Wednesday, July 13, 2016 10:20:47 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 07/12 2016 EOD
I believe we are starting to exit short-term consolidation but it's early yet.
I was wondering yesterday, when we saw little response to the PR, if there was a cadre waiting to see if weakness on the PR would develop like we used to see before entering. When it didn't they may have dipped their toes in the water today. In aggregate, this makes me think there will be no three-day window off the positive catalyst. See comments about the larger trades.
This may be supported by the buy percentage, larger trades configuration, intra-day early rise and long flat periods with minimal variation and VWAP and volume behavior.
There were no pre-market trades.
Just before market open the b/a was 500:100 $1.30/$1.41.
09:30-10:46 opened the day with a 425 buy for $1.37 & 297 more for $1.37. Then came 9:32's 200 $1.37, 9:35's 100 $1.37 and b/a was 1.6K:13.5K $1.36/7, 9:36's 600 $1.37, and 9:40's ~1.4K $1.3612 (150)/$1.37. B/a at 9:44 was 2.9K:16.8K$1.36/7, 9:48 3.1K:17.3K $1.36/7, and 9:53 2.9K:18.7K $1.36/7. 9:41-:53's no-trades was followed by 9:54's 1.1K $1.3601, 9:56's 1.3K $1.3667/$1.37, 9:59 b/a 2.9K:16.8K $1.36/7, 10:01 and :03 did 100 ea. $1.37, 10:05 did 5.1K $1.37(100)->$1.3673, 10:06-:16 did no trades, 10:07 b/a went 4K:17.9K $1.36/7, 10:17-:18 did ~4.6K $1.3699->$1.37, 10:18 b/a went 4.6K:16.9K $1.36/7, 10:21 did 2.2K $1.3650/7, 10:25 b/a went 4.5K:20.7K $1.36/7, 10:27 did ~5.1K $1,36/$1.3650, 10:29 b/a went 3.7K:16.3K $1.36/7, 10:33/:37 did 200 ea. $1.3649, 10:40-:41 did 2.2K $1.37, 10:42 did 175 $1.36, 10:43 b/a was 5.9K:18.8K $1.36/7, and 10:46 did 200 $1.37 to end the period.
10:47-11:15 began with b/a 17.3K:18.9K $1.36/7, and after two no-trades minutes began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 10:49-:51's 42.2K $1.37->$1.3699->$1.37->$1.38->$1.375->$1.38->$1.39. 10:54 b/a was 1.4K:1.1K $1.38/9, 10:59 1.5K:1.8K $1.38/9, 11:06 1.5K:2.3K $1.38/9, 11:09 2.4K:1.7K $1.38/9, and 11:15 2.4K:1.4K $1.38/9. 11:15's ~2.2K $1.3873/$1.39 ended the period.
11:16-12:12, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 (mostly $1.39, some $1.386), initially, on 11:18-:22's ~18.9K $1.39->$1.40->$1.39 (with fractional $1.39xx trades interspersed). B/a at 11:24 was 5.6K:~6.6K $1.39/40 and at 11:26 1.9K:7.6K $1.38/40. 11:38's 2.4K interrupted with $1.38/40. At 11:44 b/a was 1.8K:5.4K $1.39/40, 11:52 1.2K:7.1K $1.39/40, 12:07 2K:~8K $1.39/40, 12:12 1.4K:7.8K $1.38/9. 12:12's 2.5K $1.39 ended the period.
N.B. Sold my small trading block at 11:55 for $1.40, +6.43%, after friction, for 4.5 trading days.
12:13-15:10 began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 12:13's 1K $1.39->$1.38. B/a at 12:14 was 1.3K:10K $1.38/9, 12:23 2K:12.3K $1.38/9, 12:29 3.2K:12.3K, 12:44 2K:10.8K $1.38/9, 12:52 2.8K:2.1K $1.38/9, 12:59 ~3.2K:1.2K $1.38/9 ($1.40 offer in the wings presenting 29.1K), 13:19 ~2.8K:~2.7K $1.38/9, and 13:47 ~3.3K:2.3K $1.38/9. Low-volume was interrupted by 13:49's ~26.6K $1.39->$1.38. B/a at 13:50 was 1.9K:5.2K $1.38/9, 13:59 1.7K:5.4K $1.38/9. Price/volume was again interrupted by 14:00's ~7.8K $1.38 and 14:03's 13.4K $1.3825->$1.38->$1.37(600)->$1.38. 14:04-:19 and 14:37-:49 had no trades. B/a at 14:07 was 2.1K:5.9K $1.38/9, 14:17 900:5.4K $1.38/9, 14:31 1.6K:6.9K $1.38/9, 14:45 1.9K:6.9K $1.38/9, 15:02 1.7K:6.6K $1.38/9. 15:10's 10K $1.39 ended the period.
