Thursday, June 16, 2016 9:14:20 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/15 2016 EOD
Today was looking pretty good with an atypical open high and drop only a little and the recover to make a new high and sustain that range, pretty much, 11:07-15:03. VWAPs and buy percentages were really decent too. Only fly in the ointment was very low volume, which proved to be the undoing of the conventional, and unconventional, TA. 15:04-:09 had 7K manipulate price from $1.45/6 to $1.39, the intra-day low. Even so we ended with decent buy and intra-day short percentages.
Knowing about the manipulation and combining that with my unconventional stuff, I "overrule" the conventional TA, which suggests likely weakness or at least no strength to the upside, and I'm going mildly bullish, essentially continuing yesterday's call which was proving prescient prior to 15:04.
The risk here is that most folks do conventional TA and will respond to that because they may not see all I see or may interpret it differently.
Regardless, I'm hanging my neck out and sticking with mildly bullish.
At 13:00 we had
Then someone had a need and engineered a 4.79% drop from 1.46 to $1.39 on a lousy 7.1K over 5 minutes 15:05-:09. We never came back much from that and ended 15:59 at $1.40 and the period and day on 16:00's 326 buy for $1.41.
There were two pre-market sells, $1.47 x 2K & 1,410.
09:30-10:06 opened the day with a 1,121 buy for $1.44 and then saw 9:31-:40's no-trades with b/a sitting at 200:1.6K $1.41/5, at 9:38 700:2K $1.41/5, and 9:39 ~1.2K:1K $1.41/3. Trades resumed on 9:41's 1.1K $1.42 x 100 & $1.4299's x 1K and b/a went ~1.3K:1.3K $1.41/3. B/a at 9:45 was ~1.3K:1.6K $1.41/3. Then 9:46 traded 500 $1.42 and b/a went 200:100 $1.41/2. 9:47's 500 $1.42 put b/a to 400:~100 $1.41/2. 9:48-:54 had no trades. 9:55's 100 $1.42 put b/a to 300:1.6K $1.41/3, 9:57's 800 $1.41 put b/a to 3K:100 $1.40/2, 10:00's 100 $1.42 put b/a to 2.6K:2.2K $1.40/3. 10:02's 100 $1.42 and 10:04's 2K $1.43 put b/a to 2.1K:200 $1.40/2. 10:06's 100 $1.42 left b/a at 2.4K:100 $1.40/2 and ended the period.
10:07-10:20 began a very low/no-volume rise from $1.40/1 on 10:08's ~10K $1.41->$1.40 (new intra-day low), which put b/a to 3.3K:100 $1.40/1. 10:20's 200 $1.43 moved range to $1.42/3 and put b/a to 4.4K:~2.1K $1.40/3 and ended the period.
10:21-11:03, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume flattish $1.42/3 on 10:23's 100 $1.43. At 10:34 b/a was 2.2K:1.6K $1.41/3, 10:47 1.7K:900 $1.42/3. The price was interrupted by 10:56's 1.3K $1.42->$1.40->$1.42. 11:03's 300 $1.4250 ended the period.
11:04-11:13 began a small low/no-volume rise on 11:04's ~2.6K $1.43->$1.4350, hit 11:06's 100 $1.44, 11:07's 2.4K $1.44->$1.4514 (putting b/a to 3K:2.4K $1.44/6), 11:10's 200 $1.46 (b/a went 1.5K:1.5K $1.45/6), and 11:13's 200 $1.46 ended the period.
11:14-11:56, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.44/$1.45 (interrupted by 11:32's ~5.1K $1.43/4, 11:49's 100 $1.46) on 11:16's $1.45->$1.4450->$1.4498->$1.45. 11:23 had b/a 2K:300 $1.44/5, 11:34 1.3K:100 $1.44/5, 11:41 1.5K:300 $1.44/5. 11:56's 200 $1.45 trade ended the period and put b/a to 3K:3K $1.44/6.
11:57-13:59, after nine no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.45/6 with 12:01's b/a at 1.6K:3K $1.45/6 and 12:04's trade of 1K $1.46, interrupted by 13:31's 3.3K $1.45/$1.4550. 12:09's b/a was 1.9K:3.1K $1.45/6, 12:30 1.2K:2.8K $1.45/6, 12:43 3.1K:1.6K $1.45/6, 12:55 3.3K:2.1K $1.45/6, 13:17 3.1K:1.3K $1.45/6, 13:28 ~3.1K:1K $1.45/6, 13:34 ~4K:3.7K $1.45/6, 13:53 ~8.5K:1.8K $1.45/6, 14:02 7.5K:1.6K $1.45/6. The period ended on 13:59's 308 $1.4562.
