Friday, June 17, 2016 8:56:45 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/16 2016 EOD
As with yesterday, there were some oddities that make me suspicious. The difference is today they were to the upside and consisted of small trades going off above the offer price. Now, in full disclosure, this probably shouldn't be suspicious because an intra/inter-broker match-up could occur at a price above NBBO (National Best Bid/Offer). Brokers, trying to keep fees to a minimum and also service their customers could do such a match in-house.
Nevertheless, this is so unusual and infrequently seen that it must cause suspicion in any sentient and semi-inquisitive intelligent being, of which I consider myself one ... maybe erroneously!
.
Today was ugly in my unconventional stuff, considering that intra-day buy percentage 10:45-14:00 never dropped below 60%. That suggests what appeared to be strength was in reality nothing more than shorters, who are very good at buying without pushing price upwards, doing careful covering buys I think. Adding in the short percentage at 61.61% (see below) being excessive (heavy MM naked shorting evidenced by lack of price rise in the face of strong buy percentages?) and this all looks quite negative as the MMs will have no reason to hold price up.
If my guess is correct we should get a down day as the MMs will have no reason to support price. In fact, they would want lower prices so they could do covering buys if a large part of their (naked?) shorts were not backed by real sell orders from their customers.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:24 opened the day with a 1,050 sell for $1.38 and b/a went ~9.2K:2.7K $1.38/41. Next was 9:35-:36's ~1.2K $1.38 and b/a went 8.5K:3.6K $1.38/41, 9:44's ~2.9K $1.38->$1.3941, 9:45's 250 $1.3905, 9:46's 200 $1.40/1 and b/a went 700:4.2K $1.39/41. Below the $1.39 bid was a presented ~9K $1.38. Keep in mind some may have been masked by the higher $1.39 bids. Then came 9:49's 100 $1.41, 10:01's 200 $1.41 and b/a went 700:3.4K $1.39/41. Then came 10:11's 114 $1.40, 10:12's 100 $1.4099, 10:13-:20's no trades, 10:21's 100 $1.40, and 10:24's 100 $1.41 ended the period.
10:25-10:43 had 10:28's b/a at 9.1K:~3K $1.38/$1.40. After twelve no-trades minutes, began a rapid descent to $1.3750 (intra-day low) on 10:36-38's ~2.3K $1.40->$1.39->$1.38. Then 10:43's ~24.3K $1.3750/$1.38 ended the period.
10:44-13:02 began a very low/no-volume slow rise through 11:10 on 10:44's ~18.9K $1.3799/$1.38 left b/a at 20K:1.9K $1.37/9. 10:55's b/a was 24.7K:1.9K $1.37/9. 10:56 did 100 $1.40. B/a went 2.3K:300 $1.38/40, then at 10:58 1.8K:~3.4K $1.38/40, at 11:08 2.4K:3.2K $1.38/40. 11:10 did 100 $1.41 but b/a was 3.2K:2.3K $1.38/40. Then the rise ceased and began very low/no-volume $1.39/$1.41 (with rising lows initially) on 11:23's 1K $1.3874. 13:01-:02's 401 $1.39 put b/a to 9.4K:1.7K $1.38/9 and ended the period.
13:03-13:48, after nine no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 (mostly $1.38) on 13:12's 2.9K $1.38, leaving b/a at 5.3K:3.2K $1.38/9. AT 13:23 b/a was 2.7K:4.3K $1.38/9. 13:35's 3.4K $1.38/$1.3899 left b/a at 1.4K:3.4K $1.38/9. At 13:45 b/a was 800:3.4K $1.38/9. 13:48's ~3,8K $1.3850->$1.38->$1.37 ended the period.
13:49-14:12 began on very low/no-volume $1.37/8 (interrupted by 14:21's 100 $1.39) on 13:49's 2.5K $1.3763. At 13:59 b/a was 30.4K:1.9K $1.37/8. 14:12's 200 $1.38 ended the period.