15:11-15:54 began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 on 15:11's 300 $1.3916/$1.40 (mostly $1.40 at first, more $1.39xx 15:41 on). Low volume was interrupted by 15:41's 8.1K $1.3950/40 and 15:42's 11.8K $1.39/40. 15:25 b/a was 6.7K:35K $1.39/40, 15:29 6.7K:28.2K $1.39/40, 15:42 4.5K:31.5K $1.39/40, 15:48 4.6K:30K $1.39/40, and 15:54 6.4K:40.6K $1.39/40. 15:54's 100 $1.39 ended the period.
15:55-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began the EOD volatility on 15:56's 600 $1.40, 15:57's 21K $1.39/$1.3950->$1.39/40->$1.38/9, 15:58's 1.6K $1.38/$1.3816->$1.38/$1.3850->$1.38/$1.3816, and 15:59's ~1.7K $1.38->$1.39 and 16:00's 497 $1.38 end the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 71,143, 25.25% of day's volume, with a $1.3830 VWAP. The count and percentage are normal for the volume but the largest sizes are somewhat small for a bullish scenario, as is the number of those largest sizes.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart I want to first note that the "bearish reversal 51% of the time" suggested by the "Gravestone Doji" went in our favor this time by giving us the 49% result!
Since 51% is near-random though there's really no surprise in that. The { ... and should be making a break of some kind "soon" ... } is still, unfortunately, pending because we closed right on the descending resistance (descending green line), which was $1.38 today AFAICT. There is some good news ...
Our pattern has a four day trend of higher lows, but for one flat day, with the top being constrained at $1.37 the prior three days. Today we had both a higher low and a top above that $1.37, finally showing the first signs of the break above I've been expecting for more days than is reasonable. Unfortunately the resistance was right at $1.38 AFAICT and that's where we closed so there no first day of break out yet. But we did all this on rising volume, which is a bullish sign.
The only non-bullish thing, other than the close at $1.38, is the intra-day was another early push up and than go flat $1.38/9 ~12:15-1:10, go $1.39/40 until the last few minutes, and then drop to $1.38/9. We've seen this before where I felt price was manipulated up. Can't make that call today because it may have been retail bulls that waited a day before coming in that pushed price higher.
On my one-year chart the 20 and 50-day SMAs continue declining and we saw a small tick up in the 10-day, as predicted and no doubt helped by the higher range and close. The 20 and 50-day SMAs will continue falling a bit longer if we hold in this range.
The oscillators I watch, mixed and biased to weakening yesterday, all flipped to improving except accumulation, which went flat. All but that latter one, full stochastic and ADX-related are above neutral. In aggregate, similar to stuff we've seen before that didn't produce any stellar results, but if I'm right about the mild bullish bias this si the early step in beginning a mild bullish trend that should get us out of short-term consolidation for a short time.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2765 and $1.4389 ($1.2764 and $1.4365 yesterday) continue converging with bot moving towards the mid-point now. Our trading range moved to just above the now slightly rising mid-point.
All in, I suspect this is the early start of getting out of the short-term consolidation with a mild bullish move. But there's some possibilities, suggested by the intra-day behavior, that argues against this - namely a range manipulated up and held flat to benefit somebody. If it was produce instead by bullish retailers, the action was sufficient that we might have exhausted all of them too!
Regardless, I'm going to lean towards the first steps of an small move up and out of short-term consolidation, but back into it after a few days respite at most.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and both are in desirable ranges - quite unusual. The buy percentage of 50%+ has been appearing more frequently recently, maybe indicating a sea-change.
I like the way the spread is behaving - no exaggerated moves even with a good buy percentage. This sort of spread is supportive of longer-term appreciation. It could, and likely will be, wider at some point and still not be a concern if it hangs around 4%-7% or so.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings, still positive at eleven negatives and thirteen positives. Change since 06/07 is -$0.1322, -8.71%.
All in, more suggestive of bullishness, along with maybe some sustainability, than I've seen for a while. Of course my expectation os sustainability is unsustainable though.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
I believe we are starting to exit short-term consolidation but it's early yet.
I was wondering yesterday, when we saw little response to the PR, if there was a cadre waiting to see if weakness on the PR would develop like we used to see before entering. When it didn't they may have dipped their toes in the water today. In aggregate, this makes me think there will be no three-day window off the positive catalyst. See comments about the larger trades.
This may be supported by the buy percentage, larger trades configuration, intra-day early rise and long flat periods with minimal variation and VWAP and volume behavior.
There were no pre-market trades.
Just before market open the b/a was 500:100 $1.30/$1.41.
