AI
Thursday, June 23, 2016 9:17:31 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/22 2016 EOD
My best estimate remains we are going to continue short-term consolidation near-term. Volume should remain weak and price movements small. My mild upward bias remains in place but that has yet to appear.
A typical scenario, in many ways, with a "high" $1.40 open, a plummet to $1.37 next minute and then bounce back up to $1.40 by 9:43 and a rapid drop to $1.36 by 10:08. After a brief sideways through ~10:51 the range recovered to $1.38/40 by 11:02, went sideways through 13:13, dropped to $1.38/9 and went sideways through ~14:22, stepped back up to $1.39/40 and stayed there through 15:59. The close at $1.37 was 3 cents below the last few 15:59 trades at $1.40.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 2,812 buy for $1.40, 175 more at $1.40 and 28 more in odd lots at $1.40. Then came 9:31's 3.8K $1.37/$1.3710, 9:33's 350 $1.3805/$1.40 and b/a became 100:2.6K $1.38/40. 9:43 b/a was 400:3.6K $1.38/40. 9:34-:42's no trades was followed by 9:43's 350 $1.3865, 9:44's 100 $1.40, 9:48's 397 $1.39, and 9:49's 200 $1.40. B/a became 1.2K:3.5K $1.38/40. Then 9:56-:57's 2K $1.3880 ended the period.
At 10:06 b/a was 1.2K:3.3K $1.38/9.
9:58-10:52, after eleven no-trades minutes, began verylow/no-volume (e.g. 10:09-:29's no trades) $1.36/8 (but low mostly $1.37) on 10:08's ~1.6K $1.38->$1.36 (100) ->$1.38 and b/a became 100:4.1K $1.37/8. At 10:42 b/a was 3K:3.5K $1.36/8, 10:48 2.1K:3K $1.37/8. 10:52's 700 $1.37/8 ended the period.
10:53-11:02, after one no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume climb at $1.38/9 through 11:02 and then $1.39/40 (mostly $1.40) on 10:54's 7.7K $1.38->$1.3799->$1.39. At 11:00 b/a was 2.5K:1.6K $1.37/8. 11:02's ~1.8K $1.38->$1.40 ended the period.
11:03-13:17, after a no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume $1.39/40 with b/a at 11:03 3.3K:5.6K $1.38/40 and 11:04's 300 $1.39 trade. Range narrowed to $1.3950/$1.40 ~11:28. B/a at 11:15 was 36.2K:5.3K $1.38/40, 11:34 2K:9.3K $1.39/40, 11:44 3K:13.4K $1.39/40, 12:33 3.1K:7.3K $1.39/40, 12:47 3.7K:8.5K $1.39/40. Spread returned to $1.39/40 at ~12:06. 12:23 b/a was 2.4K:7.4K $1.39/40. The low volume was interrupted by 11:28-:29's ~10.6K $1.39/40, 11:48's ~10.9K $1.3950/$1.40, and 13:14's 4.3K $1.39/40. 13:17's 1.5K $1.39 ended the period.
13:18-14:26, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 13:19's 100 $1.38. 13:37 b/a was 36.7K:4.2K $1.38/9. 14:26's 100 $1.39 ended the period.
14:27-15:48, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 on 14:33's ~2.2K $1.39->$1.1950->$1.39, 14:35's ~4.3K $1.39 and 14:38's 100 $1.40. At 14:39 b/a was 2.9K:5.8K $1.39/40, 15:30 3.1K:6K $1.39/40. At 14:58 range narrowed to $1.3950/$1.40 and at 15:48 b/a was 3.6K:5.5K $1.39/40. 15:48's 100 $1.40 ended the period.
15:49-16:00 began the EOD volatility by doing a quick step down on 15:49-:52's $1.3930->$1.40->$1.39->$1.3840 4.1K. B/a became ~33.6K:1.2K $1.38/9. That yielded a very low/no-volume period (e.g. 15:53-:57's no-trades) with 15:58's ~2.1K $1.38, and 15:59's ~3.6K $1.38->$1.39->$1.3950->$1.40 with 16:00's 400 $1.37, 3 cents down from the last few 15:59 trades, ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trades (>=5K & NO 4K+) totaling 5,500, 4.84% of day's volume, with a $1.4000 VWAP. This is a very low number of larger trades even for the small day's volume.
On my minimal chart it's heartening that now two days have honored the minimal chart's rising medium-term support (rising white line), ~$1.36, on rising volume yesterday and reducing volume today. Less positive is that we didn't bump the descending short-term resistance (descending upper green line) again. However, considering my assessment that we are doing a short-term consolidation, a narrowing spread, especially on reducing volume, is to be expected. So this is not necessarily a negative.
