AI
Saturday, June 18, 2016 11:50:09 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/17 2016 EOD
Yesterday's top-of-post summary included { ... this all looks quite negative as the MMs will have no reason to hold price up ...} and then { If my guess is correct we should get a down day as the MMs will have no reason to support price. In fact, they would want lower prices so they could do covering buys if a large part of their (naked?) shorts were not backed by real sell orders from their customers. }
Looks like that concern was a miss. We finished with a higher VWAP than yesterday, so in my aggregate view it was an up day, not a down or flat day.
That ignores conventional TA indications of course.
In total, I'm thinking we are in a short-term consolidation which could end at any time as we get squeezed by the potential support and resistance lines, which are converging. If we continue to trade within them we'll shortly get into a potential squeeze, from which we could break up, down, or just continue sideways.
So I'm going neutral here thinking consolidation is the most likely short-term continued behavior.
Today we got the normal behavior but somewhat muted: open high, drop some, recover some, go flattish, make a new high, drop some, go flattish, drop some more, and go flattish into the close. When things are looking bad it's common to make successive lower lows after making an excessive high earlier in the day. To some degree this reminds me of more normal behavior for symbols in general rather than the normal for CPST.
Some more oddities today included 12:16-:24's ~84.1K $1.41->$1.38->$1.40. 12:15 volume was 51,061 so ~165% of prior volume & right then we sat at $1.39/41 - essentially no change. 12:38-:39 did another out-of-the blue 64K $1.40->$1.43. Check the intra-day breakdown below and note the percent of day's volume, the effects on buy percentage, and the VWAP for those periods. Hint: those two periods were 62%+ of the day's volume.
The combination of these oddities, $206,902.15, 147,601 shares with a VWAP of $1.4018 was above yesterday's VWAP of $1.3854 and below the VWAP of all the other periods today.
The first period's price and buy percentage drop makes me think someone put in a market sell order. What comes immediately to mind is MMs because they have zero-cost shares available (they are allowed to naked short without restriction). The second period seems similar except that it looks like a buy market order and is a bit smaller than the other period's volume. Who's that bullish? Maybe no one. Could be shorters or MMs taking advantage to do covering buys?
The trouble with these possibilities is I don't see strong support for MMs naked shorting in the short percentage and shorters doing covering buys usually do so slow and carefully I think.
So the "who" and "why" is nothing but TFH stuff.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:15 opened the day with a 2,876 buy for $1.41, did 9:31's and 9:33's 100 ea. $1.38. B/a went 200:3.5K $1.37/40, 9:40 200:3.2K $1.37/40. Then came 9:34's 13 $1.37/$1.3999, 9:37's 7 $1.40, and 9:41's 430 $1.3923 began a long very low/no-volume (mostly no volume) $1.39/40. 10:02 b/a was 1K:13.6K $1.40/1. Pattern was interrupted by 10:12's ~1.3K $1.40/$1.4035. 10:15's 2K $1.4099 ended the period.
10:16-11:54, after 16 no-trades minutes, did steps down on 10:32's ~20.7K $1.40/1, 10:33-:35's ~11.1K, 10:36's 800 $1.40, 10:38's 1.8K $1.40 and 10:41 had b/a at 1.4K:13.7K $1.40/1. 10:42's ~1.9K $1.40->$1.4001->$1.39 put b/a to 2.3K:2.1K $.39/40. Then began very low/no-volume $1.39/40. 10:44 had b/a 7.7K:2K $1.39/40, 11:01 b/a 7.5K:2.2K $1.39/40, and 11:28 b/a 6.7K:2.5K $1.39/40, and 11:48 7.4K:500 $1.39/40. 11:54's 250 $1.40 ended the period.
11:55-12:24 began with 12 no-trades minutes and 11:56's b/a 1.3K:100 $1.40/2 and then 12:06's b/a 1.6K:900 $1.40/2 (& 10 bid $1.41). Then range stepped up on 12:08-:09's 700 $1.42->$1.43, did 12:10's 400 $1.43 and then tanked after five no-trades minutes by doing 12:16-12:24's ~84.1K $1.41->$1.40->$1.39->$1.38->$1.39->$1.38->$1.39->$1.40.
12:25-12:43, after a no-trades minute, began mostly low/no-volume $1.41/3 on 12:26's 100 $1.41, but 12:38-:39's ~64K $1.40->$1.43 interrupted. At 12:38 b/a was 1.6K:23.2K $1.41/2. After 12:39, very low/no-volume $1.42/3 began and 12:43's 125 $1.42 ended the period.
