Tuesday, June 28, 2016 8:03:01 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/27 2016 EOD
All things considered, the two-day volume suggests we ought to get a bounce today as most of the sellers should be exhausted. But everything else argues for going down to test the $1.15/6 support again. This seems especially likely if the "Window Dressing" goes a couple more days. I don't know when it normally ends - T+3 settlement suggests it may have ended today but that's just a guess by me.
If we don't get a rebound today to >=$1.34 our consolidation seems ended. Preferable would be >=$1.38 but that seems unlikely *unless* we get either a catalyst PR or low volume with someone interested in pushing price up being in the market.
Early in the day there were enough similarities to some prior days that I thought a quick one-day in and out scalp was possible and got a small trading block at $1.33. But ...
I had a big omission - I forgot about "Window Dressing" season when managers dump losers and add to their winners to lock in their bonuses. Would I have felt other than "consolidation" had I remembered? I don't know. In the past I have given it a fair amount of weight with mixed results.
The highlight of the day was the open two cents down and rise to flat with yesterday's close. It was really a typical "Open high and go lower all day". By 9:41 we tested the support at $1.34 and bounced up to $1.39 the next minute followed by a slow sag through 10:20 to $1.34 again. A short $1.34/5 sideways was terminated by a high-volume (~53K) $1.34/8 that began a rapid high-volume drop to $1.30 by 11:02.
That wasn't too bad as we recovered a bit to go flat $1.31/2 11:23-13:35 and I fully expected we'd see a repeat of the last couple days - step up a bit, got flat and end at some reasonable level around the prior close.
That wasn't the behavior today. The step up that should have come around 13:36 was a step down and go flat $1.30/1 followed by 15:22's ~23K $1.31->$1.28 and recover to $1.29/30 by 15:29 and go flat there through 15:47.
The came the crash begun with 15:48's ~60.5K $1.28/30 followed by a high and low-volume rush to $1.25/6 at 15:59. The closing trade was $1.25.
Earlier in the day there was some optimism in me from seeing intra-day buy percentages much improved from what had been recently seen. After the usual early volatile readings were diluted out, the nadir came on 10:45's ~27%. It was followed by a flattish ~32%-~37% through 15:45 - not great but much better than the, e.g., ~19% and similar seen recently.
Unfortunately, the EOD price crash negated all that.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 1,855 sell for $1.38 and 10 more trades totaling 1.4K for $1.40. B/a became 100:1.3K $1.36/9. Then came 9:31-35's no-trades, 9:36's 400 $1.3899, 9:40-:41's ~7.7K $1.38->$1.36->$1.34, 9:42's ~18.1K $1.34->$1.39, and b/a became 4.4K:2.3K $1.36/9. Then was 9:43's 1.7K $1.36/7, 9:45's ~1.8K $1.3719, 9:47's ~6.8K $1.3729->$1.3625, 9:49's ~600 $1.3615->$1.37, and we started very low/no-volume $1.36/7. At 9:55 b/a was 5K:1.2K $1.36/7 and ~2K $1.3601 traded to end the period.
09:56-10:44, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.35/6 when it stepped down on 9:58's 16.3K $1.3607->$1.35. At 10:04 b/a was 5.4K:7.5K $1.35/6, 10:09 ~24.7K:4.9K $1.34/5, 10:31 ~20K:6.8K $1.34/5, 10:40 15.6K:3.2K $1.34/5. 10:44's 1.6K $1.35 ended the period.
10:45-11:19, after a no-trades minute, began a step down with very low/no-volume $1.31/2, initially, on 10:46's ~53.2K $1.35->$1.3450->$1.35->$1.37->$1.3799->$1,35->$1.34, 10:49's ~45.9K $1.34->$1.33, 10:50's 2.7K $1.32->$1.33, and 10:52's ~45.3K $1.33->$1.32->$1.31. 10:58 b/a was ~24.4K:~2.4K $1.30/2. Range moved to $1.30/1 on 11:01-"02's 17.6K $1.30/$1.3040. 11:06 b/a was 15.8K:1.1K $1.30/1, 11:11 17.4K:3.3K $1.30/1, and 11:18 13:3K:3K $1.30/1. 11:19's 4.8K $1.30 ended the period.
11:20-13:33, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.31/2 on 11:22's ~10.2K $1.30->$1.31->$1.32. B/a at 11:27 was 900:3.6K $1.31/2, 11:31 1.1K:3.8K $1.31/2, 11:45 2.7K:1.7K $1.31/2, 11:59 500:3.8K $1.31/2, 12:07 1.3K:4.5K $1.31/2, 12:19 1.6K:4.8K $1.31/2, 12:27 900:1.5K $1.31/2, 12:55 1.6K:3.1K $1.31/2, 13:04 3.7K:1.2K $1.31/2. 13:33's 300 $1.31/$1.3180 ended the period.