14:00-15:03, after four no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.44/5 (interrupted by 14:35's 100 $1.46) on 14:04-:05's ~9.3K $1.46->$1.45->$1.44, 14:06's 865 $1.444, 14:07's 5K $1.4475, leaving b/a at 300:400 $1.44/5. At 14:20 b/a was ~600:400 $1.44/5, 14:33 ~300:3.2K $1.44/6, 14:37 ~300:100 $1.44/5, 14:45 ~1.1K:300 $1.44/5. 15:03's ~1.9K $1.44 ended the period.
15:04-15:09, after a no-trades minute, began a rapid drop on 15:05-:08's ~6.9K $1.43->$1.42->$1.40 and bottomed on 15:09's 200 $1.39 (new low) to end the period.
15:10-15:38 began a small recovery and then very low/no-volume $1.40/1 on 15:10's 820 $1.3920, hitting 15:16's 2.5K $1.3949/$1.40. This left b/a at ~200:5.9K $1.39/$1.41. Then 15:21's ~6.1K $1.4099 left b/a at 6.1K:4.9K $1.40/1. 15:24's 100 $1.41 left b/a at 5.8K:~5.2K $1.40/1. 15:38's 10.2K $1.40 left b/a at ~1.9K:1.5K $1.39/$1.40 and ended the period.
15:39-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began low/no-volume $1.39/41 on 15:41's 2K $1.3950/$1.3999. At 15:46 b/a was 1.7K:1.2K $1.39/40, 15:47 2.2K:3.7K $1.39/41, 15:48 ~2K:1K $1.39/40. 16:00's 326 buy for $1.41 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 45,797, 29.22% of day's volume, with a $1.4188 VWAP. As is the most common case, the VWAP of the larger trades is slightly below the day's VWAP of $1.4263.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
If the manipulation had not occurred our close would have likely been $1.45 or $1.46, at or above yesterday's close.
On my minimal chart we had a higher low and lower high (unless we include the pre-market $1.47 - then the high would be flat). Our low pulled further above the medium-term rising potential support (rising white line) and fell just below the potential resistance (rising green line) unless we use the pre-market high of $1.47, in which case we again topped right on it.
Sans the manipulation I mentioned above, our close would likely be $1.45 or $1.46 instead of the $1.41 we saw, which would put our close at or above yesterday's close.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs both dropped, with the 20-day giving up it's one-day rise due to today's lower close. If we hold here the 20-day will drop for one day and then go essentially flat one day and then begin a long fall (~16 days). Of course we are unlikely to see close flat over this period. The 10-day would continue to fall for a couple weeks if we have a static close. The 50-day continues a slow rise and would continue three more days if we hold flat. Thereafter it would begin to fall.
The rise I'm suspecting will occur is not off the table yet due to the effects of the obvious manipulation mentioned above. Trying to guess at it's purpose, I see short covering or someone wanting to accumulate at lower prices. On low-volume days with little price pressure upward, shorters can easily invest 7K worth of money, $9,855.20, to then cover at $1.39/40 (see intra-day breakdown above, last two periods). An argument can be made that the percentage of day's volume and buy percentage remaining above 49% the last three periods supports this.
Those same considerations would support someone wanting to buy low. If it was a "good customer" of a broker or MM (or both), the scenario would include pushing price down while volume and upward price pressure was weak and then scooping up shares at the lower price. This would suggest a larger trade might be seen "out of channel" in the next few days. "out of channel" refers to the multiple periods throughout the day that NASDAQ (and maybe others?) set aside for inter-/intra-broker/MM trades that avoid fees. You don't see the bids or offers for these - they just "happen" out of the blue, usually within a few minutes after the top of the hour.
Once accumulation is complete, we don't see, e.g., the 7K share 4%+ price drop in a few minutes. If it's shorters, we could continue to see such.
The oscillators I watch had ADX-related flattish, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic marginally strengthened. The rest weakened. All are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3544 and $1.6087 ($1.3675 and $1.6171 yesterday) continue falling in a quite close to parallel configuration. Mid-point is slightly above our current range.
All in, if I hadn't seen that intra-day 7K manipulation down 15:04-:09, I'd be negative, at least marginally, based on the lower volume combined with lower high and close and the oscillators movements. Having seen the manipulation though, I think I'll go neutral here because I would not be surprised to see strength return tomorrow. I can't make a call that direction though because I don't know who manipulated or why and other TA folks that don't watch as I do are likely to respond to what the conventional charting components are telling us - not bullish and slightly negative.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, up and good, and the short percentage is barely above the top of my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is barely below what I think is needed for sustained appreciation. More positively, it was above that, 50%+ from 12:30 - 14:30 and just barely below that many other 15-minute periods during the day, including after the manipulation lower: 15:15 at 50.78% and 15:30 51.67%. I think in aggregate this suggests we do have some underlying strength lurking, but I wouldn't suggest it's consistent enough to cause a sustained rise in price.
