On another subject......
The below may be obvious to many here and I would just like a check on my values and assumptions from others.
I may be wrong about the specifics (looking for open minded feedback) but I calculate the situation as follows (approximately based on what is published):
Float 171.26 m shares
Institutions 121 m shares (70%)
Insiders 22 m shares (14 %)
The rest 28 m shares (16%)
Of “The rest”, that would be divided between retailers, MM inventory and shares reserved for options. I am assuming that all of the institutions, insiders and retailers (only part of the 28 m shares) published are long and as of last report 29 m shares were short and therefore borrowed from some of the longs.
With this data I am assuming that a very high percentage of the institutions, insiders and retailers are NOT selling at this level and waiting for a BO and/or the pps to increase significantly thus the shorts are in a very, very tough position and it is just a matter of time as right now they are literally stuck in not having (by a very significant margin) enough shares to cover cheaply.
I think what we are seeing everyday at these relatively low volume levels are the shorts, traders and MM’s churning the Bid/Ask in order not to start a “squeeze”. Given that there will be good science/trials news and other developments (Japan, BO,etc), for the shorts, this is an accident waiting to happen.
I would appreciate any ideas, input, opinions or other ways of possibly looking at the current data and how events might impact the pps as we progress. IMHO and thanks.
