Tuesday, June 14, 2016 9:28:07 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/13 2016 EOD
Today was the third day of the Q4/FY-end reporting segment and we started to see the early signs of return to normalcy.
This is indicated as it is behaving as I suggested in the time-frame suggested. Nothing else is a positive yet, but we d
o have signs of reducing strength in the down trend via volume and a flat close on a higher low. The new $1.34 support looks like it will hold.
We started "high", peaking at $1.43 at 9:42, and did the typical grind lower typified by down, flat, down, flat, ... finally bottoming on 11:59's ~2.7K $1.35/6. Then, as is also common, a short recovery up through 12:51 to begin a long flattish low/no-volume $1.36/8 (interrupted by a couple minutes of $1.39 and a few one-minute volume spikes) with most trading being $1.36/7 13:21-14:04 and $1.37/8 14:07 to the close, finishing the day flat on low volume.
Buy percentage struggled, falling from 10:15's 73.61% (only 15.9K traded through then though) to 30.01% through 12:15 (on only 84.1K traded through then). Fortunately, thereafter it was mostly a steady grind higher, hitting 41.35% at 15:30, 39.43% at 15:45 and ending the day with 15:50's 44.62% and 16:00's 44.73%. These are still weak, but it our normal weak range at least (even though it's near the bottom end of our normal weakness).
Net is we got a higher low and lower high and closed below the open - exactly the sort of stuff we could expect as the "catalyst" effects begin to wane (as in "Bruce Wane [sic]"
)
This was on very low volume, quite typical as the catalyst period ends and folks aren't yet confident enough to start making any kind of move. Today was like just "churn" of MMs and a few day-traders.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:14 opened the day with 9:30's 3,100 sell, and another 175, all for $1.40 and b/a went 1.1K:8.1K $1.39/40. Then came 9:42's 1K $1.41->$1.4299 and b/a went 700:4.5K $1.38/41, 9:50's ~2K $1.3999/$1.40 and b/a went 3.8K:1.9K $1.39/40, 9:57's 200 $1.40/2 and b/a went 3.8K:4.7K $1.39/40, and 9:58-10:06's no trades. 10:07-:10's ~2.5K $1.3960/$1.3991 began a very low/no-volume $1.3950/$1.40. At 10:14 b/a was 3.9K:1.9K $1.39/40. 10:14's 100 $1.40 ended the period.
10:15-11:00 began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 on 10:15-17's ~12.3K $1.39/$1.3958. At 10:23 b/a was 3.9K:7K $1.39/40, 10:35 3.8K:5.1K $1.39/40. Price was interrupted by 10:28's 319 $1.40/1 and 10:40's 200 $1.41. 11:00's 100 $1.39 ended the period.
11:01-11:54 began very low/no-volume $1.37/$1.38 on 11:01's 5.3K $1.39->$1.37. At 11:11 b/a was 200:2.3K $1.37/8. 11:54's 200 $1.37 ended the period.
11:55-12:49, after four no-trades minutes, dropped on 11:59's ~2.7K $1.36->$1.35->$1.36 and did a small recovery on 12:02-:03's 200 $1.3550/$1.3599, 12:05-07's ~31.4K $1.3550->$1.36->$1.37->$1.36, and 12:10's ~3.2K $1.3650/$1.3690. That started a very low/no-volume $1.36/7. At 12:19 b/a was 16.9K:9.2K $1.36/7, 12:24 1.7K:4.9K $1.36/7, 12:37 1.8K:4.5K $1.36/7, and 12:45 7.5K:4.2K $1.36/7. Volume was interrupted by 12:22-:23's ~21.2K $1.36/7 and 12:43's 4K $1.3690. 12:49's 200 $1.37 ended the period.
12:50-14:03, after a no-trades minute, did a very low/no-volume intermittent step up on 12:51's 400 $1.37->$1.38, 13:00 b/a was 200:2.8K $1.37/8, and 13:05's 300 $1.38/9 finished the step up and b/a was 8.5K:2.3K $1.36/8. B/a at 13:09 was 10K:2.4K $1.36/8. After 13:06-:21's no-trades, 13:22's 330 $1.3601 moved range back down to begin very low/no-volume $1.3650/7. Volume was interrupted by 13:53's 12K $1.36 and at 14:01 b/a was 10.8K:6.7K $1.36/7. 14:02-:03's 13.3K $1.3650/$1.37 ended the period.