12:44-14:23, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.42/3 on 12:49's 200 $1.43 and fell to $1.41/2 at 12:58. 13:08 b/a was 1.3K:400 $1.41/2, 13:30 b/a 2.2K:600 $1.40/1, 14:14 b/a 1.4K:1.1K $1.40/1. 14:23's 15.7K $1.41/$1.4150 ended the period.
14:24-15:07, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.40/1 on 14:24's ~2.4K $1.40/1. 15:07's 100 $1.41 ended the period.
15:08-15:47, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.40/1.4050 on 15:15's 100 $1.4050 and ended the period on 15:47's 100 $1.4050. At 15:34 b/a was 4.7K:7.3K $1.40/1.
15:48-16:00, after nine no-trades minutes, began $1.40/1 with typical variable, but today low, EOD volume. 15:59's 3.5K $1.40->$1.41 followed by 16:00's 401 $1.40 end the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 118,127, 48.36% of day's volume, with a $1.4057 VWAP. The count of larger trades isn't all that excessive but the percentage of day's volume is. Notice the few abnormally large trades in the two "oddities" periods.
On my minimal chart we got a higher open, low and high but the close was flat. All this was on higher volume but since the close was flat and it was a down day, courtesy of a close lower than the open, I can't read this as all that positive. Beyond that, we acted very much like we are doing a short-term consolidation as our trading pattern is more sideways than anything else since exiting my "three-day catalyst window". We have directionless price movement, inconsistent volume and we're not pushing either support or resistance these last three days.
We have now transitioned from being concerned about the rising short-term resistance (lower rising green line) to being concerned with the short-term falling potential resistance (upper descending green line).
Nothing to add other than nothing on this charts suggests anything but short-term consolidation for the moment.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20 SMAs continue dropping and the 50-day had a tiny bump up. If we hold this range the 20-day will continue dropping for the foreseeable future as higher values fall off the tail of the window. The 10-day would drop for nine days. The 50-day would rise marginally for two days and then begin to roll over.
The oscillators I watch had RSI flat, momentum, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R rise, and accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related fall. All moves but for MFI were small moves. MFI was a "medium" move. All oscillators are below neutral and none are oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3366 and $1.5788 ($1.3425 and $1.5975 yesterday) continue dropping with the two limits more-or-less parallel. Our trading is below the mid-point, which looks destined to drop to intersect or range down the road.
All in, the big increase in volume over yesterday (see above) on a down day, based on a close lower than the open even though the close was flat and there was a higher low and high, suggests near-term weakness remains. With nothing in oversold the only suggestion we might move up is that we are below the mid-point of my experimental 13-period Bollinger band. That hasn't been a strong indicator in the past.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting "normalcy", and the short percentage is just above my desired range. The buy percentage is just below what I believe is needed for longer-term appreciation to occur. This is also a bit above what's normally seen at EOD in this symbol so that's a positive suggestion, albeit not strongly so. These two percentages moving directionally together and being around normal ranges suggests the last dregs of the catalyst "three-day window" are done and we can start looking for some kind of trend even if it's only sideways.
The spread was again quite reasonable and contributes to the suggestion of short-term consolidation, especially consider how it was produced (see above)
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings changed with now twelve negatives and twelve positives. Haven't seen an even split for a while - usually negative move outweigh the positives by a couple occurrences. Change since 05/13 is $0.0148, 1.07%. Adding this in I think support for short-term consolidation is pretty solid for now.
All in, the return of "normalcy" in the short and buy percentages along with the spread and VWAP behavior doesn't offer any near-term bearish concerns and lets me go to neutral with some small perturbations expected.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Yesterday's top-of-post summary included { ... this all looks quite negative as the MMs will have no reason to hold price up ...} and then { If my guess is correct we should get a down day as the MMs will have no reason to support price. In fact, they would want lower prices so they could do covering buys if a large part of their (naked?) shorts were not backed by real sell orders from their customers. }
Looks like that concern was a miss. We finished with a higher VWAP than yesterday, so in my aggregate view it was an up day, not a down or flat day.
That ignores conventional TA indications of course.
In total, I'm thinking we are in a short-term consolidation which could end at any time as we get squeezed by the potential support and resistance lines, which are converging. If we continue to trade within them we'll shortly get into a potential squeeze, from which we could break up, down, or just continue sideways.