The spread narrowed a bit even though it was the result of a typical open high and fall and in spite of both the pre-market $1.47 high (official was $1.46) and the manipulation down to $1.39, which likely would have been $1.40. $1.40-$1.46 would have yielded a spread of 4.29%, a pretty-much "normal" spread when no big move is being made. So I'm reading all this as not a strong indication of near-term weakness and it's a pretty-much a "neutral" today.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings unchanged with thirteen negatives and eleven positives. Change since 05/11 is -$0.0889, -5.87%.
All in, my unconventional stuff says there no reason to go lower. Considering the short and buy percentages I think it's even mildly bullish for the near-term.
So I'm going to continue yesterday for the most part with a "mildly" added on.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Today was looking pretty good with an atypical open high and drop only a little and the recover to make a new high and sustain that range, pretty much, 11:07-15:03. VWAPs and buy percentages were really decent too. Only fly in the ointment was very low volume, which proved to be the undoing of the conventional, and unconventional, TA. 15:04-:09 had 7K manipulate price from $1.45/6 to $1.39, the intra-day low. Even so we ended with decent buy and intra-day short percentages.
Knowing about the manipulation and combining that with my unconventional stuff, I "overrule" the conventional TA, which suggests likely weakness or at least no strength to the upside, and I'm going mildly bullish, essentially continuing yesterday's call which was proving prescient prior to 15:04.
The risk here is that most folks do conventional TA and will respond to that because they may not see all I see or may interpret it differently.
Regardless, I'm hanging my neck out and sticking with mildly bullish.
At 13:00 we had
And it continued with strong buy percentages and price at $1.45/6 through a few minutes after 15:00.Time_ Volum Min.Pr. Max.Pr. Traded Val. __VWAP_ % Chg
13:00 75549 $1.4000 $1.4700 $108,426.64 $1.4352 +1.05%
Then someone had a need and engineered a 4.79% drop from 1.46 to $1.39 on a lousy 7.1K over 5 minutes 15:05-:09. We never came back much from that and ended 15:59 at $1.40 and the period and day on 16:00's 326 buy for $1.41.
There were two pre-market sells, $1.47 x 2K & 1,410.
09:30-10:06 opened the day with a 1,121 buy for $1.44 and then saw 9:31-:40's no-trades with b/a sitting at 200:1.6K $1.41/5, at 9:38 700:2K $1.41/5, and 9:39 ~1.2K:1K $1.41/3. Trades resumed on 9:41's 1.1K $1.42 x 100 & $1.4299's x 1K and b/a went ~1.3K:1.3K $1.41/3. B/a at 9:45 was ~1.3K:1.6K $1.41/3. Then 9:46 traded 500 $1.42 and b/a went 200:100 $1.41/2. 9:47's 500 $1.42 put b/a to 400:~100 $1.41/2. 9:48-:54 had no trades. 9:55's 100 $1.42 put b/a to 300:1.6K $1.41/3, 9:57's 800 $1.41 put b/a to 3K:100 $1.40/2, 10:00's 100 $1.42 put b/a to 2.6K:2.2K $1.40/3. 10:02's 100 $1.42 and 10:04's 2K $1.43 put b/a to 2.1K:200 $1.40/2. 10:06's 100 $1.42 left b/a at 2.4K:100 $1.40/2 and ended the period.
10:07-10:20 began a very low/no-volume rise from $1.40/1 on 10:08's ~10K $1.41->$1.40 (new intra-day low), which put b/a to 3.3K:100 $1.40/1. 10:20's 200 $1.43 moved range to $1.42/3 and put b/a to 4.4K:~2.1K $1.40/3 and ended the period.
10:21-11:03, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume flattish $1.42/3 on 10:23's 100 $1.43. At 10:34 b/a was 2.2K:1.6K $1.41/3, 10:47 1.7K:900 $1.42/3. The price was interrupted by 10:56's 1.3K $1.42->$1.40->$1.42. 11:03's 300 $1.4250 ended the period.
11:04-11:13 began a small low/no-volume rise on 11:04's ~2.6K $1.43->$1.4350, hit 11:06's 100 $1.44, 11:07's 2.4K $1.44->$1.4514 (putting b/a to 3K:2.4K $1.44/6), 11:10's 200 $1.46 (b/a went 1.5K:1.5K $1.45/6), and 11:13's 200 $1.46 ended the period.
