Friday, June 24, 2016 4:08:12 AM
Yes, the UK voted to exit the UN but the rules of the exit must be worked out with the EU over the next 2 years before brexit can officially take place.
Prime Minister Cameron resigned effective in 3 months and turns over the exit negotiations to a new Prime Minister after he leaves office.
This gives the EU 2 years to try to change the UK's mind. Whatever rule changes the EU offers UK to keep them in the EU must also be settled in a second referendum sometimes over the next 2 years. The second referendum is the only one that matters!
So... bottomline is NOTHING will happened over the recent vote that can not be reversed in the next 2 years! In other words, this recent vote really means absolutely NOTHING now!
The big objection the EU has is EU citizens from poor countries can migrate all over the EU and take jobs. This is the big thing that rich countries don't like. London is full muslims and even has a new muslim mayor. This pisses off the brits in the worse way.
So if the EU stops migration from poor countries to rich countries then the issue is settled and the UK will reverse its referendum and all will be well. This is easy to fix within the next 2 years!
On top of all the above, major banks around Europe promise to step in and invest in markets to stabilize any panic effect.
Therefore, brexit really makes no difference to Chesapeake whatsoever, especially for the next 2 years. Crude will likely drop maybe 3% today, but I don't think natgas will drop more than a penny or two. Natgas might even move up a little.
But we will get a taste of bullshit panic by stupid investors and likely take a hit. I hope it is for at least 10% so I can load up on some cheap shares come monday morning. If things work the way I see them, Chesapeake will be back up above $4.70 by the middle of next week.
What worries me is that institutions will step in and buy all the bargains today before my deposit becomes liquid on Monday. We might even close higher at the end of today. That would indeed piss me off! I have only enough dry powder to buy maybe another 5,000 shares but if there's drop, I'll get a margin call. I'll call my broker this morning and maybe work out a deal since my deposit will be there Monday.
Anyway, the problem is certainly not fundamental and does not involve natgas demand or prices. The problem is all phycological. As Roosevelt said at the start of World War Two, "The worst we have to fear is fear itself!"
The overall market wants to jump up in the worst way. I think we get that jump next week when people realize that this brexit does not occur for another 2 years!
Of course, every screwball short manipulator will be blasting away that doomsday has arrived!
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