AI
Wednesday, June 15, 2016 9:02:33 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/14 2016 EOD
I did an unusual, for me, intra-day round-trip, buying at $1.36 and selling at $1.43, netting after fees a 3.01% intra-day scalp.
Since today's stuff, subsequent to the "three-day catalyst window" working as expected, gave us a bullish intra-day and
conventional TA result and my unconventional stuff does not contradict that strongly, I'm near-term bullish.
Today's opening trade is exceptionally large relative to recent history. At $1.45 it was also well above yesterday's close of $1.38. This is like the old pre-split days ... Well, further back than that - maybe if one can remember before confidence in management was lost.
Normalcy returns! We did our typical open high (hit $1.47 in the opening minute) and then plunged to 9:56's $1.3575 by 9:56. Of course, we then went flat at $1.36/7 on very low/no-volume through 10:25, sagged lower to the day's low of $1.35 through 10:41, and then finally began a very long, slow intermittent series steps of up, flat, up, flat, ... to hit $1.45 at 13:07 and then go flattish $1.44/5 through 14:01, drop to $1.43/4 and go flattish there (with a couple one-minute drops to $1.42 along the way) through 15:48. Then the EOD volatility kicked in and we popped to $1.44/5 to end the day at $1.45.
Buy percentage was fairly well-behaved too - 10:45 was 63.27% after we finished the drop for the morning, didn't get to less than 50% while the rise was happening until 13:00's 47.22% and even while we hung around the $1.42-$1.45 area through 15:50 the buy percentage did not go below ~43.6%. This is notable because it means we had less selling into strength than seen recently. And the we ended the day 15:59's 46.83% and 16:00's 47.1%. These last two readings are relatively good for this symbol in recent history, although not sufficient to suggest long-term, or even by itself short-term, sustained appreciation..
There were four pre-market trades totaling 500 $1.41.
09:30-09:52 opened the day with a buy of 45.1K for $1.43 and traded another ~7.3K $1.43/7. Then came 9:31's 865 $1.4302, 9:33's 500 $1.4050, 9:34's 100 $1.40, 9:35's 900 $1.39, 9:38's 2.5K $1.39, 9:41's 200 $1.40, 9:42's 400 $1.39, 9:43's 100 $1.39 and b/a went 1K:3.6K $1.38/$1.40. Then came 9:44's $1.39->$1.38 (new low) that moved b/a to 5K:1.8K $1.37/8, 9:45-:50's no trades, 9:51's 9.K $1.3799->$1.3650 (new low), and 9:52's 1K $1.37 ended the period and b/a went 1.4K:1.4K $1.35/6.
09:53-10:40 began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 (new low), interrupted by 10:26's 10.6K $1.3530/$1.36 and 10:41's 500 $1.35/6 - new low,) on 9:56's ~1.7K $1.3575/$1.36 (put b/a to ~1.5K:400 $1.35/6). AT 10:13 b/a went 200:2.5K $1.37/8, 10:14 2.6K:2.5K $1.36/8, 10:18 2.9K:2.5K $1.36/8, 10:24 ~4.8K:3.5K $1.35/7, and 10:29 ~10.3K:3K $1.35/7. 10:40's 100 $1.3641 ended the period.
10:41-13:07 began a very low/no-volume move up on 10:41's 500 $1.35/6, hitting 10:42's 900 $1.36/8, 10:54's 200 $1.39, 11:14-:33's drop back to $1.37/8, 11:35-:39's move to $1.39/$1.40, hit 12:27's 26.8K $1.40->$1.42, 12:46's 25.2K $1.42->$1.43, 12:58-:59's 5.2K $1.43->$1.44, and 13:07's 14.2K $1.43->$1.45 ended the rise and the period.
13:08-13:56 began a very low/no-volume $1.44/5 and ended the period on 13:56's 1.2K $1.44.
