Saturday, June 25, 2016 11:37:13 AM
Even factoring in the possible BREXIT effects and the fact that our $1.34 support held and we closed at the descending short-term resistance I can't bring myself to hold with my "mildly bullish" stance. My gut, likely emotionally driven, says "mildly bullish" but my brain interprets the conventional and my unconventional TA as neutral at best. The big negative would be the rising and large volume on a down (slightly if the close is used, significantly if the VWAP is used) day and the intra-day buy percentages these last couple of days.
So I'm going to neutral with my best assessment being continued consolidation near-term.
Oddities were enough to make me wonder if the margin calls caused by the BREXIT vote I heard about on CNBC were at play here too. Per the boob-tube chatter a lot of funds were on the wrong side of the outcome and the huge fall in the British Pound forced selling of other assets to cover positions taken on margin.
We'll never know.
One more oddity was the larger-than-normal opening block trade and the very large closing block. I don't have a guess as to why these actions occurred.
Early action looks to have been affected by the BREXIT vote passing, based on the 100.1K trade at 9:35. This caused us to see an early spread that went to our known strong $1.34 support, below the rising medium-term support (minimal chart's rising white line) at ~$1.37. We quickly came back to $1.38/9 and then settled in right on the medium-term rising support's $1.37 and varied up as much two cents, but mostly one cent, from there in a long flattish period.
Note, as with yesterday, the big buy imbalances in the b/a below did not have much affect in pushing price higher. My best guess is these were "support" bids intended only to make folks buy at $1.38 and not actually accumulate any at $1.37. ISTM any real desire to accumulate would have seen the $1.37 bids slowly depleted as MMs/traders/shorts decided to move off their bid and take shares at only one penny more. Didn't see much/any of that.
What was seen instead was 12:53's ~106K at mostly $1.37 (including ~77.8K in four blocks) with a VWAP of ~$1.3695. That may have been the "offset" by the MM of the earlier 100.1K trade-minute at 9:35 that had a VWAP of $1.3413. In this scenario the MMs may have taken the 9:35 trade at the lower VWAP, moved price up immediately (as did indeed occur) and slowly fed shares into the market until sufficient quantity on the bid side at a sufficient VWAP was seen to unload the remaining shares. These would have been flagged "short sales" as the shares had not yet been placed into the MMs control by DTCC netting-out processes. With 12:53's ~106K vs. short volume of ~167K, this scenario seems certainly plausible even though not certain.
As with yesterday, buy percentages were again horrid:
09:30: buy 00.00%, sell 15.08%, unk 84.92% on 12.5K
09:45: buy 09.65%, sell 75.25%, unk 15.10% on 147.9K
10:00: buy 11.88%, sell 73.82%, unk 14.30% on 161.8K
10:15: buy 12.14%, sell 73.69%, unk 14.17% on 163.3K
~
11:00: buy 09.40%, sell 79.92%, unk 10.69% on 227.8K
~
12:45: buy 19.60%, sell 69.61%, unk 10.79% on 277.1K
~
13:30: buy 14.60%, sell 75.92%, unk 09.49% on 495.0K
~
15:00: buy 18.24%, sell 72.52%, unk 09.24% on 532.6K
~
15:45: buy 19.85%, sell 71.12%, unk 09.03% on 553.0K
15:59: buy 19.54%, sell 71.44%, unk 09.01% on 594.7K
16:00: buy 26.35%, sell 65.40%, unk 08.25% on 649.7K
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:33 opened the day with a 10,646 unknown for $1.38 and 1.89K more $1.38/$1.3860. Then came 9:31's ~13.4K $1.38/40, 9:32's 1.5K $1.3730, and 9:33's 6K $1.3701->$1.3867 ended the period.
09:34-09:35, after a no-trades minute, did 100.1K $1.40->$1.34.
09:36-09:47 began a rapid low-volume recovery on 9:36's ~1.9K $1.34/5, 9:39's 261 $1.3432 and b/a became 300:3.2K $1.34/7. Then came 9:40's 100 $1.37, 9:41's ~1.7K $1.37, 9:42's ~2K $1.3873/$1.39 and b/a became 600:2.7K $1.38/9. 9:43's 424 $1.39, 9:45's $1.38, and 9:47's ~2.12K $1.39 ended the period.