09:30-10:46 opened the day with a 425 buy for $1.37 & 297 more for $1.37. Then came 9:32's 200 $1.37, 9:35's 100 $1.37 and b/a was 1.6K:13.5K $1.36/7, 9:36's 600 $1.37, and 9:40's ~1.4K $1.3612 (150)/$1.37. B/a at 9:44 was 2.9K:16.8K$1.36/7, 9:48 3.1K:17.3K $1.36/7, and 9:53 2.9K:18.7K $1.36/7. 9:41-:53's no-trades was followed by 9:54's 1.1K $1.3601, 9:56's 1.3K $1.3667/$1.37, 9:59 b/a 2.9K:16.8K $1.36/7, 10:01 and :03 did 100 ea. $1.37, 10:05 did 5.1K $1.37(100)->$1.3673, 10:06-:16 did no trades, 10:07 b/a went 4K:17.9K $1.36/7, 10:17-:18 did ~4.6K $1.3699->$1.37, 10:18 b/a went 4.6K:16.9K $1.36/7, 10:21 did 2.2K $1.3650/7, 10:25 b/a went 4.5K:20.7K $1.36/7, 10:27 did ~5.1K $1,36/$1.3650, 10:29 b/a went 3.7K:16.3K $1.36/7, 10:33/:37 did 200 ea. $1.3649, 10:40-:41 did 2.2K $1.37, 10:42 did 175 $1.36, 10:43 b/a was 5.9K:18.8K $1.36/7, and 10:46 did 200 $1.37 to end the period.
10:47-11:15 began with b/a 17.3K:18.9K $1.36/7, and after two no-trades minutes began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 10:49-:51's 42.2K $1.37->$1.3699->$1.37->$1.38->$1.375->$1.38->$1.39. 10:54 b/a was 1.4K:1.1K $1.38/9, 10:59 1.5K:1.8K $1.38/9, 11:06 1.5K:2.3K $1.38/9, 11:09 2.4K:1.7K $1.38/9, and 11:15 2.4K:1.4K $1.38/9. 11:15's ~2.2K $1.3873/$1.39 ended the period.
11:16-12:12, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 (mostly $1.39, some $1.386), initially, on 11:18-:22's ~18.9K $1.39->$1.40->$1.39 (with fractional $1.39xx trades interspersed). B/a at 11:24 was 5.6K:~6.6K $1.39/40 and at 11:26 1.9K:7.6K $1.38/40. 11:38's 2.4K interrupted with $1.38/40. At 11:44 b/a was 1.8K:5.4K $1.39/40, 11:52 1.2K:7.1K $1.39/40, 12:07 2K:~8K $1.39/40, 12:12 1.4K:7.8K $1.38/9. 12:12's 2.5K $1.39 ended the period.
N.B. Sold my small trading block at 11:55 for $1.40, +6.43%, after friction, for 4.5 trading days.
12:13-15:10 began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 12:13's 1K $1.39->$1.38. B/a at 12:14 was 1.3K:10K $1.38/9, 12:23 2K:12.3K $1.38/9, 12:29 3.2K:12.3K, 12:44 2K:10.8K $1.38/9, 12:52 2.8K:2.1K $1.38/9, 12:59 ~3.2K:1.2K $1.38/9 ($1.40 offer in the wings presenting 29.1K), 13:19 ~2.8K:~2.7K $1.38/9, and 13:47 ~3.3K:2.3K $1.38/9. Low-volume was interrupted by 13:49's ~26.6K $1.39->$1.38. B/a at 13:50 was 1.9K:5.2K $1.38/9, 13:59 1.7K:5.4K $1.38/9. Price/volume was again interrupted by 14:00's ~7.8K $1.38 and 14:03's 13.4K $1.3825->$1.38->$1.37(600)->$1.38. 14:04-:19 and 14:37-:49 had no trades. B/a at 14:07 was 2.1K:5.9K $1.38/9, 14:17 900:5.4K $1.38/9, 14:31 1.6K:6.9K $1.38/9, 14:45 1.9K:6.9K $1.38/9, 15:02 1.7K:6.6K $1.38/9. 15:10's 10K $1.39 ended the period.
15:11-15:54 began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 on 15:11's 300 $1.3916/$1.40 (mostly $1.40 at first, more $1.39xx 15:41 on). Low volume was interrupted by 15:41's 8.1K $1.3950/40 and 15:42's 11.8K $1.39/40. 15:25 b/a was 6.7K:35K $1.39/40, 15:29 6.7K:28.2K $1.39/40, 15:42 4.5K:31.5K $1.39/40, 15:48 4.6K:30K $1.39/40, and 15:54 6.4K:40.6K $1.39/40. 15:54's 100 $1.39 ended the period.