13:34-15:20, after two no-trades minutes, stepped down on 13:36's ~2.4K $1.31->$1.30. That began very low/no-volume $1.30/1. At 13:58 b/a was 35.7K:6K $1.30/1. 15:20's 200 $1.30 ended the period.
15:21-15:46, after a no-trades minute, dropped on 15:22's ~23.2K $1.30->$1.29->$1.2802 and bounced back up to $1.29/30 on 15:23-:29 7.3K and went low-volume $1.29/30 until 15:46's 2.7K $1.29/30 ended the period. 15:21 b/a was 13.8K:4.6K $1.30/1, 15:23 b/a was 10.7K:300 $1.28/9, 15:29 b/a was 1.8K:2.3K $1.29/30, 15:35 b/a was 1.9K:2.3K $1.29/30, 15:38 b/a was 3.9K:1.8K $1.29/30, and 15:41 b/a was 4.3K:1.7K $1.29/30.
15:47-16:00, after one no-trades minute, did a rapid deep drop on 15:48's ~60.5K $1.2950->$1.29->$1.28, 15:49's 100 $1.28, 15:51-52's 29.3K $1.2816->$1.29->$1.28->$1.27, 15:53-:56's ~5.2K $1.2701->$1.27->$1.26, 15:58's 1K $1.27 and 15:59's 26K $1.26->$1.25->$1.26. 16:00's 400 sell for $1.25 ended the period and day. 15:50 b/a was 15.9K:1.6K $1.28/9, 15:53 b/a was 300:2K $1.27/8, and 15:58 b/a was 5.1K:2K $1.26/8.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 187,946, 33.67% of day's volume, with a $1.3281 VWAP.
On my one-year chart there's not a lot to say other than "down". The 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs are falling and if we hold this range will continue so.
The oscillators I watch were all down and RSI and Williams %R are in oversold and full stochastic is nearly so. All are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2904 and $1.5081 ($1.3319 and $1.5081 yesterday) switched from converging to diverging as the lower limit fell while the upper limit went flat. We have a falling mid-point as the lower limit descends.
As mentioned above, I had forgotten about "Window Dressing" time. I suspect this had a lot to do with today's behavior.
All in, factoring in not knowing how long "Window Dressing" might continue, it's really hard to make a guess with any degree of certainty using the conventional TA. That suggests we continue weakening except that volume was down a small amount. The volume was high two consecutive days, offering the possibility that sellers are nearing exhaustion. In this case we could see a low-volume rebound begin. OTOH, the break below support has not yet confirmed and if we do rebound we would need to see a close above $1.34 to have any hint that consolidation might return. It would be preferable that we close >= $1.38, above the medium-term rising support (rising white line) before buying into any potential bullishness.
If we don't see a rebound ISTM that the $1.15/6 price-point support will be tested *unless* volume returns to very low levels.
So based on conventional TA, I'm biased negative with a caution that we could rebound some and would look for it to be strong enough to get back above the medium=term rising support to suggest any bullishness. Back above $1.34 only would just suggest we continue consolidating.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage entered the bottom of my normal range (needs re-check). The buy percentage improved but is still well below that needed for sustained appreciation. There is on other bit of good news about that - intra-day was better than several recent day (see above).
The spread is horrible and in a down-trend suggests more to go. Worse, it was produced by our old nemesis "open high a go lower".
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings with thirteen negatives and eleven positives, returning to the longer-term trend. Change since 05/23 is -$0.2110, -13.80%. I think these last three items are going to get worse.
All in, nothing positive enough to get other than bearish for now. The short percentage in isolation doesn't suggest a rebound.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
All things considered, the two-day volume suggests we ought to get a bounce today as most of the sellers should be exhausted. But everything else argues for going down to test the $1.15/6 support again. This seems especially likely if the "Window Dressing" goes a couple more days. I don't know when it normally ends - T+3 settlement suggests it may have ended today but that's just a guess by me.
If we don't get a rebound today to >=$1.34 our consolidation seems ended. Preferable would be >=$1.38 but that seems unlikely *unless* we get either a catalyst PR or low volume with someone interested in pushing price up being in the market.
Early in the day there were enough similarities to some prior days that I thought a quick one-day in and out scalp was possible and got a small trading block at $1.33. But ...
I had a big omission - I forgot about "Window Dressing" season when managers dump losers and add to their winners to lock in their bonuses. Would I have felt other than "consolidation" had I remembered? I don't know. In the past I have given it a fair amount of weight with mixed results.
