Jones Soda (JSDA)

[Chart Addict]

This is a discussion group dedicated to Jones Soda. Therefore, I am constrained to limit my analysis to a related stock. Find here the entire trading history of Cott Soda, one of JSDA's primary competitors.

The NASDAQ site (where I went first because COT trades on the NYSE) is currently offline for maintenance, so I'm pulling the company description off of Finance.Yahoo.com, which says:

"Cott Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells beverages on behalf of retailers, brand owners, and distributors worldwide. Its product lines include carbonated soft drinks, juice and juice-based products, clear and flavored waters, energy drinks and shots, sports products, new age beverages, ready-to-drink teas and alcoholic beverages, beverage concentrates, liquid enhancers, and freezables, as well as hot chocolate, coffee, malt drinks, creamers/whiteners, and cereals. The company offers its products under various retailer brands, which include Cott and Red Rain brand in North America and the United Kingdom; Stars & Stripes, Vess, Vintage, So Clear, Shanstar, Harvest Classic, Chadwick Bay, Exact, Alhambra, Belmont Springs, Deep Rock, Hinckley Springs, Sparkletts, Crystal Springs, Kentwood Springs, Mount Olympus Standard Coffee, and Javarama brands in the United States; Emerge, Red Rooster, MacB, Carters, Calypso, Mr. Freeze, Jubbly, Suso, Cafe Nueva, and Ben Shaws brands in the United Kingdom; Stars & Stripes brand in Mexico; and RC brand name in approximately 120 countries and territories outside of North America. It also provides contract manufacturing services. The company?s customers include grocery, mass-merchandise, drugstore, wholesale, and convenience store chains. Cott Corporation was founded in 1955 and is based in Tampa, Florida."

Wow - that's a real mouthful, but this company has been around for quite some time. The question is what is it really worth? Let's look at the chart, shall we?

Click to enlarge image.

The long term chart show two differences of opinion. There have been no splits along the way, and certainly some adjustment for inflation should be made to put that initial peak of $37.75 into perspective.

According to the CPI Inflation Calculator, $37.75 had the same buying power in 1994 as does $61.19 today. Let's just say the stock traded at around the equivalent of $60 per share at the time, shall we? What calamity could have possibly driven the price down to $5.00 in no time at all, and to a subsequent low of only $1.37 in early 1999?

Well, as we can see, good fortune returned during late 2004, when the stock hit a high of $31.65. It was not a long-lived high, though. Before you know it, the stock was back down to $0.58 in late 2008. Since then, it's inched up to around $14.00 per share. What gives?

So, what is any stock truly worth? I would maintain that the chart is more a reflection of hopes, dreams, and aspirations on the one hand, and fear of loss on the other. Once trends begin, they may abruptly reverse, and continue on unabated in one direction or another, completely out of lockstep with the company's performance or potential for years to follow.

That JSDA has already gone through one high-price cycle does not concern me. The true questions are, 1) whether this is a true trend reversal, and 2) if so, where may it lead?