13:57-15:44, after four no-trades minutes, did a step down on 14:01's 300 $1.4350 to begin very low/no-volume $1.43/4, interrupted by 14:49's ~9.3K $1.42/3, 15:17's ~5.1K $1.4250/$1.43, and 15:22's ~2.2K $1.4250/$1.43. 15:44's ~600 $1.44 ended the period.
15:45-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility on 15:49's ~15.2K $1.42/3, did 15:51's ~3.1K $1.44->$1.46, 15:52-:59's ~11K $1.44/5 and ended the day on 16:00's ~1.8K $1.45.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 121,205, 34.17% of day's volume, with a $1.4225 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 11 larger trades totaling 76,105, 21.45% of day's volume, with a $1.4180 VWAP. Sans the 45.1K opening block, the % of day's (adjusted) volume would be 24.58%.
These are pretty normal statistics if you exclude the excessively large opening trade.
I adjusted my minimal chart for the new scenario, so it's time for a new one.
The first thing I want to point out is the crossing green lines. If we try and move up one of these two short-term potential resistances could come into play. In fact, look at where we topped out today.
The other new thing to notice is the medium-term rising support marked by the rising white line. This now appears to be well-established support. Because of the recent behavior being more-or-less as expected after the quarterly and year-end report, the several weeks since the last up-leg, the price range being constrained by the medium-term white line and the short-term green line, and the movements detailed above, I think we'll see some continued movement upward come out of all this.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, which had started dropping, saw the 20-day make a rise and if we hold this range will continue that three more days. The 10-day, if we hold range, will drop another day and then begin a rise. The 50-day stopped falling, thanks to today's improvement, and rose and will do so four more days if we hold here. This fits with yesterday's { The 10 and 20 and 50-day should all continue this unless we begin to rise a bit, which I suspect will begin shortly. }. The "I suspect will begin shortly" is the key phrase here. It did, but will it continue?
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday but for RSI, which went flat, and Williams %R, which improved, all improved today. Everything but accumulation/distribution is below neutral. RSI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic are near neutral and three of them could/should get above neutral tomorrow if the upward movement I expect continues.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3675 and $1.6171 ($1.3742 and $1.6258 yesterday) are descending and are almost parallel, dropping the mid-point. We continued "pushing" the lower limit. I expect that to change today if my guess that we improve again is correct.
All in, yesterday's termination of my three-day window after a catalyst by giving us a gain on rising volume and "reasonable" (for us) buy percentage and improving conventional TA indications makes me bullish near-term.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normal, but the buy percentage gain is so small as to be inconsequential. Regardless, the small buy % improvement is a positive, as is the drop in short percentage. But the short percentage is below my desired range a bit. Not enough for me to call it strongly negative. Combined with the intra-day action yesterday I suspect it was due to a higher than usual intra/inter-broker trades volume, which normally generate very few, if any, short flags. This would be normal when price rose as strongly as it did ~10:40 through 13:06 as brokers, and their clients, sold to lock in profits.
The spread widened and was produced by the typical open high and plummet, normal a negative indication. Today's behavior was different than the normal negative though in that we had a quite strong, and relatively long, recovery to near the early-morning highs. This is a sign of bullishness as it means we had buyers willing to come in at higher prices and sellers were not crowding the exits.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings with thirteen negatives and eleven positives, netting a change since 05/10 of -$0.0540, -3.66%.
All in, I'm reading today's stuff near-term bullish.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
I did an unusual, for me, intra-day round-trip, buying at $1.36 and selling at $1.43, netting after fees a 3.01% intra-day scalp.
Since today's stuff, subsequent to the "three-day catalyst window" working as expected, gave us a bullish intra-day and
conventional TA result and my unconventional stuff does not contradict that strongly, I'm near-term bullish.
Today's opening trade is exceptionally large relative to recent history. At $1.45 it was also well above yesterday's close of $1.38. This is like the old pre-split days ... Well, further back than that - maybe if one can remember before confidence in management was lost.
