Friday, June 24, 2016 9:28:31 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/23 2016 EOD
The conventional TA today gave a small boost to my "mildly bullish" thoughts with both a higher OLHC and volume and general improvement in most oscillators. My unconventional stuff is counter to that. I apply the thought that most folks watch the conventional stuff and decided I'm slightly more "mildly bullish".
Odd day: essentially open low, $1.39, drop one penny on 100 shares to $1.38 at 9:32, go immediately to $1.39/40 flattish through 11:53, with one $1.38/40 16.5K minute at 11:30, 11:54-12:09 do a very low/no-volume climb to $1.42, go very low/no-volume flattish $1.41/2 through 15:55, and the do a very weak emulation of EOD volatility $1.41/3 through 15:59 until the 16:00 close on a 1,180 sell for $1.41.
The notable thing is the abysmal buy percentages and the extremely low volume during the day:
We'll never know. I've not peeked, but I'm suspecting daily short percentage will be on the low side, maybe such as we saw yesterday - ~26.5%. This could also result from a higher percentage of inter/intra-broker trades, such as was suggested by yesterday's short percentage and low number and percentage of larger trades.
N.B. Friday A.M. I peeked and sure enough the short percentage is very low.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-11:52 opened the day with a 1,300 sell for $1.39 & 518 more for $1.39, then 9:32's 100 $1.38, 9:35's ~2.4K $1.40->$1.3905, 9:36-:39 odd lots 5, 90, and 17 for $1.38, $1.3904 and $1.3801 respectively, 9:40's 100 $1.40, 9:46's 200 $1.40, 9:50's 100 $1.40, 9:51's b/a 1.3K:3.1K $1.38/40, 9:52's trade 150 $1.40, 9:54's 250 $1.40, 10:00's 500 $1.3890/$1.40, and 10:08's b/a was 700:3K $1.39/40. Then came very low/no-volume $1.3936/$1.40. At 10:17 b/a was 500:2.9K $1.39/40 and 10:35 4.5K:2.9K $1.39/40. Trade range expanded to $1.39/40 at 10:43 and b/a was 4.7K:1.8K $1.39/40, 11:09 4.5K:1.2K $1.39/40, 11:16 6.4K:900 $1.39/40.
Low volume and price were interrupted by 11:00's 10.3K $1.39/$1.3950 and 11:29's 200 $1.4099 and 11:30's and 11:29's16.8K $1.40->$1.39->$1.38->$1.40->$1.39. 11:33 b/a was 805:100 $1.39/40. 11:52's 600 $1.39/40 ended the period.
11:53-15:55, after one no-trades minute, began a short low/no-volume step up on 11:54's 200 $1.4050/$1.41, 11:57's 5.2K $1.4001/$1.41, b/a became 1.2K:500 $1.40/1, and 12:09's 100 $1.42 ended the rise. That began very low/no-volume $1.41/2, which narrowed to $1.41/$1.4150 at 13:00, with a few one-minute drops to $1.41. At 13:11 b/a was 2.1K:2.7K $1.41/2, 13:38 2.6K:1.9K $1.41/3 (+31 @ $1.42). Price was interrupted by 13:39's 100 $1.43. At 13:58 b/a was 2.5K:700 $1.41/2, 15:05 1.7K:1.9K $1.41/2, 15:20 ~3K:800 $1.41/2, 15:40 2.6K:6.6K $1.41/2. 15:55's 100 $1.4150 ended the period.
15:56-16:00 did a laughable imitation of the EOD volatility beginning with 15:56's 1.3K $1.4116->$1.4250, then 15:57's 100 $1.43, 15:58's 1.1K $1.4250->$1.42->$1.43, 15:59's 272 $1.4280 and 16:00's 1,180 $1.41 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 3 larger trades (>=5K & NO 4K+) totaling 20,900, 16.51% of day's volume, with a $1.3877 VWAP. As with yesterday, even considering the low volume the number of larger trades and percentage of day's volume are extremely low.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Having said that, the rising volume does suggest increasing strength in an up move and has given me my first glimpse (maybe?) of my recent oft-repeated "mildly bullish" assessment.
On my minimal chart our low moved further above the ascending medium-term support (rising white line) and penetrated the descending resistance (upper falling green line) intra-day before closing exactly on the line. With a small rise in the volume on an up day the odds that we will break that resistance increases. Whether it's due to a price rise or just moving sideways past the descending line is not known but either way ISTM that the "mildly bullish" I've been hawking increases. Adding in higher OLHC (open, low, high, & close) further bolsters the "mildly bullish increase.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continued dropping in spite of the small move up. If we hold, 10-day should rise, 20 and 50-day should continue falling.