09:48-10:38 began very low/no-volume $1.37/8 on 9:51's ~2.8K $1.3875->$1.37. At 10:05 b/a was 100:1.4K $1.37/8. Trades kept going mostly at $1.37 x 100 w/o change in the bid and at 10:22 b/a was 100:1.5K $1.37/8, 10:29 255:1.4K $1.37/8. 10:38's 800 $1.37->$1.39 (100) ended the period.
10:39-11:17, during five no-trades minutes, saw 10:41's b/a 38.1K:700 $1.37/8, and then began very low/no-volume $1.3750/$1.38 on 10:44's 600 $1.3750/$1.3798. 10:50 narrowed the spread to $1.38/9. At 10:53 b/a was 1.6K:1.5K $1.38/9, 11:09 60.7K:600 $1.37/8. 11:17's 117 $1.38 ended the period.
11:18-12:52 began with b/a 64.3K:2.4K $1.37/8. Then, after a no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume $1.37/8 on 11:19's 12.4K $1.38->$1.37. 11:37 b/a was 62.9K:2.1K $1.37/8, 12:15 67.7K:3.4K $1.37/8, 12:23 67.7K:1.8K $1.37/8. 12:52's 1K $1.38 ended the period.
12:53-12:53 did 106.6K $1.3750->$1.37->$1.36 (including trades of $1.37 37.3K, 16K, 12K, and 12.5K) and at 13:06 b/a was 45K:24.2K $1.36/7.
12:54-13:22, began low/no-volume $1.36/7 on 12:54's 100 $1.37. At 13:20 b/a was 41.1K:18.9K $1.36/7. 13:22's 12.8K $1.36/$1.3601 ended the period.
13:23-13:23 did ~81.7K $1.36->$1.35->$1.34, including 20K $1.36 and 22.5K $1.34.
13:24-13:53 began a small step back up to the $1.37 support on 13:24's 1.9K $1.3450->$1.35. 13:32 b/a was ~2K:300 $1.35/6. 13:33's 800 $1.35/6 completed the step up and very low/no-volume $1.35/6 ensued, just below the minimal chart's medium-term rising support of $1.37. 13:48's b/a was 3K:2.3K $1.35/6. 13:51's 2.4K $1.36->$1.37 put us back at minimal chart's rising medium-term support, $1.37, again. 13:53's 800 $1.36->$1.37 ended the period.
13:54-15:46 began low/no-volume $1.36/7 on 13:54's 811 $1.36. At 13:57 b/a was 100:1.1K $1.36/7, 14:19 1.4K:1.7K $1.36/7, 14:30 4.8K:1.3K $1.36/7, 14:45 ~9.6K:600 $1.36/8, 14:49's 7.8K:500 $1.36/7, 15:00 7.5K:200 $1.36/7, and 15:22 7.4K:600 $1.36/8. Price/volume was interrupted by 14:46's 1.9K $1.38 (100) -> $1.37 and 15:18's 200 $1.38->$1.37. 15:46's 600 $1.37->$1.39->$1.3656 ended the period.
N.B. In the above period many attempts to put offer at $1.38 were truncated by BATS entering $1.37 x 100 offers.
15:47-16:00, on 14:47's 200 $1.37, began low-volume $1.37/8. B/a at 15:49 was ~1K:900 $1.37/8. Volume was interrupted by 15:56's ~30.4K (including a 25K $1.37) $1.37/$1.3780. The period ended on 15:59's 1,576 $1.36->$1.38 and 16:00's 54,942 $1.40 buy.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 24 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 399,665, 61.52% of day's volume, with a $1.3660 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 22 larger trades totaling 334,077, 51.42% of day's volume, with a $1.3599 VWAP.