11:14-11:56, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.44/$1.45 (interrupted by 11:32's ~5.1K $1.43/4, 11:49's 100 $1.46) on 11:16's $1.45->$1.4450->$1.4498->$1.45. 11:23 had b/a 2K:300 $1.44/5, 11:34 1.3K:100 $1.44/5, 11:41 1.5K:300 $1.44/5. 11:56's 200 $1.45 trade ended the period and put b/a to 3K:3K $1.44/6.
11:57-13:59, after nine no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.45/6 with 12:01's b/a at 1.6K:3K $1.45/6 and 12:04's trade of 1K $1.46, interrupted by 13:31's 3.3K $1.45/$1.4550. 12:09's b/a was 1.9K:3.1K $1.45/6, 12:30 1.2K:2.8K $1.45/6, 12:43 3.1K:1.6K $1.45/6, 12:55 3.3K:2.1K $1.45/6, 13:17 3.1K:1.3K $1.45/6, 13:28 ~3.1K:1K $1.45/6, 13:34 ~4K:3.7K $1.45/6, 13:53 ~8.5K:1.8K $1.45/6, 14:02 7.5K:1.6K $1.45/6. The period ended on 13:59's 308 $1.4562.
14:00-15:03, after four no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.44/5 (interrupted by 14:35's 100 $1.46) on 14:04-:05's ~9.3K $1.46->$1.45->$1.44, 14:06's 865 $1.444, 14:07's 5K $1.4475, leaving b/a at 300:400 $1.44/5. At 14:20 b/a was ~600:400 $1.44/5, 14:33 ~300:3.2K $1.44/6, 14:37 ~300:100 $1.44/5, 14:45 ~1.1K:300 $1.44/5. 15:03's ~1.9K $1.44 ended the period.
15:04-15:09, after a no-trades minute, began a rapid drop on 15:05-:08's ~6.9K $1.43->$1.42->$1.40 and bottomed on 15:09's 200 $1.39 (new low) to end the period.
15:10-15:38 began a small recovery and then very low/no-volume $1.40/1 on 15:10's 820 $1.3920, hitting 15:16's 2.5K $1.3949/$1.40. This left b/a at ~200:5.9K $1.39/$1.41. Then 15:21's ~6.1K $1.4099 left b/a at 6.1K:4.9K $1.40/1. 15:24's 100 $1.41 left b/a at 5.8K:~5.2K $1.40/1. 15:38's 10.2K $1.40 left b/a at ~1.9K:1.5K $1.39/$1.40 and ended the period.
15:39-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began low/no-volume $1.39/41 on 15:41's 2K $1.3950/$1.3999. At 15:46 b/a was 1.7K:1.2K $1.39/40, 15:47 2.2K:3.7K $1.39/41, 15:48 ~2K:1K $1.39/40. 16:00's 326 buy for $1.41 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 45,797, 29.22% of day's volume, with a $1.4188 VWAP. As is the most common case, the VWAP of the larger trades is slightly below the day's VWAP of $1.4263.
Note the 15:09 period vs. 15:03 in which 7K shares dropped price range from $1.45/6 to $1.39. Obvious manipulation, IMO, to accomplish someone's goals. See the note above about the positive stance at 13:00 and note 13:03's more positive stance as well in both VWAP (vs. yesterday's $1.4203) and buy percentage (vs. yesterday's 49.76%). It looks like mission accomplished! as both VWAP and buy percentage finished below yesterday's, aided by the normal EOD higher volume.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:06 9831 $1.4100 $1.4700 $14,174.64 $1.4418 6.27% 45.40%
10:20 11376 $1.4000 $1.4300 $15,939.46 $1.4011 7.26% 32.07% Incl 10:08 $1.4000 5,898
11:03 14502 $1.4000 $1.4300 $20,648.90 $1.4239 9.25% 38.65% Incl 10:49 $1.4274 4,700
11:13 5937 $1.4300 $1.4600 $8,551.81 $1.4404 3.79% 41.63%
11:56 27303 $1.4300 $1.4600 $39,487.04 $1.4463 17.42% 48.05% Incl 11:16 $1.4500 9,500
13:59 15308 $1.4500 $1.4600 $22,304.50 $1.4570 9.77% 52.81%
15:03 19909 $1.4400 $1.4600 $28,811.04 $1.4471 12.70% 50.05% Incl 14:07 $1.4475 5,000
15:09 7000 $1.3900 $1.4272 $9,855.20 $1.4079 4.47% 50.42%
15:38 24610 $1.3920 $1.4100 $34,502.52 $1.4020 15.70% 49.63% Incl 15:21 $1.4099 6,000 15:38 $1.4000 5,700
16:00 20097 $1.3900 $1.4100 $28,050.52 $1.3958 12.82% 49.87% Incl 15:52 $1.3956 8,999
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
NOTE! The "official" high was $1.46, down from yesterday's $1.47 by 0.68%. Excluding the close, caused by manipulation IMO, today's movements look pretty good, even allowing for the reduced volume. The volume reducing after the big bump yesterday after exiting the "three-day window" for catalyst effects is not unusual nor that concerning. It does however suggest no strength yet in any upward movement.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.70% 2.96% 0.00% -2.76% -55.82%
Prior 2.14% 0.00% 2.80% 5.07% 89.06%
If the manipulation had not occurred our close would have likely been $1.45 or $1.46, at or above yesterday's close.