The oscillators I watch, which went mixed yesterday, all improved but for accumulation/depreciation and full stochastic which both weakened marginally. Only momentum is above neutral and nothing is oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3293 and $1.5276 ($1.3256 and $1.5498 yesterday) continue converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit descends faster than the lower limit rises.
All in the higher OLHC, volume, and intra-day penetration of the descending resistance finally presented some support for my "mildly bullish" scenario. I'm a bit more confident in that call now and don't see any conventional indications that would change that.
My experimental unconventional stuff might be different though, based on what I noted in the buy and short percentages.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, but both are further away, by large margins, from where they need to be for sustained appreciation. I'll discount the short percentage as likely being a combination of higher than normal inter/intra-day broker trades, which don't normally generate shorts, and MMs possibly being short-term long, as mentioned above. They would hold price up to take additional profits. If that's the case, today they didn't get any new attractive covering prices and they might be out of stock and have no reason to hold price up.
The buy percentage can't be discounted - they sucked most of the day and were lucky to end up as high as they did.
The spread remains reasonable and indicates nothing much but for the small increase which was nothing more than results of the early volatility and possibly the MMs holding price up.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings improved to only eleven negatives and thirteen positives. Change since 05/19is $0.0068, +0.49%. I continue thinking this supports short-term consolidation is most likely for now.
All in, nothing here supports a bullish move, but neither do they support a negative move.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
The conventional TA today gave a small boost to my "mildly bullish" thoughts with both a higher OLHC and volume and general improvement in most oscillators. My unconventional stuff is counter to that. I apply the thought that most folks watch the conventional stuff and decided I'm slightly more "mildly bullish".
Odd day: essentially open low, $1.39, drop one penny on 100 shares to $1.38 at 9:32, go immediately to $1.39/40 flattish through 11:53, with one $1.38/40 16.5K minute at 11:30, 11:54-12:09 do a very low/no-volume climb to $1.42, go very low/no-volume flattish $1.41/2 through 15:55, and the do a very weak emulation of EOD volatility $1.41/3 through 15:59 until the 16:00 close on a 1,180 sell for $1.41.
The notable thing is the abysmal buy percentages and the extremely low volume during the day:
All I can envision is the low volume enabled running the price up early so that someone(s) could sell into the resulting higher prices. Looking at the intra-day behavior the last few days it seems possible that one or more MMs got short-term long and held price up to reap some profits. On very low volume it's easy for them. Who would be buying? Maybe mostly shorters doing covering buys?~
10:30: buy 68.01%, sell 31.99%, unk 00.00% on 6.9K
10:45: buy 60.55%, sell 39.45%, unk 00.00% on 9.5K
11:00: buy 30.99%, sell 65.65%, unk 03.36% on 20.9K
11:15: buy 30.86%, sell 65.60%, unk 03.54% on 22.6K
11:30: buy 21.10%, sell 65.37%, unk 13.53% on 44.4K
11:45: buy 21.45%, sell 65.06%, unk 13.49% on 46.0K
12:00: buy 19.79%, sell 67.66%, unk 12.55% on 53.4K
~
15:15: buy 28.41%, sell 51.87%, unk 19.71% on 96.1K
15:30: buy 32.40%, sell 48.69%, unk 18.91% on 103.4K
15:45: buy 35.26%, sell 46.69%, unk 18.04% on 108.9K
15:59: buy 39.09%, sell 41.62%, unk 19.29% on 125.4K
16:00: buy 38.72%, sell 42.16%, unk 19.12% on 126.6K
We'll never know. I've not peeked, but I'm suspecting daily short percentage will be on the low side, maybe such as we saw yesterday - ~26.5%. This could also result from a higher percentage of inter/intra-broker trades, such as was suggested by yesterday's short percentage and low number and percentage of larger trades.
N.B. Friday A.M. I peeked and sure enough the short percentage is very low.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-11:52 opened the day with a 1,300 sell for $1.39 & 518 more for $1.39, then 9:32's 100 $1.38, 9:35's ~2.4K $1.40->$1.3905, 9:36-:39 odd lots 5, 90, and 17 for $1.38, $1.3904 and $1.3801 respectively, 9:40's 100 $1.40, 9:46's 200 $1.40, 9:50's 100 $1.40, 9:51's b/a 1.3K:3.1K $1.38/40, 9:52's trade 150 $1.40, 9:54's 250 $1.40, 10:00's 500 $1.3890/$1.40, and 10:08's b/a was 700:3K $1.39/40. Then came very low/no-volume $1.3936/$1.40. At 10:17 b/a was 500:2.9K $1.39/40 and 10:35 4.5K:2.9K $1.39/40. Trade range expanded to $1.39/40 at 10:43 and b/a was 4.7K:1.8K $1.39/40, 11:09 4.5K:1.2K $1.39/40, 11:16 6.4K:900 $1.39/40.