14:13-14:54 inherited b/a at 14:13 28K:~3.5K $1.37/9. After four no-trades minutes very low/no-volume $1.37/9 began. B/a at 14:18 was 32K:~3.5K $1.37/9. 14:54's ~2K $1.3862 ended the period.
14:55-16:00 started with b/a at 14:56 ~3.5K:~1.3K $1.38/9. After eight no-trades minutes began some volatility trading initially very low/no-volume $1.39/40. 15:05 b/a was 3.7K:4K $1.38/40 (with 43 $1.39 offered). 15:19 began medium-volume $1.38/40 (most $1.39ish). At 15:28 b/a was 2.5K:2.8K $1.38/40 (w/34 offered $1.39). At 15:27 range went to $1.39/40 (more $1.3950 than $1.39) and 15:51 b/a was 200:2.4K $1.39/40. 15:59 did 1.3K $$1.38/9 and 16:00's 318 $1.40 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 40,781, 28.55% of day's volume, with a $1.3825 VWAP.
On my minimal chart we had a lower high and low, in contrast to yesterdays higher low and lower high. We traded further below the potential rising resistance (rising green line) and closer to the rising support (rising white line) on continued falling volume. That volume is the only "positive" as it suggests no strength in the move lower.
It appears the manipulation I mentioned yesterday, 7K ~4%+ drop from 15:04-:09, was effective and I should have considered it more strongly in guessing what today might bring. I erroneously went neutral based on it rather than negative.
Regardless, we are approaching the rising potential support (white line) with falling volume. That offers the possibility we get a reversal when we encounter the line, ~$1.35 today. We know we have support at $1.34. I assume we could get some overshoot, maybe to $1.30-$1.33, if one wants to make a short-term round-trip play. If volume doesn't come in though when we hit the support, and lower levels, I think it might not end up being a good trade.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs are all dropping. With low volume and my unconventional stuff having conflicts within, I'll forego detailing what happens to the SMAs if we hold range because nothing but the volume and some trend lines on the minimal chart suggest we might do so.
The oscillators I watch all weakened but for MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. Nothing is oversold and nothing is above neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3425 and $1.5975 ($1.3544 and $1.6087 yesterday) continue descending with the upper and lower limits substantially parallel. Mid-point is still above our price range.
All in, only the reducing volume and approach to the rising support offer the possibility of near-term positive moves. One can't trade on that though, especially if my unconventional stuff is also considered.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but all is not well in Gotham!. We had strong buy percentage sans a price rise, suggesting careful short covering was likely the cause of the buy percentage. But the short percentage was excessively high, especially sans a price rise. excessive short is common, normal and even expected when a rise, especially a rocket-shot, occurs but is totally inconsistent with normal[ low-volume weak price scenarios.
My first suspicion is MMs naked shorting to meet short-covering buys demand. If the MMs had almost no inventory and they were making money by providing liquidity, for which the exchanges pay them a fee per transaction, this might account for the short percentage. It also means lower price should appear, sans a catalyst, as the MMs will lower price to do their covering buys since a large part of their naked shorts were likely not backed by sell orders from longs and/or shorts.
All guesswork and supposition on this though - clarity of the inner workings is not provided by our markets or their regulators.
The spread was very reasonable and could suggest bottoming in preparation for a turn when volume is factored in. But the other factors don't support this.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings unchanged with thirteen negatives and eleven positives. Change since 05/12 -$0.0630, -4.35%.
All in, the conflicts between lack of price movement up while buy and short percentages were high make me think we go lower tomorrow, sans a catalyst.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
As with yesterday, there were some oddities that make me suspicious. The difference is today they were to the upside and consisted of small trades going off above the offer price. Now, in full disclosure, this probably shouldn't be suspicious because an intra/inter-broker match-up could occur at a price above NBBO (National Best Bid/Offer). Brokers, trying to keep fees to a minimum and also service their customers could do such a match in-house.
Nevertheless, this is so unusual and infrequently seen that it must cause suspicion in any sentient and semi-inquisitive intelligent being, of which I consider myself one ... maybe erroneously!