Normalcy returns! We did our typical open high (hit $1.47 in the opening minute) and then plunged to 9:56's $1.3575 by 9:56. Of course, we then went flat at $1.36/7 on very low/no-volume through 10:25, sagged lower to the day's low of $1.35 through 10:41, and then finally began a very long, slow intermittent series steps of up, flat, up, flat, ... to hit $1.45 at 13:07 and then go flattish $1.44/5 through 14:01, drop to $1.43/4 and go flattish there (with a couple one-minute drops to $1.42 along the way) through 15:48. Then the EOD volatility kicked in and we popped to $1.44/5 to end the day at $1.45.
Buy percentage was fairly well-behaved too - 10:45 was 63.27% after we finished the drop for the morning, didn't get to less than 50% while the rise was happening until 13:00's 47.22% and even while we hung around the $1.42-$1.45 area through 15:50 the buy percentage did not go below ~43.6%. This is notable because it means we had less selling into strength than seen recently. And the we ended the day 15:59's 46.83% and 16:00's 47.1%. These last two readings are relatively good for this symbol in recent history, although not sufficient to suggest long-term, or even by itself short-term, sustained appreciation..
There were four pre-market trades totaling 500 $1.41.
09:30-09:52 opened the day with a buy of 45.1K for $1.43 and traded another ~7.3K $1.43/7. Then came 9:31's 865 $1.4302, 9:33's 500 $1.4050, 9:34's 100 $1.40, 9:35's 900 $1.39, 9:38's 2.5K $1.39, 9:41's 200 $1.40, 9:42's 400 $1.39, 9:43's 100 $1.39 and b/a went 1K:3.6K $1.38/$1.40. Then came 9:44's $1.39->$1.38 (new low) that moved b/a to 5K:1.8K $1.37/8, 9:45-:50's no trades, 9:51's 9.K $1.3799->$1.3650 (new low), and 9:52's 1K $1.37 ended the period and b/a went 1.4K:1.4K $1.35/6.
09:53-10:40 began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 (new low), interrupted by 10:26's 10.6K $1.3530/$1.36 and 10:41's 500 $1.35/6 - new low,) on 9:56's ~1.7K $1.3575/$1.36 (put b/a to ~1.5K:400 $1.35/6). AT 10:13 b/a went 200:2.5K $1.37/8, 10:14 2.6K:2.5K $1.36/8, 10:18 2.9K:2.5K $1.36/8, 10:24 ~4.8K:3.5K $1.35/7, and 10:29 ~10.3K:3K $1.35/7. 10:40's 100 $1.3641 ended the period.
10:41-13:07 began a very low/no-volume move up on 10:41's 500 $1.35/6, hitting 10:42's 900 $1.36/8, 10:54's 200 $1.39, 11:14-:33's drop back to $1.37/8, 11:35-:39's move to $1.39/$1.40, hit 12:27's 26.8K $1.40->$1.42, 12:46's 25.2K $1.42->$1.43, 12:58-:59's 5.2K $1.43->$1.44, and 13:07's 14.2K $1.43->$1.45 ended the rise and the period.
13:08-13:56 began a very low/no-volume $1.44/5 and ended the period on 13:56's 1.2K $1.44.
13:57-15:44, after four no-trades minutes, did a step down on 14:01's 300 $1.4350 to begin very low/no-volume $1.43/4, interrupted by 14:49's ~9.3K $1.42/3, 15:17's ~5.1K $1.4250/$1.43, and 15:22's ~2.2K $1.4250/$1.43. 15:44's ~600 $1.44 ended the period.
15:45-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility on 15:49's ~15.2K $1.42/3, did 15:51's ~3.1K $1.44->$1.46, 15:52-:59's ~11K $1.44/5 and ended the day on 16:00's ~1.8K $1.45.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 121,205, 34.17% of day's volume, with a $1.4225 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 11 larger trades totaling 76,105, 21.45% of day's volume, with a $1.4180 VWAP. Sans the 45.1K opening block, the % of day's (adjusted) volume would be 24.58%.
