Sunday, June 19, 2016 2:04:55 PM
Yes indeed, IF Ackman's bets pay off he will be rewarded handsomely. But the market, as it speaks its message today, suggests that the odds are against those outcomes.
Of course the market is not always right, not by a long shot. But that's not the issue. Rather, is the market, as a reflection of the aggregate wisdom of interested parties, generally more correct than any individual? The difficultly individuals have in beating the market over the long-term suggests that it is.
Of course there are exceptions. Even a monkey can seem to outwit the market over the short-term. Good luck trumps everything in a game whose outcomes are so dominated by randomness. But over a long enough period of time and a large enough number of decisions the monkey's wits or lack of same will be revealed. And yes there are individual exceptions. Warren Buffet has proven to be one, although, I use word "proven" in a provisional sense. That cases is far from having been made by Ackman.
For Ackman to break even on VRX the stock will have to go up several hundred percent. I've heard estimates of over 400%. He will be lucky to break even. His average shorting price on HLF is about 45 a share vs the current 59.
If this is genius, I will go with the Vanguard Index Fund. Or better yet I will use a simple momentum method and do a bit better. Imagine that, beating Ackman and it only takes 10 minutes a month.
Trendliner.
Recent BHC News
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 09:24:55 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 09:19:13 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 09:16:00 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 03:36:17 PM
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/22/2024 10:04:26 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/22/2024 12:04:41 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/13/2024 09:30:26 PM
- Form SC 13D/A - General statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 02:00:18 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/01/2024 10:18:42 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/02/2024 09:19:47 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/02/2024 09:18:36 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/02/2024 09:16:46 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/02/2024 09:15:28 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/05/2023 09:35:35 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/05/2023 04:12:39 PM
- Form 8-K/A - Current report: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/13/2023 09:50:05 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/06/2023 10:06:25 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/06/2023 04:09:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/02/2023 08:58:48 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/02/2023 11:05:39 AM
- Bausch Health Gets FDA Approval for Acne Treatment Cabtreo • Dow Jones News • 10/20/2023 10:05:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/02/2023 08:29:14 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/02/2023 08:28:14 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/02/2023 08:27:19 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/02/2023 08:25:30 PM
NanoViricides Reports that the Phase I NV-387 Clinical Trial is Completed Successfully and Data Lock is Expected Soon • NNVC • May 2, 2024 10:07 AM
ILUS Files Form 10-K and Provides Shareholder Update • ILUS • May 2, 2024 8:52 AM
Avant Technologies Names New CEO Following Acquisition of Healthcare Technology and Data Integration Firm • AVAI • May 2, 2024 8:00 AM
Bantec Engaged in a Letter of Intent to Acquire a Small New Jersey Based Manufacturing Company • BANT • May 1, 2024 10:00 AM
Cannabix Technologies to Deliver Breath Logix Alcohol Screening Device to Australia • BLO • Apr 30, 2024 8:53 AM
Hydromer, Inc. Reports Preliminary Unaudited Financial Results for First Quarter 2024 • HYDI • Apr 29, 2024 9:10 AM