The highlight of the day was the open two cents down and rise to flat with yesterday's close. It was really a typical "Open high and go lower all day". By 9:41 we tested the support at $1.34 and bounced up to $1.39 the next minute followed by a slow sag through 10:20 to $1.34 again. A short $1.34/5 sideways was terminated by a high-volume (~53K) $1.34/8 that began a rapid high-volume drop to $1.30 by 11:02.
That wasn't too bad as we recovered a bit to go flat $1.31/2 11:23-13:35 and I fully expected we'd see a repeat of the last couple days - step up a bit, got flat and end at some reasonable level around the prior close.
That wasn't the behavior today. The step up that should have come around 13:36 was a step down and go flat $1.30/1 followed by 15:22's ~23K $1.31->$1.28 and recover to $1.29/30 by 15:29 and go flat there through 15:47.
The came the crash begun with 15:48's ~60.5K $1.28/30 followed by a high and low-volume rush to $1.25/6 at 15:59. The closing trade was $1.25.
Earlier in the day there was some optimism in me from seeing intra-day buy percentages much improved from what had been recently seen. After the usual early volatile readings were diluted out, the nadir came on 10:45's ~27%. It was followed by a flattish ~32%-~37% through 15:45 - not great but much better than the, e.g., ~19% and similar seen recently.
Unfortunately, the EOD price crash negated all that.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 1,855 sell for $1.38 and 10 more trades totaling 1.4K for $1.40. B/a became 100:1.3K $1.36/9. Then came 9:31-35's no-trades, 9:36's 400 $1.3899, 9:40-:41's ~7.7K $1.38->$1.36->$1.34, 9:42's ~18.1K $1.34->$1.39, and b/a became 4.4K:2.3K $1.36/9. Then was 9:43's 1.7K $1.36/7, 9:45's ~1.8K $1.3719, 9:47's ~6.8K $1.3729->$1.3625, 9:49's ~600 $1.3615->$1.37, and we started very low/no-volume $1.36/7. At 9:55 b/a was 5K:1.2K $1.36/7 and ~2K $1.3601 traded to end the period.
09:56-10:44, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.35/6 when it stepped down on 9:58's 16.3K $1.3607->$1.35. At 10:04 b/a was 5.4K:7.5K $1.35/6, 10:09 ~24.7K:4.9K $1.34/5, 10:31 ~20K:6.8K $1.34/5, 10:40 15.6K:3.2K $1.34/5. 10:44's 1.6K $1.35 ended the period.
10:45-11:19, after a no-trades minute, began a step down with very low/no-volume $1.31/2, initially, on 10:46's ~53.2K $1.35->$1.3450->$1.35->$1.37->$1.3799->$1,35->$1.34, 10:49's ~45.9K $1.34->$1.33, 10:50's 2.7K $1.32->$1.33, and 10:52's ~45.3K $1.33->$1.32->$1.31. 10:58 b/a was ~24.4K:~2.4K $1.30/2. Range moved to $1.30/1 on 11:01-"02's 17.6K $1.30/$1.3040. 11:06 b/a was 15.8K:1.1K $1.30/1, 11:11 17.4K:3.3K $1.30/1, and 11:18 13:3K:3K $1.30/1. 11:19's 4.8K $1.30 ended the period.
11:20-13:33, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.31/2 on 11:22's ~10.2K $1.30->$1.31->$1.32. B/a at 11:27 was 900:3.6K $1.31/2, 11:31 1.1K:3.8K $1.31/2, 11:45 2.7K:1.7K $1.31/2, 11:59 500:3.8K $1.31/2, 12:07 1.3K:4.5K $1.31/2, 12:19 1.6K:4.8K $1.31/2, 12:27 900:1.5K $1.31/2, 12:55 1.6K:3.1K $1.31/2, 13:04 3.7K:1.2K $1.31/2. 13:33's 300 $1.31/$1.3180 ended the period.
13:34-15:20, after two no-trades minutes, stepped down on 13:36's ~2.4K $1.31->$1.30. That began very low/no-volume $1.30/1. At 13:58 b/a was 35.7K:6K $1.30/1. 15:20's 200 $1.30 ended the period.
15:21-15:46, after a no-trades minute, dropped on 15:22's ~23.2K $1.30->$1.29->$1.2802 and bounced back up to $1.29/30 on 15:23-:29 7.3K and went low-volume $1.29/30 until 15:46's 2.7K $1.29/30 ended the period. 15:21 b/a was 13.8K:4.6K $1.30/1, 15:23 b/a was 10.7K:300 $1.28/9, 15:29 b/a was 1.8K:2.3K $1.29/30, 15:35 b/a was 1.9K:2.3K $1.29/30, 15:38 b/a was 3.9K:1.8K $1.29/30, and 15:41 b/a was 4.3K:1.7K $1.29/30.