14:04-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-low $1.37/$1.38 on 14:06's 600 $1.38->$1.39 which put b/a to 1.3K:3.1K $1.37/8. At 14:24 b/a was 1.4K:1.8K $1.37/8, 14:32 1K:1.8K $1.37/8, 15:38 3.9K:8.6K $1.37/8. Volume was interrupted by 15:32's 7.4K $1.37/$1.3750. Range stayed right here, $1.37/8, straight into the close with only volume pick-up 15:49 on. 15:58's ~1.3K $1.3750/$1.38 and 16:00's 351 $1.38 closed the day flat.
There was one AH 2K buy for $1.38.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 39,745, 21.18% of day's volume, with a $1.3690 VWAP. Number of larger trades and percentage of volume are in the normal range now. Combined with the very low volume and VWAP less than the day's $1.3722 I suspect MMs took most of the larger trades.
On my minimal chart a higher low and lower high with a flat close and small volume at what I think is the ending of the typical three-day tells me we can start looking for clues about what's next again. It all suggest short-term reduction in downside momentum, also typical at end of the three-day window for catalyst effects to begin dissipating.
Adjusting my trend lines it also looks like the $1.34 support is pretty solid as there's a rising potential support (not yet shown on the posted chart) that has the original at the low of 2/26 and four touches and the fist two resulting in reversals. The last two are yesterday and today and we ought to see a leg up begin off this support. Potential resistance today would come on the rising former support (rising green line) at ~$1.49 today. It rises ~$0.005/day. There's also a new potential falling resistance, not yet shown, that may come into consideration. It's at ~$1.51 today and declines ~$0.019/day.
We confirmed the break below the short-term rising support (rising green line) and, as mentioned above, it will come into play as a rising resistance if we do a good leg up.
The new support line I added yesterday, $1.34, held but we are still "pushing" the lower Bollinger limit downward. That should stop today if the reducing volume and higher low are telling the truth.
Yesterday I said { So in a day or two we should see improvements in both price and buy percentages along with volume beginning to flatten out and then rise. } Well, we got "flatten out" on the close and buy percentage improvement (see below) but we'll need to see the trend continue with some improvement in volume and a rise in range.
On my one-year chart On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs continued dropping, but the 20-day is almost flat, and the 50-day continues falling. The 10 and 20 and 50-day should all continue this unless we begin to rise a bit, which I suspect will begin shortly.
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday, continued that but for RSI, which went flat, and Williams %R, which improved. Going mixed at least suggests the strength downward is abating. Williams %R is oversold and RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic are all close. Everything but accumulation/distribution is below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3742 and $1.6258 ($1.3982 and $1.6387 yesterday) are diverging as the lower limit falls faster than the upper limit. Mid-point is also falling.
All in, I'm encouraged by behavior matching my expectations at the end of the three-day window. That doesn't mean we're headed upward, but it does offer the possibility and does allow the return of confidence as "normal" behavior returns.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and now that I've determined the short percentage needs no adjustment we can see that right inside the top of my desired range, suggesting normalcy is returning. The buy percentage is close to our normal, which is still too low for sustained appreciation.
The spread is also returning to normal but is still a bit too wide to suggest we are reversing trend. I suspect at least one more day before any strong hints of movement upward can appear.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings with fourteen negatives and ten positives (my count yesterday was off 1 in each category), netting a change since 05/09 of $0.0120, 0.88%.
All in, matching expectations is good but I'm suspecting another day or two before we see a solid suggestion of a positive move, if any.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Today was the third day of the Q4/FY-end reporting segment and we started to see the early signs of return to normalcy.
This is indicated as it is behaving as I suggested in the time-frame suggested. Nothing else is a positive yet, but we d
o have signs of reducing strength in the down trend via volume and a flat close on a higher low. The new $1.34 support looks like it will hold.
We started "high", peaking at $1.43 at 9:42, and did the typical grind lower typified by down, flat, down, flat, ... finally bottoming on 11:59's ~2.7K $1.35/6. Then, as is also common, a short recovery up through 12:51 to begin a long flattish low/no-volume $1.36/8 (interrupted by a couple minutes of $1.39 and a few one-minute volume spikes) with most trading being $1.36/7 13:21-14:04 and $1.37/8 14:07 to the close, finishing the day flat on low volume.