So I'm going neutral here thinking consolidation is the most likely short-term continued behavior.
Today we got the normal behavior but somewhat muted: open high, drop some, recover some, go flattish, make a new high, drop some, go flattish, drop some more, and go flattish into the close. When things are looking bad it's common to make successive lower lows after making an excessive high earlier in the day. To some degree this reminds me of more normal behavior for symbols in general rather than the normal for CPST.
Some more oddities today included 12:16-:24's ~84.1K $1.41->$1.38->$1.40. 12:15 volume was 51,061 so ~165% of prior volume & right then we sat at $1.39/41 - essentially no change. 12:38-:39 did another out-of-the blue 64K $1.40->$1.43. Check the intra-day breakdown below and note the percent of day's volume, the effects on buy percentage, and the VWAP for those periods. Hint: those two periods were 62%+ of the day's volume.
The combination of these oddities, $206,902.15, 147,601 shares with a VWAP of $1.4018 was above yesterday's VWAP of $1.3854 and below the VWAP of all the other periods today.
The first period's price and buy percentage drop makes me think someone put in a market sell order. What comes immediately to mind is MMs because they have zero-cost shares available (they are allowed to naked short without restriction). The second period seems similar except that it looks like a buy market order and is a bit smaller than the other period's volume. Who's that bullish? Maybe no one. Could be shorters or MMs taking advantage to do covering buys?
The trouble with these possibilities is I don't see strong support for MMs naked shorting in the short percentage and shorters doing covering buys usually do so slow and carefully I think.
So the "who" and "why" is nothing but TFH stuff.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:15 opened the day with a 2,876 buy for $1.41, did 9:31's and 9:33's 100 ea. $1.38. B/a went 200:3.5K $1.37/40, 9:40 200:3.2K $1.37/40. Then came 9:34's 13 $1.37/$1.3999, 9:37's 7 $1.40, and 9:41's 430 $1.3923 began a long very low/no-volume (mostly no volume) $1.39/40. 10:02 b/a was 1K:13.6K $1.40/1. Pattern was interrupted by 10:12's ~1.3K $1.40/$1.4035. 10:15's 2K $1.4099 ended the period.
10:16-11:54, after 16 no-trades minutes, did steps down on 10:32's ~20.7K $1.40/1, 10:33-:35's ~11.1K, 10:36's 800 $1.40, 10:38's 1.8K $1.40 and 10:41 had b/a at 1.4K:13.7K $1.40/1. 10:42's ~1.9K $1.40->$1.4001->$1.39 put b/a to 2.3K:2.1K $.39/40. Then began very low/no-volume $1.39/40. 10:44 had b/a 7.7K:2K $1.39/40, 11:01 b/a 7.5K:2.2K $1.39/40, and 11:28 b/a 6.7K:2.5K $1.39/40, and 11:48 7.4K:500 $1.39/40. 11:54's 250 $1.40 ended the period.
11:55-12:24 began with 12 no-trades minutes and 11:56's b/a 1.3K:100 $1.40/2 and then 12:06's b/a 1.6K:900 $1.40/2 (& 10 bid $1.41). Then range stepped up on 12:08-:09's 700 $1.42->$1.43, did 12:10's 400 $1.43 and then tanked after five no-trades minutes by doing 12:16-12:24's ~84.1K $1.41->$1.40->$1.39->$1.38->$1.39->$1.38->$1.39->$1.40.
12:25-12:43, after a no-trades minute, began mostly low/no-volume $1.41/3 on 12:26's 100 $1.41, but 12:38-:39's ~64K $1.40->$1.43 interrupted. At 12:38 b/a was 1.6K:23.2K $1.41/2. After 12:39, very low/no-volume $1.42/3 began and 12:43's 125 $1.42 ended the period.
12:44-14:23, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.42/3 on 12:49's 200 $1.43 and fell to $1.41/2 at 12:58. 13:08 b/a was 1.3K:400 $1.41/2, 13:30 b/a 2.2K:600 $1.40/1, 14:14 b/a 1.4K:1.1K $1.40/1. 14:23's 15.7K $1.41/$1.4150 ended the period.
14:24-15:07, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.40/1 on 14:24's ~2.4K $1.40/1. 15:07's 100 $1.41 ended the period.
15:08-15:47, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.40/1.4050 on 15:15's 100 $1.4050 and ended the period on 15:47's 100 $1.4050. At 15:34 b/a was 4.7K:7.3K $1.40/1.