. Today was ugly in my unconventional stuff, considering that intra-day buy percentage 10:45-14:00 never dropped below 60%. That suggests what appeared to be strength was in reality nothing more than shorters, who are very good at buying without pushing price upwards, doing careful covering buys I think. Adding in the short percentage at 61.61% (see below) being excessive (heavy MM naked shorting evidenced by lack of price rise in the face of strong buy percentages?) and this all looks quite negative as the MMs will have no reason to hold price up.
If my guess is correct we should get a down day as the MMs will have no reason to support price. In fact, they would want lower prices so they could do covering buys if a large part of their (naked?) shorts were not backed by real sell orders from their customers.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:24 opened the day with a 1,050 sell for $1.38 and b/a went ~9.2K:2.7K $1.38/41. Next was 9:35-:36's ~1.2K $1.38 and b/a went 8.5K:3.6K $1.38/41, 9:44's ~2.9K $1.38->$1.3941, 9:45's 250 $1.3905, 9:46's 200 $1.40/1 and b/a went 700:4.2K $1.39/41. Below the $1.39 bid was a presented ~9K $1.38. Keep in mind some may have been masked by the higher $1.39 bids. Then came 9:49's 100 $1.41, 10:01's 200 $1.41 and b/a went 700:3.4K $1.39/41. Then came 10:11's 114 $1.40, 10:12's 100 $1.4099, 10:13-:20's no trades, 10:21's 100 $1.40, and 10:24's 100 $1.41 ended the period.
10:25-10:43 had 10:28's b/a at 9.1K:~3K $1.38/$1.40. After twelve no-trades minutes, began a rapid descent to $1.3750 (intra-day low) on 10:36-38's ~2.3K $1.40->$1.39->$1.38. Then 10:43's ~24.3K $1.3750/$1.38 ended the period.
10:44-13:02 began a very low/no-volume slow rise through 11:10 on 10:44's ~18.9K $1.3799/$1.38 left b/a at 20K:1.9K $1.37/9. 10:55's b/a was 24.7K:1.9K $1.37/9. 10:56 did 100 $1.40. B/a went 2.3K:300 $1.38/40, then at 10:58 1.8K:~3.4K $1.38/40, at 11:08 2.4K:3.2K $1.38/40. 11:10 did 100 $1.41 but b/a was 3.2K:2.3K $1.38/40. Then the rise ceased and began very low/no-volume $1.39/$1.41 (with rising lows initially) on 11:23's 1K $1.3874. 13:01-:02's 401 $1.39 put b/a to 9.4K:1.7K $1.38/9 and ended the period.
13:03-13:48, after nine no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.38/9 (mostly $1.38) on 13:12's 2.9K $1.38, leaving b/a at 5.3K:3.2K $1.38/9. AT 13:23 b/a was 2.7K:4.3K $1.38/9. 13:35's 3.4K $1.38/$1.3899 left b/a at 1.4K:3.4K $1.38/9. At 13:45 b/a was 800:3.4K $1.38/9. 13:48's ~3,8K $1.3850->$1.38->$1.37 ended the period.
13:49-14:12 began on very low/no-volume $1.37/8 (interrupted by 14:21's 100 $1.39) on 13:49's 2.5K $1.3763. At 13:59 b/a was 30.4K:1.9K $1.37/8. 14:12's 200 $1.38 ended the period.
14:13-14:54 inherited b/a at 14:13 28K:~3.5K $1.37/9. After four no-trades minutes very low/no-volume $1.37/9 began. B/a at 14:18 was 32K:~3.5K $1.37/9. 14:54's ~2K $1.3862 ended the period.