Buy percentage struggled, falling from 10:15's 73.61% (only 15.9K traded through then though) to 30.01% through 12:15 (on only 84.1K traded through then). Fortunately, thereafter it was mostly a steady grind higher, hitting 41.35% at 15:30, 39.43% at 15:45 and ending the day with 15:50's 44.62% and 16:00's 44.73%. These are still weak, but it our normal weak range at least (even though it's near the bottom end of our normal weakness).
Net is we got a higher low and lower high and closed below the open - exactly the sort of stuff we could expect as the "catalyst" effects begin to wane (as in "Bruce Wane [sic]"
) This was on very low volume, quite typical as the catalyst period ends and folks aren't yet confident enough to start making any kind of move. Today was like just "churn" of MMs and a few day-traders.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:14 opened the day with 9:30's 3,100 sell, and another 175, all for $1.40 and b/a went 1.1K:8.1K $1.39/40. Then came 9:42's 1K $1.41->$1.4299 and b/a went 700:4.5K $1.38/41, 9:50's ~2K $1.3999/$1.40 and b/a went 3.8K:1.9K $1.39/40, 9:57's 200 $1.40/2 and b/a went 3.8K:4.7K $1.39/40, and 9:58-10:06's no trades. 10:07-:10's ~2.5K $1.3960/$1.3991 began a very low/no-volume $1.3950/$1.40. At 10:14 b/a was 3.9K:1.9K $1.39/40. 10:14's 100 $1.40 ended the period.
10:15-11:00 began very low/no-volume $1.39/40 on 10:15-17's ~12.3K $1.39/$1.3958. At 10:23 b/a was 3.9K:7K $1.39/40, 10:35 3.8K:5.1K $1.39/40. Price was interrupted by 10:28's 319 $1.40/1 and 10:40's 200 $1.41. 11:00's 100 $1.39 ended the period.
11:01-11:54 began very low/no-volume $1.37/$1.38 on 11:01's 5.3K $1.39->$1.37. At 11:11 b/a was 200:2.3K $1.37/8. 11:54's 200 $1.37 ended the period.
11:55-12:49, after four no-trades minutes, dropped on 11:59's ~2.7K $1.36->$1.35->$1.36 and did a small recovery on 12:02-:03's 200 $1.3550/$1.3599, 12:05-07's ~31.4K $1.3550->$1.36->$1.37->$1.36, and 12:10's ~3.2K $1.3650/$1.3690. That started a very low/no-volume $1.36/7. At 12:19 b/a was 16.9K:9.2K $1.36/7, 12:24 1.7K:4.9K $1.36/7, 12:37 1.8K:4.5K $1.36/7, and 12:45 7.5K:4.2K $1.36/7. Volume was interrupted by 12:22-:23's ~21.2K $1.36/7 and 12:43's 4K $1.3690. 12:49's 200 $1.37 ended the period.
12:50-14:03, after a no-trades minute, did a very low/no-volume intermittent step up on 12:51's 400 $1.37->$1.38, 13:00 b/a was 200:2.8K $1.37/8, and 13:05's 300 $1.38/9 finished the step up and b/a was 8.5K:2.3K $1.36/8. B/a at 13:09 was 10K:2.4K $1.36/8. After 13:06-:21's no-trades, 13:22's 330 $1.3601 moved range back down to begin very low/no-volume $1.3650/7. Volume was interrupted by 13:53's 12K $1.36 and at 14:01 b/a was 10.8K:6.7K $1.36/7. 14:02-:03's 13.3K $1.3650/$1.37 ended the period.
14:04-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-low $1.37/$1.38 on 14:06's 600 $1.38->$1.39 which put b/a to 1.3K:3.1K $1.37/8. At 14:24 b/a was 1.4K:1.8K $1.37/8, 14:32 1K:1.8K $1.37/8, 15:38 3.9K:8.6K $1.37/8. Volume was interrupted by 15:32's 7.4K $1.37/$1.3750. Range stayed right here, $1.37/8, straight into the close with only volume pick-up 15:49 on. 15:58's ~1.3K $1.3750/$1.38 and 16:00's 351 $1.38 closed the day flat.