These are pretty normal statistics if you exclude the excessively large opening trade.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:52 71145 $1.3650 $1.4700 $101,108.92 $1.4212 20.05% 77.67% Incl 09:30 $1.4300 45,100 09:30 $1.4700 6,900
10:40 21130 $1.3530 $1.3700 $28,740.65 $1.3602 5.96% 63.69% Incl 10:26 $1.3600 8,100
13:07 129434 $1.3500 $1.4499 $183,066.18 $1.4144 36.49% 46.97% Incl 11:22 $1.3758 6,600 12:27 $1.4100 9,000
12:46 $1.4250 5,400 9,000
13:56 26307 $1.4385 $1.4500 $37,955.28 $1.4428 7.42% 43.84% Incl 13:19 $1.4450 5,000 14:49 $1.4200 8,700
15:44 73330 $1.4200 $1.4400 $104,990.78 $1.4318 20.67% 45.07% Incl 15:16 $1.4300 5,000 15:38 $1.4300 5,000
16:00 31069 $1.4200 $1.4600 $44,660.98 $1.4375 8.76% 47.10% Incl 15:49 $1.4300 7,405
We have several good indications here - higher open, high and close along with a big volume increase. The low stayed flat - the only non-positive here and it's not a negative either.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.14% 0.00% 2.80% 5.07% 89.06%
Prior -6.04% 0.75% -4.67% 0.00% -76.43%
I adjusted my minimal chart for the new scenario, so it's time for a new one.
The first thing I want to point out is the crossing green lines. If we try and move up one of these two short-term potential resistances could come into play. In fact, look at where we topped out today.
The other new thing to notice is the medium-term rising support marked by the rising white line. This now appears to be well-established support. Because of the recent behavior being more-or-less as expected after the quarterly and year-end report, the several weeks since the last up-leg, the price range being constrained by the medium-term white line and the short-term green line, and the movements detailed above, I think we'll see some continued movement upward come out of all this.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, which had started dropping, saw the 20-day make a rise and if we hold this range will continue that three more days. The 10-day, if we hold range, will drop another day and then begin a rise. The 50-day stopped falling, thanks to today's improvement, and rose and will do so four more days if we hold here. This fits with yesterday's { The 10 and 20 and 50-day should all continue this unless we begin to rise a bit, which I suspect will begin shortly. }. The "I suspect will begin shortly" is the key phrase here. It did, but will it continue?
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday but for RSI, which went flat, and Williams %R, which improved, all improved today. Everything but accumulation/distribution is below neutral. RSI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic are near neutral and three of them could/should get above neutral tomorrow if the upward movement I expect continues.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3675 and $1.6171 ($1.3742 and $1.6258 yesterday) are descending and are almost parallel, dropping the mid-point. We continued "pushing" the lower limit. I expect that to change today if my guess that we improve again is correct.
All in, yesterday's termination of my three-day window after a catalyst by giving us a gain on rising volume and "reasonable" (for us) buy percentage and improving conventional TA indications makes me bullish near-term.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normal, but the buy percentage gain is so small as to be inconsequential. Regardless, the small buy % improvement is a positive, as is the drop in short percentage. But the short percentage is below my desired range a bit. Not enough for me to call it strongly negative. Combined with the intra-day action yesterday I suspect it was due to a higher than usual intra/inter-broker trades volume, which normally generate very few, if any, short flags. This would be normal when price rose as strongly as it did ~10:40 through 13:06 as brokers, and their clients, sold to lock in profits.
The spread widened and was produced by the typical open high and plummet, normal a negative indication. Today's behavior was different than the normal negative though in that we had a quite strong, and relatively long, recovery to near the early-morning highs. This is a sign of bullishness as it means we had buyers willing to come in at higher prices and sellers were not crowding the exits.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings with thirteen negatives and eleven positives, netting a change since 05/10 of -$0.0540, -3.66%.
All in, I'm reading today's stuff near-term bullish.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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