Thursday, June 30, 2016 9:25:04 AM
I continue to think we will re-enter short-term consolidation characterized by no big moves and volume reducing again.
After the aberrant pre-market and early up/down through ~10:00, we entered periods of a marginal step up or down followed by long flattish periods with narrowing channels (intra-day consolidation) leading to a close flat with the open. Volume was good even if we remove the ~40.5K pre-market volume.
There were 135 pre-market trades, 9:03-9:28, totaling 40,842 shares that ranged from $1.40 to $1.58. Most of the higher prices were early in the pre-market and $1.41 was seen just before the open.
09:30-09:56 opened the day on a 1,611 sell for $1.38 and another 85,788 that traded $1.40-$1.45. That was followed by a steep medium/high-volume fall doing 9:31's 37K $1.45->$1.44, 9:32's ~16.6K $1.44->$1.41->$1.40->$1.42->$1.43, 9:33's ~7.2K $1.43->$1.42->$1.44->$1.43, 9:34's 61K $1.43->$1.44->$1.42->$1.4225, 9:35's 33.7K $1.43->$1.42->$1.41->$1.4292->$1.41->$1.40->$1.39->$1.38, 9:36's 5.7K $1.3650->$1.37->$1.38->$1.39->$1.40, and then low-volume 9:37-:46's sideways 18.8K $1.37/40, and 9:47-:56's ~60.9K $1.36->$1.30->$1.34 ended the period.
09:57-11:08 began a long, slow, very low/no-volume climb back up on 9:57's 3.9K $1.31->$1.34, hit 10:00's ~4.9K $1.35, 10:21's 400 $1.36, 10:33's 250 $1.37, 10:55's 200 $1.39, and 11:08's 100 $1.40 ended the period.
11:09-12:57, after a no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume flattish $$1.38/$1.40 and ended the period on 12:57's 100 $1.40.
12:58-13:15 began a small medium-speed drop on 12:58's 1.2K $1.39 and 13:15's ~1.3K $1.35 ended the period.
13:16-14:03 began a very low/no-volume flattish $1.35/6 (interrupted by 13:27's 100 $1.37 and 13:35's 1K $1.34) on 13:16's ~20K $1.35/6. 14:03's ~11.5K $1.36 ended the period.
14:04-15:19, after fourteen no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume rise from $1.36/7 on 14:18's 100 $1.37. B/a at 14:21 was 1.2K:1.8K $1.36/7 and 14:35's trade of 100 hit $1.38. 14:45 b/a was ~400:2.2K $1.37/8. 15:10's 200 hit $1.39 and 15:19's 200 $1.39 ended the period.
15:20-15:51 dropped to begin very low/no-volume $1.37/8 on 15:20's 200 $1.38. At 15:36 b/a was 200:2.1K $1.37/8 and 15:40 100:1.8K $1.37/8. 15:51's ~700 $1.37 ended the period.
15:52-16:00, after two no-trades minutes saw b/a at 15:53 of 2.8K:1.2K $1.36/8 and began very low/no-volume $1.36/8 on 15:54's 5K $1.3601. At 15:57 b/a came back to 2.2K:1.6K $1.37/8. 16:00's 286 sell for $1.38 closed the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
In/Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 172,939, 33.27% of day's volume, with a $1.4017 VWAP.
Note the odd distribution of larger trades. Pre-market, 7.8% of volume, had no larger trades and those were "clumped" very early and mid-afternoon. Note also how quickly VWAP descended. I found no catalyst available for the pre-market volume and price behavior and I began to wonder if there was one of those private-subscription "newsletters" or a "pump-and-dump" that forecast coming riches so that some "ruefully wrong long" with "connections" could dump out.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:28 40550 $1.4000 $1.5800 $59,740.89 $1.4733 7.80% 73.07%
09:56 328090 $1.3000 $1.4500 $463,207.82 $1.4118 63.11% 50.23% Incl 09:30 $1.4399 10,600 $1.4100 10,000
$1.4500 23,360 4,176
09:34 $1.4300 44,000 09:35 $1.4100 5,800
09:35 $1.4093 5,000 $1.4100 4,500
09:36 $1.3800 4,600 09:42 $1.3795 9,000
09:53 $1.3400 7,000 $1.3401 7,300
09:54 $1.3401 5,453 09:56 $1.3299 8,850
11:08 34750 $1.3100 $1.4000 $47,086.83 $1.3550 6.68% 50.57%
12:57 21205 $1.3800 $1.4000 $29,575.16 $1.3947 4.08% 51.79%
13:15 16164 $1.3500 $1.3900 $22,181.85 $1.3723 3.11% 51.38%
14:03 40348 $1.3412 $1.3700 $54,713.56 $1.3560 7.76% 52.93% Incl 13:16 $1.3500 4,300 $1.3600 10,000
14:03 $1.3570 4,000
15:19 17696 $1.3600 $1.3900 $24,339.70 $1.3754 3.40% 54.24%
15:51 4326 $1.3700 $1.3800 $5,952.83 $1.3761 0.83% 53.99%
16:00 14080 $1.3600 $1.3800 $19,247.22 $1.3670 2.71% 53.72% Incl 15:54 $1.3601 5,000
It may also be one of those "rags" that monitor and alert on volume/price movements got triggered by yesterday's { ... The spread was again quite large and was produced exclusively in the pre-market. The normal trading day was much less dramatic after the open, being essentially flattish all day. } Check below for a reminder of the spread and high yesterday. I don't know how likely this is.
