Poet Technologies Inc (POET)

[mackwheaton]

Proto,
Lots to cover there. First, I think the EBITDA number is a non issue, I am really disappointed that they even mentioned it, since it is forward looking at 2 yrs out. I would hope their focus is on growth and not earnings for up to 5 years out. They will need to plow their revenues back in to building the business. Cash in hand is good, no debt on the books and NRE revs are anticipated.

I view the AOC as a rudimentary POET device that will be essentially a "pass through" cable for transfer of data, very low risk, but highly demonstrable of the technology. As they said, very low blast radius for a failed cable. I can't begin to estimate sales, but it appears production runs could reach the 10-20 million optical engines per month. So let's say 5 million to be ultra conservative, and 2 to a cable that is 30 million cables per year. If they sell at $20 that's $600 in revs. I am assuming they have some big buyers lined up. But let's say they forecast in that range by end of year 2017. That is a single product. I don't think they would queue production toward that level unless they know they have buyers lined up. But again let's halve that and say $300 million by end of 2017.

That does not include detector sales or any other product. If you look at the Corp presentation the product roadmap evolves over the next 3.5 years to on board optoelectronics. And it does not include any DenseLight products that may be enhanced by the poet technology.

Share price -- Over hyped expectations by the prior management, massive options have decimated the share price over the past two years. This group are results oriented. Over promise under deliver is minimized. The halt for the denselight acquisition fueled optimism of bigger ($$$$$) news and combined with the EBITDA statement at the THM have dumped the share price. There are no signs of extensive delays, failures, etc. We could drift lower absent of ness at or by the AGM.

I think the announcement of the prototype will be accompanied by NRE revs, strictly my thoughts though. And recognition of the unique properties of the Poet technology is what is needed to wake up the share price. Gotta run.