15:47-16:00, after one no-trades minute, did a rapid deep drop on 15:48's ~60.5K $1.2950->$1.29->$1.28, 15:49's 100 $1.28, 15:51-52's 29.3K $1.2816->$1.29->$1.28->$1.27, 15:53-:56's ~5.2K $1.2701->$1.27->$1.26, 15:58's 1K $1.27 and 15:59's 26K $1.26->$1.25->$1.26. 16:00's 400 sell for $1.25 ended the period and day. 15:50 b/a was 15.9K:1.6K $1.28/9, 15:53 b/a was 300:2K $1.27/8, and 15:58 b/a was 5.1K:2K $1.26/8.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 187,946, 33.67% of day's volume, with a $1.3281 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 50266 $1.3400 $1.4000 $68,817.48 $1.3691 9.00% 35.83% Incl 09:42 $1.3900 5,092 09:47 $1.3729 5,000
10:44 38905 $1.3400 $1.3607 $52,508.15 $1.3497 6.97% 26.72% Incl 09:58 $1.3525 8,500
11:19 187381 $1.3000 $1.3799 $250,080.72 $1.3346 33.57% 36.45% Incl 10:46 $1.3699 5,000 $1.3700 9,797
10:46 $1.3799 23,077 10:49 $1.3400 4,194
10:49 $1.3400 9,740 10,000 $1.3300 5,106
10:52 $1.3200 10,300 19,600
11:02 $1.3040 6,000
13:33 51607 $1.3000 $1.3200 $67,715.94 $1.3121 9.24% 35.28% Incl 11:47 $1.3101 6,040
15:20 58897 $1.3000 $1.3100 $76,725.80 $1.3027 10.55% 32.77%
15:46 46549 $1.2800 $1.3100 $60,398.38 $1.2975 8.34% 32.15% Incl 15:29 $1.2999 4,900
16:00 122479 $1.2500 $1.3000 $156,706.16 $1.2795 21.94% 27.09% Incl 15:48 $1.2900 21,600 24,000
15:52 $1.2800 5,000 5,000
15:59 $1.2500 5,000
On my minimal chart we topped barely above the descending short-term resistance (falling upper green line), thanks to the "high" opening minute of $1.38->$1.40, and went on and penetrated, and closed below, our near-term supports - the rising medium-term one (rising white line) at ~$1.37 and the strong price-point support at $1.34. The major damage occurred in the last 40 minutes as we plummeted and closed at $1.25. The next apparent support is down at $1.15/6 and it doesn't appear to be strong one, based on volumes and number of tests. Today proved the truth of yesterday's { It would have been so easy to just blow through that support on this kind of volume. } Today had volume very similar to yesterday's.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% -6.72% 0.00% -10.71% -14.07%
Prior -0.72% -2.90% -0.71% -0.71% 413.29%
On my one-year chart there's not a lot to say other than "down". The 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs are falling and if we hold this range will continue so.
The oscillators I watch were all down and RSI and Williams %R are in oversold and full stochastic is nearly so. All are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2904 and $1.5081 ($1.3319 and $1.5081 yesterday) switched from converging to diverging as the lower limit fell while the upper limit went flat. We have a falling mid-point as the lower limit descends.
As mentioned above, I had forgotten about "Window Dressing" time. I suspect this had a lot to do with today's behavior.
All in, factoring in not knowing how long "Window Dressing" might continue, it's really hard to make a guess with any degree of certainty using the conventional TA. That suggests we continue weakening except that volume was down a small amount. The volume was high two consecutive days, offering the possibility that sellers are nearing exhaustion. In this case we could see a low-volume rebound begin. OTOH, the break below support has not yet confirmed and if we do rebound we would need to see a close above $1.34 to have any hint that consolidation might return. It would be preferable that we close >= $1.38, above the medium-term rising support (rising white line) before buying into any potential bullishness.
If we don't see a rebound ISTM that the $1.15/6 price-point support will be tested *unless* volume returns to very low levels.
So based on conventional TA, I'm biased negative with a caution that we could rebound some and would look for it to be strong enough to get back above the medium=term rising support to suggest any bullishness. Back above $1.34 only would just suggest we continue consolidating.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage entered the bottom of my normal range (needs re-check). The buy percentage improved but is still well below that needed for sustained appreciation. There is on other bit of good news about that - intra-day was better than several recent day (see above).
The spread is horrible and in a down-trend suggests more to go. Worse, it was produced by our old nemesis "open high a go lower".
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings with thirteen negatives and eleven positives, returning to the longer-term trend. Change since 05/23 is -$0.2110, -13.80%. I think these last three items are going to get worse.
All in, nothing positive enough to get other than bearish for now. The short percentage in isolation doesn't suggest a rebound.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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