On my minimal chart we had a higher low and lower high (unless we include the pre-market $1.47 - then the high would be flat). Our low pulled further above the medium-term rising potential support (rising white line) and fell just below the potential resistance (rising green line) unless we use the pre-market high of $1.47, in which case we again topped right on it.
Sans the manipulation I mentioned above, our close would likely be $1.45 or $1.46 instead of the $1.41 we saw, which would put our close at or above yesterday's close.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs both dropped, with the 20-day giving up it's one-day rise due to today's lower close. If we hold here the 20-day will drop for one day and then go essentially flat one day and then begin a long fall (~16 days). Of course we are unlikely to see close flat over this period. The 10-day would continue to fall for a couple weeks if we have a static close. The 50-day continues a slow rise and would continue three more days if we hold flat. Thereafter it would begin to fall.
The rise I'm suspecting will occur is not off the table yet due to the effects of the obvious manipulation mentioned above. Trying to guess at it's purpose, I see short covering or someone wanting to accumulate at lower prices. On low-volume days with little price pressure upward, shorters can easily invest 7K worth of money, $9,855.20, to then cover at $1.39/40 (see intra-day breakdown above, last two periods). An argument can be made that the percentage of day's volume and buy percentage remaining above 49% the last three periods supports this.
Those same considerations would support someone wanting to buy low. If it was a "good customer" of a broker or MM (or both), the scenario would include pushing price down while volume and upward price pressure was weak and then scooping up shares at the lower price. This would suggest a larger trade might be seen "out of channel" in the next few days. "out of channel" refers to the multiple periods throughout the day that NASDAQ (and maybe others?) set aside for inter-/intra-broker/MM trades that avoid fees. You don't see the bids or offers for these - they just "happen" out of the blue, usually within a few minutes after the top of the hour.
Once accumulation is complete, we don't see, e.g., the 7K share 4%+ price drop in a few minutes. If it's shorters, we could continue to see such.
The oscillators I watch had ADX-related flattish, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic marginally strengthened. The rest weakened. All are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3544 and $1.6087 ($1.3675 and $1.6171 yesterday) continue falling in a quite close to parallel configuration. Mid-point is slightly above our current range.
All in, if I hadn't seen that intra-day 7K manipulation down 15:04-:09, I'd be negative, at least marginally, based on the lower volume combined with lower high and close and the oscillators movements. Having seen the manipulation though, I think I'll go neutral here because I would not be surprised to see strength return tomorrow. I can't make a call that direction though because I don't know who manipulated or why and other TA folks that don't watch as I do are likely to respond to what the conventional charting components are telling us - not bullish and slightly negative.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, up and good, and the short percentage is barely above the top of my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is barely below what I think is needed for sustained appreciation. More positively, it was above that, 50%+ from 12:30 - 14:30 and just barely below that many other 15-minute periods during the day, including after the manipulation lower: 15:15 at 50.78% and 15:30 51.67%. I think in aggregate this suggests we do have some underlying strength lurking, but I wouldn't suggest it's consistent enough to cause a sustained rise in price.
The spread narrowed a bit even though it was the result of a typical open high and fall and in spite of both the pre-market $1.47 high (official was $1.46) and the manipulation down to $1.39, which likely would have been $1.40. $1.40-$1.46 would have yielded a spread of 4.29%, a pretty-much "normal" spread when no big move is being made. So I'm reading all this as not a strong indication of near-term weakness and it's a pretty-much a "neutral" today.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings unchanged with thirteen negatives and eleven positives. Change since 05/11 is -$0.0889, -5.87%.
All in, my unconventional stuff says there no reason to go lower. Considering the short and buy percentages I think it's even mildly bullish for the near-term.
So I'm going to continue yesterday for the most part with a "mildly" added on.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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