As mentioned a couple days back, that rising support is bolstered by a strong known price-point support just below at $1.34 and any down move would be likely difficult to accomplish.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continued dropping as expected. All will continue so unless we get a move up in range. The 10-day could have one flat day if we don't go anywhere.
The oscillators I watch, all weakened yesterday, went mixed today with all weakened but MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum. All are below neutral and Williams %R is oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3256 and $1.5498 ($1.3380 and $1.5481 yesterday) continue converging as the upper limit falls more rapidly than the lower limit. Mid-point is moving lower of course.
All in, nothing here suggesting an exit from consolidation yet but the Williams %R and the reducing volume. Reducing volume during consolidation is not enough but it is a desirable component.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a sign of normalcy, and short percentage is well below the desired range of 35%-45% (needs re-check). That's not good. The buy percentage is back to a normal, for us, range well below what I believe is need for sustained appreciation.
The spread again narrowed nicely, as would be expected in continued consolidation. It's not signaling any big move but may be signaling some kind of change is near.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings is back to an even split with twelve negatives and twelve positives. Change since 05/18 is -$0.0342, -2.40%. I continue thinking this supports short-term consolidation is most likely for now.
All in, only the short percentage suggests a change. The most recent occurrences of similar low readings had VWAPs weakened in the next couple days but looking back to 5/20 and 5/23 we had VWAP improvement. These latter occurrences had wider spreads but so did most of the others. I can't see any pattern in buy percentage either. So I think the low short percentage today was just an artifact of low volume - more inter/intra-broker trades, as a percentage of trades, would lead to reduced short percentage.
My prognosis remains short-term consolidation based on this stuff.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
My best estimate remains we are going to continue short-term consolidation near-term. Volume should remain weak and price movements small. My mild upward bias remains in place but that has yet to appear.
A typical scenario, in many ways, with a "high" $1.40 open, a plummet to $1.37 next minute and then bounce back up to $1.40 by 9:43 and a rapid drop to $1.36 by 10:08. After a brief sideways through ~10:51 the range recovered to $1.38/40 by 11:02, went sideways through 13:13, dropped to $1.38/9 and went sideways through ~14:22, stepped back up to $1.39/40 and stayed there through 15:59. The close at $1.37 was 3 cents below the last few 15:59 trades at $1.40.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 2,812 buy for $1.40, 175 more at $1.40 and 28 more in odd lots at $1.40. Then came 9:31's 3.8K $1.37/$1.3710, 9:33's 350 $1.3805/$1.40 and b/a became 100:2.6K $1.38/40. 9:43 b/a was 400:3.6K $1.38/40. 9:34-:42's no trades was followed by 9:43's 350 $1.3865, 9:44's 100 $1.40, 9:48's 397 $1.39, and 9:49's 200 $1.40. B/a became 1.2K:3.5K $1.38/40. Then 9:56-:57's 2K $1.3880 ended the period.
At 10:06 b/a was 1.2K:3.3K $1.38/9.
9:58-10:52, after eleven no-trades minutes, began verylow/no-volume (e.g. 10:09-:29's no trades) $1.36/8 (but low mostly $1.37) on 10:08's ~1.6K $1.38->$1.36 (100) ->$1.38 and b/a became 100:4.1K $1.37/8. At 10:42 b/a was 3K:3.5K $1.36/8, 10:48 2.1K:3K $1.37/8. 10:52's 700 $1.37/8 ended the period.
10:53-11:02, after one no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume climb at $1.38/9 through 11:02 and then $1.39/40 (mostly $1.40) on 10:54's 7.7K $1.38->$1.3799->$1.39. At 11:00 b/a was 2.5K:1.6K $1.37/8. 11:02's ~1.8K $1.38->$1.40 ended the period.
11:03-13:17, after a no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume $1.39/40 with b/a at 11:03 3.3K:5.6K $1.38/40 and 11:04's 300 $1.39 trade. Range narrowed to $1.3950/$1.40 ~11:28. B/a at 11:15 was 36.2K:5.3K $1.38/40, 11:34 2K:9.3K $1.39/40, 11:44 3K:13.4K $1.39/40, 12:33 3.1K:7.3K $1.39/40, 12:47 3.7K:8.5K $1.39/40. Spread returned to $1.39/40 at ~12:06. 12:23 b/a was 2.4K:7.4K $1.39/40. The low volume was interrupted by 11:28-:29's ~10.6K $1.39/40, 11:48's ~10.9K $1.3950/$1.40, and 13:14's 4.3K $1.39/40. 13:17's 1.5K $1.39 ended the period.