15:55-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began the EOD volatility on 15:56's 600 $1.40, 15:57's 21K $1.39/$1.3950->$1.39/40->$1.38/9, 15:58's 1.6K $1.38/$1.3816->$1.38/$1.3850->$1.38/$1.3816, and 15:59's ~1.7K $1.38->$1.39 and 16:00's 497 $1.38 end the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 71,143, 25.25% of day's volume, with a $1.3830 VWAP. The count and percentage are normal for the volume but the largest sizes are somewhat small for a bullish scenario, as is the number of those largest sizes.
Nice movements for VWAP and buy percentage today and supported by volume distribution. Combined with the rising volume above yesterday's we have some early signs of possibly leaving short-term consolidation, but it is a bit early to think about that.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:46 25215 $1.3600 $1.3700 $34,471.54 $1.3671 8.95% 68.68% Incl 10:05 $1.3673 4,900
11:15 46990 $1.3699 $1.3900 $64,674.05 $1.3763 16.68% 76.48% Incl 10:49 $1.3700 9,076 10:50 $1.3800 5,000
10:51 $1.3800 5,000
12:12 43715 $1.3800 $1.4000 $60,852.27 $1.3920 15.51% 58.71% Incl 11:22 $1.3901 5,000
15:10 98442 $1.3700 $1.3900 $136,526.73 $1.3869 34.94% 56.89% Incl 12:50 $1.3900 5,287 13:00 $1.3899 5,000
13:49 $1.3900 4,595 4,305 6,880
14:00 $1.3800 5,000 14:03 $1.3825 7,000
15:54 39111 $1.3900 $1.4000 $54,579.53 $1.3955 13.88% 54.76% Incl 15:42 $1.3900 4,100
16:00 25372 $1.3800 $1.4000 $35,271.17 $1.3902 9.00% 54.37%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Such an unusually nice set of numbers make me want to get all bullish but I've gotten to jaded to do so. I'll wait and see if there's any follow-on.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.24% 1.49% 2.19% 2.99% 55.67%
Prior -0.74% 0.00% 0.00% -0.74% 56.01%
On my minimal chart I want to first note that the "bearish reversal 51% of the time" suggested by the "Gravestone Doji" went in our favor this time by giving us the 49% result!
Since 51% is near-random though there's really no surprise in that. The { ... and should be making a break of some kind "soon" ... } is still, unfortunately, pending because we closed right on the descending resistance (descending green line), which was $1.38 today AFAICT. There is some good news ... Our pattern has a four day trend of higher lows, but for one flat day, with the top being constrained at $1.37 the prior three days. Today we had both a higher low and a top above that $1.37, finally showing the first signs of the break above I've been expecting for more days than is reasonable. Unfortunately the resistance was right at $1.38 AFAICT and that's where we closed so there no first day of break out yet. But we did all this on rising volume, which is a bullish sign.
The only non-bullish thing, other than the close at $1.38, is the intra-day was another early push up and than go flat $1.38/9 ~12:15-1:10, go $1.39/40 until the last few minutes, and then drop to $1.38/9. We've seen this before where I felt price was manipulated up. Can't make that call today because it may have been retail bulls that waited a day before coming in that pushed price higher.
On my one-year chart the 20 and 50-day SMAs continue declining and we saw a small tick up in the 10-day, as predicted and no doubt helped by the higher range and close. The 20 and 50-day SMAs will continue falling a bit longer if we hold in this range.
The oscillators I watch, mixed and biased to weakening yesterday, all flipped to improving except accumulation, which went flat. All but that latter one, full stochastic and ADX-related are above neutral. In aggregate, similar to stuff we've seen before that didn't produce any stellar results, but if I'm right about the mild bullish bias this si the early step in beginning a mild bullish trend that should get us out of short-term consolidation for a short time.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2765 and $1.4389 ($1.2764 and $1.4365 yesterday) continue converging with bot moving towards the mid-point now. Our trading range moved to just above the now slightly rising mid-point.
All in, I suspect this is the early start of getting out of the short-term consolidation with a mild bullish move. But there's some possibilities, suggested by the intra-day behavior, that argues against this - namely a range manipulated up and held flat to benefit somebody. If it was produce instead by bullish retailers, the action was sufficient that we might have exhausted all of them too!
Regardless, I'm going to lean towards the first steps of an small move up and out of short-term consolidation, but back into it after a few days respite at most.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and both are in desirable ranges - quite unusual. The buy percentage of 50%+ has been appearing more frequently recently, maybe indicating a sea-change.
I like the way the spread is behaving - no exaggerated moves even with a good buy percentage. This sort of spread is supportive of longer-term appreciation. It could, and likely will be, wider at some point and still not be a concern if it hangs around 4%-7% or so.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings, still positive at eleven negatives and thirteen positives. Change since 06/07 is -$0.1322, -8.71%.
All in, more suggestive of bullishness, along with maybe some sustainability, than I've seen for a while. Of course my expectation os sustainability is unsustainable though.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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