->$1.36->$1.35 and b/a at 12:23 went 1.1K:1.6K $1.35/6. Volume was interrupted by 12:24's 10.9K (incl. 10K $1.36 block trade) and b/a went 2.6K:2.1K $1.35/6. 12:35's 200 $1.36 ended the period.
12:36-13:18, after ten no-trade minutes had b/a 12:45 3.2K:1.9K $1.35/6 and began mostly very low/no-volume $1.34/5 after doing 12:46's 25.8K (incl. 10K $1.35 block trade) $1.35->$1.3558->$1.35->$1.34->$1.35 and 12:49's 11.5K (incl. another 10K $1.35 block trade) $1.35->$1.34. That moved b/a at 12:50 to 17.1K:13.5K $1.34/5, and did 12:52's 7.5K $1.34/$1.3489. B/a at 12:56 was 17.1K 13.2K $1.34/5. 13:18's 100 $1.36 ended the period.
13:19-14:08, after two no-trade minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 on 13:21's 2.5K $1.36->$1.37 and 13:23's 2.6K $1.36/$.3607. B/a at 13:22 went 2.1K:~7.5K $1.36/7, 13:43 5.4K:~7K $1.36/7, 13:43 5.4K:~7K $1.36/7. 14:08's 8.1K $1.366/$1.37 ended the period.
14:09-15:35 began very low/no-volume $1.37/8 after 14:09-:11's ~18.8K $1.37->$1.365->$1.37->$1.38->$1.39. Low volume was interrupted by medium/high-volume 15:30-:35 and ended the period on 15:35's 6.3K $1.37/8. B/a at 14:30 was 5.5K:17.3K $1.37/8, 15:00 5.6K:42.5K $1.37/8.
15:36-16:00 began low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 15:36's 12.7K $1.38->$1.39. Volume was interrupted by 15:54's 13K $1.38/9. The period and day ended on 15:59's 2,985 $1.38/9 and 16:00's 400 sell for $1.38.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 139,399, 45.96% of day's volume, with a $1.3623 VWAP, quite close to the day's $1.3640. The count and percentage of day's volume are higher than the recent normal. This is good I think. Also, as opposed to yesterday when I said { It does suggest the volume-indicated strength in the down move today is not really all that strong though. This is supported by the minimal decline in the day-over-day VWAP }, we did have some "larger larger trades", which is also good. Combined with other stuff from this post I suspect this suggests an overall near-term sustainable bullishness.
These buy percentages are just terrific. As I was observing them I started thinking the usual "they can't hold that high" but it looked different. In retrospect I think it was mostly that after the open and pop up there was no big drop. I'm not sure but that seems most likely the cause. Anyway, in conjunction with that we had the VWAP hold up well and normal variation in the larger blocks.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
11:47 57825 $1.3400 $1.3600 $78,004.06 $1.3490 19.07% 68.38% Incl 10:50 $1.3499 4,900 10:57 $1.3499 5,000
10:59 $1.3500 5,000 11:47 $1.3500 6,999
12:15 23600 $1.3500 $1.3700 $32,288.41 $1.3682 7.78% 69.73% Incl 12:12 $1.3700 10,000 12:15 $1.3700 10,000
12:35 20600 $1.3500 $1.3600 $27,956.92 $1.3571 6.79% 66.99% Incl 12:18 $1.3536 7,200 12:24 $1.3600 10,000
13:18 70000 $1.3400 $1.3600 $94,478.18 $1.3497 23.08% 68.54% Incl 12:46 $1.3500 10,000 12:49 $1.3500 10,000
12:52 $1.3489 7,000 12:57 $1.3500 9,700
13:06 $1.3501 5,000
14:08 13940 $1.3600 $1.3700 $19,036.39 $1.3656 4.60% 68.97%
15:35 72960 $1.3650 $1.3900 $100,457.84 $1.3769 24.06% 66.25% Incl 14:10 $1.3900 8,600
16:00 42668 $1.3800 $1.3900 $59,139.94 $1.3860 14.07% 65.37% Incl 14:23 $1.3782 5,000 15:30 $1.3701 5,000
15:33 $1.3710 10,000 15:54 $1.3900 10,000
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Note that if I use yesterdays official low of $1,35 instead of the suspicious AH 150 $1.31 the low movement is -0.74. Overall these are too bad and don't seem counter to consolidation with some bullishness thrown in.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.17% 2.29% -2.11% 2.22% -43.65%
Prior 0.74% 1.48% 0.00% 0.73% 57.83%
On my minimal chart yesterday I said { ... It does suggest the volume-indicated strength in the down move today is not really all that strong though. This is supported by the minimal decline in the day-over-day VWAP } and later noted { ... I suspect the "shaking the bushes" may not work because I seriously doubt there are any "weak hands" (e.g. skittish long-term retail investors) of any substantial quantity left if the apathetic response to the recent positive PRs are any indication. There could be ... }
Well I do occasionally pat myself on the back and this will be one of those times. The pre-market $1.31 bid was masked and never seen again as the folks that though the $1.34 strong support was a good buy point. So what's the minimal chart result of that today? Further yesterday I had another discussion expressing that I thought we wouldn't confirm a break down. I won't repeat the whole thing but you can find by searching yesterday's post for { However, we could still be above both the well-tested $1.34 price-point support and the rising long-term support (rising white line), ~$1.31. I consider these two more reliable trends than the medium and short-term green lines. }
We came back above both potential resistance trend lines (green lines) and traded completely at and above $1.34 and closed right on the rising potential resistance (rising green line). So yesterday's break down is not confirmed. After opening flat with yesterday's close we had strong, albeit on weaker volume, intra-day buy percentage on a reasonably steady movement higher of VWAPs that resulted in a higher close, right on the resistance, as mentioned.