13:18-14:26, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 on 13:19's 100 $1.38. 13:37 b/a was 36.7K:4.2K $1.38/9. 14:26's 100 $1.39 ended the period.
14:27-15:48, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 on 14:33's ~2.2K $1.39->$1.1950->$1.39, 14:35's ~4.3K $1.39 and 14:38's 100 $1.40. At 14:39 b/a was 2.9K:5.8K $1.39/40, 15:30 3.1K:6K $1.39/40. At 14:58 range narrowed to $1.3950/$1.40 and at 15:48 b/a was 3.6K:5.5K $1.39/40. 15:48's 100 $1.40 ended the period.
15:49-16:00 began the EOD volatility by doing a quick step down on 15:49-:52's $1.3930->$1.40->$1.39->$1.3840 4.1K. B/a became ~33.6K:1.2K $1.38/9. That yielded a very low/no-volume period (e.g. 15:53-:57's no-trades) with 15:58's ~2.1K $1.38, and 15:59's ~3.6K $1.38->$1.39->$1.3950->$1.40 with 16:00's 400 $1.37, 3 cents down from the last few 15:59 trades, ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trades (>=5K & NO 4K+) totaling 5,500, 4.84% of day's volume, with a $1.4000 VWAP. This is a very low number of larger trades even for the small day's volume.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:57 10184 $1.3700 $1.4000 $14,111.28 $1.3856 8.96% 34.41%
10:52 13449 $1.3600 $1.3800 $18,402.62 $1.3683 11.84% 21.09%
11:02 9450 $1.3799 $1.4000 $13,065.55 $1.3826 8.32% 26.99%
13:17 47677 $1.3900 $1.4000 $66,565.13 $1.3962 41.96% 45.26% Incl 11:48 $1.4000 5,500
14:26 7351 $1.3800 $1.3900 $10,201.11 $1.3877 6.47% 48.70%
15:48 11360 $1.3900 $1.4000 $15,818.37 $1.3925 10.00% 45.17%
16:00 13063 $1.3700 $1.4000 $18,141.17 $1.3887 11.50% 42.62%
Another yucky day except that the low was not below yesterday's. See minimal chart comments next.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.41% 0.00% -2.51% -2.14% -36.46%
Prior -0.70% -3.55% -0.97% -2.78% 72.67%
On my minimal chart it's heartening that now two days have honored the minimal chart's rising medium-term support (rising white line), ~$1.36, on rising volume yesterday and reducing volume today. Less positive is that we didn't bump the descending short-term resistance (descending upper green line) again. However, considering my assessment that we are doing a short-term consolidation, a narrowing spread, especially on reducing volume, is to be expected. So this is not necessarily a negative.
As mentioned a couple days back, that rising support is bolstered by a strong known price-point support just below at $1.34 and any down move would be likely difficult to accomplish.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continued dropping as expected. All will continue so unless we get a move up in range. The 10-day could have one flat day if we don't go anywhere.
The oscillators I watch, all weakened yesterday, went mixed today with all weakened but MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum. All are below neutral and Williams %R is oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3256 and $1.5498 ($1.3380 and $1.5481 yesterday) continue converging as the upper limit falls more rapidly than the lower limit. Mid-point is moving lower of course.
All in, nothing here suggesting an exit from consolidation yet but the Williams %R and the reducing volume. Reducing volume during consolidation is not enough but it is a desirable component.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a sign of normalcy, and short percentage is well below the desired range of 35%-45% (needs re-check). That's not good. The buy percentage is back to a normal, for us, range well below what I believe is need for sustained appreciation.
The spread again narrowed nicely, as would be expected in continued consolidation. It's not signaling any big move but may be signaling some kind of change is near.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings is back to an even split with twelve negatives and twelve positives. Change since 05/18 is -$0.0342, -2.40%. I continue thinking this supports short-term consolidation is most likely for now.
All in, only the short percentage suggests a change. The most recent occurrences of similar low readings had VWAPs weakened in the next couple days but looking back to 5/20 and 5/23 we had VWAP improvement. These latter occurrences had wider spreads but so did most of the others. I can't see any pattern in buy percentage either. So I think the low short percentage today was just an artifact of low volume - more inter/intra-broker trades, as a percentage of trades, would lead to reduced short percentage.
My prognosis remains short-term consolidation based on this stuff.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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