14:55-16:00 started with b/a at 14:56 ~3.5K:~1.3K $1.38/9. After eight no-trades minutes began some volatility trading initially very low/no-volume $1.39/40. 15:05 b/a was 3.7K:4K $1.38/40 (with 43 $1.39 offered). 15:19 began medium-volume $1.38/40 (most $1.39ish). At 15:28 b/a was 2.5K:2.8K $1.38/40 (w/34 offered $1.39). At 15:27 range went to $1.39/40 (more $1.3950 than $1.39) and 15:51 b/a was 200:2.4K $1.39/40. 15:59 did 1.3K $$1.38/9 and 16:00's 318 $1.40 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 40,781, 28.55% of day's volume, with a $1.3825 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:24 6326 $1.3800 $1.4100 $8,782.18 $1.3883 4.43% 9.11%
10:43 26615 $1.3750 $1.4000 $36,731.05 $1.3801 18.64% 59.20% Incl 10:43 $1.3800 7,215 5,000 $1.3799 6,100
13:02 28024 $1.3799 $1.4200 $38,830.83 $1.3856 19.62% 66.59% Incl 10:44 $1.3799 8,600 $1.3800 8,600
13:48 14980 $1.3700 $1.3900 $20,698.25 $1.3817 10.49% 60.78%
14:12 6500 $1.3700 $1.3800 $8,930.80 $1.3740 4.55% 59.25%
14:54 18780 $1.3737 $1.3900 $25,906.85 $1.3795 13.15% 53.88%
16:00 40551 $1.3800 $1.4000 $56,539.35 $1.3943 28.39% 55.73% Incl 15:36 $1.3999 5,266
Movements are just plain ugly - see comments above.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.17% -1.44% -3.40% -0.71% -8.88%
Prior 0.70% 2.96% 0.00% -2.76% -55.82%
On my minimal chart we had a lower high and low, in contrast to yesterdays higher low and lower high. We traded further below the potential rising resistance (rising green line) and closer to the rising support (rising white line) on continued falling volume. That volume is the only "positive" as it suggests no strength in the move lower.
It appears the manipulation I mentioned yesterday, 7K ~4%+ drop from 15:04-:09, was effective and I should have considered it more strongly in guessing what today might bring. I erroneously went neutral based on it rather than negative.
Regardless, we are approaching the rising potential support (white line) with falling volume. That offers the possibility we get a reversal when we encounter the line, ~$1.35 today. We know we have support at $1.34. I assume we could get some overshoot, maybe to $1.30-$1.33, if one wants to make a short-term round-trip play. If volume doesn't come in though when we hit the support, and lower levels, I think it might not end up being a good trade.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs are all dropping. With low volume and my unconventional stuff having conflicts within, I'll forego detailing what happens to the SMAs if we hold range because nothing but the volume and some trend lines on the minimal chart suggest we might do so.
The oscillators I watch all weakened but for MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. Nothing is oversold and nothing is above neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3425 and $1.5975 ($1.3544 and $1.6087 yesterday) continue descending with the upper and lower limits substantially parallel. Mid-point is still above our price range.
All in, only the reducing volume and approach to the rising support offer the possibility of near-term positive moves. One can't trade on that though, especially if my unconventional stuff is also considered.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but all is not well in Gotham!. We had strong buy percentage sans a price rise, suggesting careful short covering was likely the cause of the buy percentage. But the short percentage was excessively high, especially sans a price rise. excessive short is common, normal and even expected when a rise, especially a rocket-shot, occurs but is totally inconsistent with normal[ low-volume weak price scenarios.
My first suspicion is MMs naked shorting to meet short-covering buys demand. If the MMs had almost no inventory and they were making money by providing liquidity, for which the exchanges pay them a fee per transaction, this might account for the short percentage. It also means lower price should appear, sans a catalyst, as the MMs will lower price to do their covering buys since a large part of their naked shorts were likely not backed by sell orders from longs and/or shorts.
All guesswork and supposition on this though - clarity of the inner workings is not provided by our markets or their regulators.
The spread was very reasonable and could suggest bottoming in preparation for a turn when volume is factored in. But the other factors don't support this.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings unchanged with thirteen negatives and eleven positives. Change since 05/12 -$0.0630, -4.35%.
All in, the conflicts between lack of price movement up while buy and short percentages were high make me think we go lower tomorrow, sans a catalyst.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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