15:48-16:00, after nine no-trades minutes, began $1.40/1 with typical variable, but today low, EOD volume. 15:59's 3.5K $1.40->$1.41 followed by 16:00's 401 $1.40 end the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 118,127, 48.36% of day's volume, with a $1.4057 VWAP. The count of larger trades isn't all that excessive but the percentage of day's volume is. Notice the few abnormally large trades in the two "oddities" periods.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:15 7844 $1.3800 $1.4100 $11,020.80 $1.4050 3.21% 74.39%
11:54 41656 $1.3900 $1.4100 $58,499.32 $1.4043 17.05% 69.36% Incl 10:32 $1.4100 17,800 10:34 $1.4000 4,800
12:24 84931 $1.3800 $1.4300 $117,966.75 $1.3890 34.77% 37.00% Incl 12:19 $1.3900 5,085 $1.3810 5,000
12:21 $1.3800 21,200 12:24 $1.4070 7,120
12:43 67070 $1.4000 $1.4300 $95,175.55 $1.4190 27.46% 54.21% Incl 12:38 $1.4200 14,000 12:39 $1.4200 5,100
12:39 $1.4200 25,000
14:23 31347 $1.4000 $1.4300 $44,309.80 $1.4135 12.83% 50.96% Incl 14:23 $1.4100 13,022
15:07 4366 $1.4000 $1.4100 $6,125.97 $1.4031 1.79% 48.96%
15:47 1400 $1.4000 $1.4050 $1,964.50 $1.4032 0.57% 48.76%
16:00 4401 $1.4000 $1.4100 $6,191.28 $1.4068 1.80% 49.13%
Well, today's movement sure looks better than yesterday's!__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.17% 0.73% 0.70% 0.00% 71.02%
Prior -4.17% -1.44% -3.40% -0.71% -8.88%
On my minimal chart we got a higher open, low and high but the close was flat. All this was on higher volume but since the close was flat and it was a down day, courtesy of a close lower than the open, I can't read this as all that positive. Beyond that, we acted very much like we are doing a short-term consolidation as our trading pattern is more sideways than anything else since exiting my "three-day catalyst window". We have directionless price movement, inconsistent volume and we're not pushing either support or resistance these last three days.
We have now transitioned from being concerned about the rising short-term resistance (lower rising green line) to being concerned with the short-term falling potential resistance (upper descending green line).
Nothing to add other than nothing on this charts suggests anything but short-term consolidation for the moment.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20 SMAs continue dropping and the 50-day had a tiny bump up. If we hold this range the 20-day will continue dropping for the foreseeable future as higher values fall off the tail of the window. The 10-day would drop for nine days. The 50-day would rise marginally for two days and then begin to roll over.
The oscillators I watch had RSI flat, momentum, MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R rise, and accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related fall. All moves but for MFI were small moves. MFI was a "medium" move. All oscillators are below neutral and none are oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3366 and $1.5788 ($1.3425 and $1.5975 yesterday) continue dropping with the two limits more-or-less parallel. Our trading is below the mid-point, which looks destined to drop to intersect or range down the road.
All in, the big increase in volume over yesterday (see above) on a down day, based on a close lower than the open even though the close was flat and there was a higher low and high, suggests near-term weakness remains. With nothing in oversold the only suggestion we might move up is that we are below the mid-point of my experimental 13-period Bollinger band. That hasn't been a strong indicator in the past.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting "normalcy", and the short percentage is just above my desired range. The buy percentage is just below what I believe is needed for longer-term appreciation to occur. This is also a bit above what's normally seen at EOD in this symbol so that's a positive suggestion, albeit not strongly so. These two percentages moving directionally together and being around normal ranges suggests the last dregs of the catalyst "three-day window" are done and we can start looking for some kind of trend even if it's only sideways.
The spread was again quite reasonable and contributes to the suggestion of short-term consolidation, especially consider how it was produced (see above)
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings changed with now twelve negatives and twelve positives. Haven't seen an even split for a while - usually negative move outweigh the positives by a couple occurrences. Change since 05/13 is $0.0148, 1.07%. Adding this in I think support for short-term consolidation is pretty solid for now.
All in, the return of "normalcy" in the short and buy percentages along with the spread and VWAP behavior doesn't offer any near-term bearish concerns and lets me go to neutral with some small perturbations expected.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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