Low volume and price were interrupted by 11:00's 10.3K $1.39/$1.3950 and 11:29's 200 $1.4099 and 11:30's and 11:29's16.8K $1.40->$1.39->$1.38->$1.40->$1.39. 11:33 b/a was 805:100 $1.39/40. 11:52's 600 $1.39/40 ended the period.
11:53-15:55, after one no-trades minute, began a short low/no-volume step up on 11:54's 200 $1.4050/$1.41, 11:57's 5.2K $1.4001/$1.41, b/a became 1.2K:500 $1.40/1, and 12:09's 100 $1.42 ended the rise. That began very low/no-volume $1.41/2, which narrowed to $1.41/$1.4150 at 13:00, with a few one-minute drops to $1.41. At 13:11 b/a was 2.1K:2.7K $1.41/2, 13:38 2.6K:1.9K $1.41/3 (+31 @ $1.42). Price was interrupted by 13:39's 100 $1.43. At 13:58 b/a was 2.5K:700 $1.41/2, 15:05 1.7K:1.9K $1.41/2, 15:20 ~3K:800 $1.41/2, 15:40 2.6K:6.6K $1.41/2. 15:55's 100 $1.4150 ended the period.
15:56-16:00 did a laughable imitation of the EOD volatility beginning with 15:56's 1.3K $1.4116->$1.4250, then 15:57's 100 $1.43, 15:58's 1.1K $1.4250->$1.42->$1.43, 15:59's 272 $1.4280 and 16:00's 1,180 $1.41 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 3 larger trades (>=5K & NO 4K+) totaling 20,900, 16.51% of day's volume, with a $1.3877 VWAP. As with yesterday, even considering the low volume the number of larger trades and percentage of day's volume are extremely low.
Can you say "flat"? That's what today was.
Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
11:52 47142 $1.3800 $1.4099 $65,544.50 $1.3904 37.25% 20.62% Incl 11:00 $1.3901 6,000 11:30 $1.3800 9,900
15:55 73496 $1.4001 $1.4300 $104,022.71 $1.4154 58.07% 37.82% Incl 11:57 $1.4001 5,000
16:00 3652 $1.4100 $1.4300 $5,177.88 $1.4178 2.89% 38.72%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Things, IMO, were not as good as some of those movements would suggest. Today was an abnormal intra-day trading day, predominately flat at two close levels, and had no enthusiasm, as indicated by both the larger trades above and the volume, which although rising was still very low.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.71% 1.47% 0.71% 2.92% 11.38%
Prior -1.41% 0.00% -2.51% -2.14% -36.46%
Having said that, the rising volume does suggest increasing strength in an up move and has given me my first glimpse (maybe?) of my recent oft-repeated "mildly bullish" assessment.
On my minimal chart our low moved further above the ascending medium-term support (rising white line) and penetrated the descending resistance (upper falling green line) intra-day before closing exactly on the line. With a small rise in the volume on an up day the odds that we will break that resistance increases. Whether it's due to a price rise or just moving sideways past the descending line is not known but either way ISTM that the "mildly bullish" I've been hawking increases. Adding in higher OLHC (open, low, high, & close) further bolsters the "mildly bullish increase.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continued dropping in spite of the small move up. If we hold, 10-day should rise, 20 and 50-day should continue falling.
The oscillators I watch, which went mixed yesterday, all improved but for accumulation/depreciation and full stochastic which both weakened marginally. Only momentum is above neutral and nothing is oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3293 and $1.5276 ($1.3256 and $1.5498 yesterday) continue converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit descends faster than the lower limit rises.
All in the higher OLHC, volume, and intra-day penetration of the descending resistance finally presented some support for my "mildly bullish" scenario. I'm a bit more confident in that call now and don't see any conventional indications that would change that.
My experimental unconventional stuff might be different though, based on what I noted in the buy and short percentages.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, but both are further away, by large margins, from where they need to be for sustained appreciation. I'll discount the short percentage as likely being a combination of higher than normal inter/intra-day broker trades, which don't normally generate shorts, and MMs possibly being short-term long, as mentioned above. They would hold price up to take additional profits. If that's the case, today they didn't get any new attractive covering prices and they might be out of stock and have no reason to hold price up.
The buy percentage can't be discounted - they sucked most of the day and were lucky to end up as high as they did.
The spread remains reasonable and indicates nothing much but for the small increase which was nothing more than results of the early volatility and possibly the MMs holding price up.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings improved to only eleven negatives and thirteen positives. Change since 05/19is $0.0068, +0.49%. I continue thinking this supports short-term consolidation is most likely for now.
All in, nothing here supports a bullish move, but neither do they support a negative move.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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