Another possibility is a news "leak", evidence of which has been seen often in the past, about a positive catalyst. If that's the case we should see a PR tomorrow or maybe a couple days later. In that case the buyers today will likely be handsomely rewarded.
I'm not giving any odds on which is most likely - suffice it to say I garnered ~6%+, after friction, on my $1.33 trading block bought on 6/27.
I can tell you from personal experience, many times over, it is better to be lucky than good!
I'm not sure though that I qualify for either, and certainly not (yet?) "good". On the traditional TA front, movements were:
These look a lot better than they really are, thanks to the pre-market "blizzard" with an unknown cause. At the end of the day we ended flat on the open of $1.38. And if you look at the intra-day breakdown above you can observe the effects of "manna from heaven" on some percentage of the longs and/or shorters (we'll have to check my unconventional stuff below for that latter assessment).__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 6.98% 0.78% 16.18% 2.22% 325.71%
Prior -6.52% 3.20% -2.86% 8.00% -78.13%
On my minimal chart recall yesterday's { the important thing was we closed above the $1.34 resistance, so the break down is not confirmed. Combined with the volume and intra-day behavior I suspect "Window Dressing" was done and this seems to confirm that.
We don't have a lot of room before we hit the short-term descending resistance (upper descending green line), ~$1.38 crossing the medium-term rising resistance. This situation argues for another break of some kind, likely up or sideways out of the triangle formed by those two lines if my "Window Dressing" guess is correct. }
Today's pre-market unexplained pop up muddies the waters, making a reasonable assessment less certain. Regardless, today's open and close being above, again, the rising medium-term support/resistance (rising white line) and the descending resistance (upper falling green line) strongly suggests that near-term weakness is less likely. Adding in the strongly rising volume, even if we back out the pre-market 40.5K, and the behavior of the Bollinger band (and our positioning within it) would make an argument for some positive near-term movement not outlandish.
However, the volume change was sufficient to make me think exhaustion of the near-term buyers is likely and the best we should expect for the short-term is what I suggested in prior days - re-entry into consolidation.
On my one-year chart, as with yesterday, the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continue falling and if we hold this range will continue so, but for a couple days small flattening and then a rise in the 10-day SMA. I'm also sticking with yesterday's { ... looking like we may try to go back into consolidation ... }
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday had all but one improved to some degree, all improved today. This likely due more to volume than the actual price action. All but Williams %R are below neutral and nothing is overbought or oversold, although Williams %R is nearing overbought.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2932 and $1.4822 ($1.2932 and $1.4822 yesterday) flattened out and are moving parallel. We are trading around the mid-point for now. We still "pushed" the lower limit, but it doesn't seem that will continue.
All in, I'm voting for re-entering short-term consolidation and suspect we are also already in medium-term consolidation. So, no big moves expected right away.
[chart]investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2016/6/30/vglcaCpstFtrRSEODVolShtBS20160629.png[/chart
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not so good, and both percentages changes were significant enough to not be ignored. The short percentage is just below the maximum I consider "normal" for a normal market, so it's not too negative an indicator for now. The buy percentage is a better story as it's the second day over 50%, which I think is needed, on average, for sustained appreciation. But at two days only we can't consider this a trend, especially coming off the readings the prior few days.
Adding in the aberrant pre-market behavior, sans knowing the cause, I don't believe the buy percentage will hold. I do hope it doesn't recede to the prior abysmal levels. If it doesn't I think my expected short-term consolidation re-entry will appear.
The spread must be ignored today due to the aberrant action I mentioned.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings improved to twelve negatives and twelve positives. Change since 05/25 is -$0.1436, -9.28%.
All in, yesterday's { ... best guess is flat at best and more likely mild short-term weakness } seems reasonable.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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