There was one AH 2K buy for $1.38.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 39,745, 21.18% of day's volume, with a $1.3690 VWAP. Number of larger trades and percentage of volume are in the normal range now. Combined with the very low volume and VWAP less than the day's $1.3722 I suspect MMs took most of the larger trades.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:14 9313 $1.3950 $1.4299 $13,046.69 $1.4009 4.96% 71.20%
11:00 14994 $1.3900 $1.4100 $20,908.39 $1.3945 7.99% 55.66% Incl 10:15 $1.3958 6,500 10:17 $1.3901 4,975
11:54 21581 $1.3661 $1.3900 $29,688.33 $1.3757 11.50% 44.04%
12:49 65167 $1.3500 $1.3700 $88,781.66 $1.3624 34.73% 36.92% Incl 12:05 $1.3550 5,000 12:07 $1.3600 6,300
12:22 $1.3600 4,970
14:03 33255 $1.3600 $1.3900 $45,434.54 $1.3662 17.72% 36.82% Incl 13:53 $1.3600 12,000
16:00 38200 $1.3700 $1.3900 $52,560.28 $1.3759 20.36% 44.73%
16:40 2000 $1.3800 $1.3800 $2,760.00 $1.3800 1.07% 44.25%
The only remarkable things about today's movements are the close being flat an the volume and narrowing spread fitting with my three-day window for catalyst effects expiring, Tomorrow we should be able to start relying a bit on conventional TA again and I'll have a bit more confidence in my unconventional stuff too.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -6.04% 0.75% -4.67% 0.00% -76.43%
Prior -1.97% -7.59% -3.85% -7.38% 127.48%
On my minimal chart a higher low and lower high with a flat close and small volume at what I think is the ending of the typical three-day tells me we can start looking for clues about what's next again. It all suggest short-term reduction in downside momentum, also typical at end of the three-day window for catalyst effects to begin dissipating.
Adjusting my trend lines it also looks like the $1.34 support is pretty solid as there's a rising potential support (not yet shown on the posted chart) that has the original at the low of 2/26 and four touches and the fist two resulting in reversals. The last two are yesterday and today and we ought to see a leg up begin off this support. Potential resistance today would come on the rising former support (rising green line) at ~$1.49 today. It rises ~$0.005/day. There's also a new potential falling resistance, not yet shown, that may come into consideration. It's at ~$1.51 today and declines ~$0.019/day.
We confirmed the break below the short-term rising support (rising green line) and, as mentioned above, it will come into play as a rising resistance if we do a good leg up.
The new support line I added yesterday, $1.34, held but we are still "pushing" the lower Bollinger limit downward. That should stop today if the reducing volume and higher low are telling the truth.
Yesterday I said { So in a day or two we should see improvements in both price and buy percentages along with volume beginning to flatten out and then rise. } Well, we got "flatten out" on the close and buy percentage improvement (see below) but we'll need to see the trend continue with some improvement in volume and a rise in range.
On my one-year chart On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs continued dropping, but the 20-day is almost flat, and the 50-day continues falling. The 10 and 20 and 50-day should all continue this unless we begin to rise a bit, which I suspect will begin shortly.
The oscillators I watch, which all weakened yesterday, continued that but for RSI, which went flat, and Williams %R, which improved. Going mixed at least suggests the strength downward is abating. Williams %R is oversold and RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic are all close. Everything but accumulation/distribution is below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3742 and $1.6258 ($1.3982 and $1.6387 yesterday) are diverging as the lower limit falls faster than the upper limit. Mid-point is also falling.
All in, I'm encouraged by behavior matching my expectations at the end of the three-day window. That doesn't mean we're headed upward, but it does offer the possibility and does allow the return of confidence as "normal" behavior returns.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and now that I've determined the short percentage needs no adjustment we can see that right inside the top of my desired range, suggesting normalcy is returning. The buy percentage is close to our normal, which is still too low for sustained appreciation.
The spread is also returning to normal but is still a bit too wide to suggest we are reversing trend. I suspect at least one more day before any strong hints of movement upward can appear.
VWAP has the last twenty-four readings with fourteen negatives and ten positives (my count yesterday was off 1 in each category), netting a change since 05/09 of $0.0120, 0.88%.
All in, matching expectations is good but I'm suspecting another day or two before we see a solid suggestion of a positive move, if any.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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