Having noted the positive aspects, we have to note that we did have a lower low and high. The high doesn't bother me because we had a "bottle rocket" movement (meaning it shot up fast and high with lots of sparkle and then fizzled and fell back to earth in a rather anti-climatic end) around noon. Sans that, our high was pretty much similar to yesterday's.
We also had reduced volume, which on an "up" day, suggests it doesn't have the strength of yesterday's down move. I'm going to dispute that here. First, as noted, lower high and low so it's "up" only in regard to the easily-manipulated close (I don't suspect manipulation today though). Second, if my trend lines are valid there should have been a little hesitation by potential traders or investors about entering when we are between trend lines and don't have a strong indication of coming direction. In spite of that, they volume was "good", being ~50% higher than yesterday's ~204K. So in aggregate the lower volume doesn't concern me. I would not be at all surprised to see a real up day on higher volume tomorrow, based only on this chart and these considerations.
Last, whenever things act as I suspect they will, I get (over?) confident because it suggests I'm correctly understanding things. Yesterday I said { My TFH knows that MMs work on a combination of VWAP and volume to generate their incomes. It suspects they will work towards achieving intra-day movement of $1.34->$1.38 (or higher?) range as a starting point in tomorrow's early trading, ... } There was much more discussion about that, of course. Anyway, we began yesterday at $1.34 and achieved $1.38 by 14:10 ( actually $1.39 then) and settled in at $1.37/8 the rest of the day.
The fly in this ointment is "Will I correctly assess this action". I'm leaning bullish near-term.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continued declining. If we hold here the 10-day will start to rise while the 20-day and 50-day continue lower, for a couple more days for both.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday all weakened and had Williams %R enter oversold and the rest below neutral, had improvement in RSI, momentum (moved above neutral), accumulation/distribution (still below neutral), and Williams %R (right at oversold boundary). Weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic and ADX-related. Going from all negative to mixed is suggestive of a turn but not yet conclusive. In aggregate I do think they suggest near-term upside.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3198 and $1.4063 ($1.3074 and $1.4080 yesterday) continue converging, but more slowly now, and out trading range is right around the mid-point, offering no hint of a likely direction of price movement. Until trading range narrows the convergence of the limits will just about cease. In isolation this suggests a short period of consolidation.
All in, the earliest signs of a returning mild bullish bias within our consolidation have appeared. If that truly is the case we can expect to exit short-term consolidation shortly, likely with a bullish move, and remain only within medium-term consolidation.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, up and good, and the short percentage is within the desired range (needs re-check) near the upper end while the buy percentage is nicely above what I think is needed for sustainable appreciation. The nice thing is that this is not on an excessive move, suggesting that there won't (yet!) be a big rush by potential sellers to lock in profits. So although the buy percentage should weaken a bit going forward, the short percentage should remain somewhat "reasonable" and some near-term price appreciation should be seen.
The spread is very reasonable and especially so considering the buy percentage. It's the sort of think I would expect while observing a more-or-less steady grind up. Let's see if we can continue that.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings remain unchanged and positive at ten negatives and fourteen positives. Change since 10/13 is -$0.0082, -0.60% and the average of the changes over the period is 0.0091% vs. yesterday's -0.0047%.
All in, I think near-term mild bullishness is suggested here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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