Note the VWAP of the 9:35 and 13:23 periods, the two lowest VWAPs of the day, and the percentage of day's volume they represent. This may support the above thoughts about MM involvement.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:33 32475 $1.3701 $1.4000 $44,816.64 $1.3800 5.00% 1.93% Incl 09:30 $1.3800 10,646 09:31 $1.3800 10,889
09:35 100100 $1.3400 $1.4000 $134,267.00 $1.3413 15.41% 32.20% Incl 09:35 $1.3400 92,800
09:47 17417 $1.3400 $1.3900 $24,038.20 $1.3802 2.68% 99.50% Incl 09:42 $1.3873 8,900
10:38 54877 $1.3700 $1.3900 $75,244.92 $1.3712 8.45% 10.74% Incl 10:17 $1.3701 5,700
11:17 24122 $1.3750 $1.3900 $33,286.96 $1.3799 3.71% 10.68% Incl 10:50 $1.3800 8,000 6,000
12:52 48878 $1.3700 $1.3800 $67,374.38 $1.3784 7.52% 18.12% Incl 11:19 $1.3800 11,500 11:34 $1.3800 5,900
11:34 $1.3800 4,034
12:53 106596 $1.3600 $1.3750 $145,979.02 $1.3695 16.41% 17.80% Incl 12:53 $1.3700 6,072 37,251 16,000 12,025
12:53 $1.3700 12,500
13:22 23995 $1.3600 $1.3700 $32,644.68 $1.3605 3.69% 16.00% Incl 13:22 $1.3600 5,700 $1.3601 5,700
13:23 81506 $1.3400 $1.3600 $110,128.14 $1.3512 12.55% 15.00% Incl 13:23 $1.3600 20,000 9,505 4,000
13:23 $1.3500 4,100 13:23 $1.3400 22,501
13:53 24200 $1.3400 $1.3700 $32,827.04 $1.3565 3.72% 16.15%
15:46 37270 $1.3600 $1.3900 $50,961.97 $1.3674 5.74% 19.83%
16:00 94958 $1.3600 $1.4000 $131,728.31 $1.3872 14.62% 26.35% Incl 15:56 $1.3700 25,000 16:00 $1.4000 54,942
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Keep in mind that today's movements, especially the movement in the low and volume, may have been affected by the BREXIT vote results, the effects of which were seen widespread across markets, currencies and fixed-income investments.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.72% -2.90% -0.71% -0.71% 413.29%
Prior -1.41% 0.00% -2.51% -2.14% -36.46%
On my minimal chart, as mentioned above, we bottomed on the well-known $1.34 support, penetrating the rising medium-term support (rising white line), and topped right at the short-term descending resistance (upper falling green line). I view this as a big positive, considering the BREXIT environment in which we were operating. Adding in the larger rising volume, which would normally big a negative on a down day, I think the fact that we honored the support on such volume is a positive. It would have been so easy to just blow through that support on this kind of volume.
So for my minimal chart view, I think remaining "mildly bullish" is justified. Following thoughts might disagree though.
On my one-year chart, as stated yesterday, { If we hold, 10-day [SMA] should rise, ... } we did see a rise even though the close was a penny lower. The 20 and 50-day SMAs continued dropping and should continue falling.
Among the oscillators I watch improvement occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. All are still below neutral. Deterioration occurred in RSI, momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related. All are below neutral (yesterday momentum was above).
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3319 and $1.5081 ($1.3293 and $1.5276 yesterday) continue converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit descends faster than the lower limit rises.
All in, the combination of mixed oscillators and a down day on rising volume would normally suggest increasing near-term weakness. This assessment is cast into doubt by the widespread effects of the BREXIT vote results.
So based conventional TA, I'd have to go neutral in spite of my thoughts on the minimal chart, which boil down to "not bad considering ...". I don't want to make any bets based on that though.
Although my gut, which is likely emotionally driven, wants to say "mildly bullish" I'm going to let my brain dominate here and just go neutral.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, which is an abnormal situation, and the buy percentage ended with an abysmal buy percentage (recall I stop with 15:59's reading because the purpose and meaning of the closing 16:00 trade is not known by me). Both short and buy percentage are too low to suggest sustained appreciation.
Keep in mind the possible scenario laid out above about the MM(s) taking the 100K and then selling those shares at a better price. If that occurred it means the normal shorting was even lower than indicated. To me this means lots of inter/intra-broker trades likely occurred.
The spread widened for the second consecutive day but is still in a range that does not strongly suggest anything abnormal.
VWAP remains split with the last twenty-four readings having twelve negatives and twelve positives. Change since 05/20 is -$0.1085, -7.35%.
All in, I would normally consider the trend being seen in daily short and buy percentage, and VWAP combined with rising volume to be strongly negative. Factoring in the BREXIT potential effects here I hold at neutral.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
