Thursday, May 19, 2016 8:53:19 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/18 2016 EOD
In aggregate, I think tomorrow resumes weakening. This decision based much more on my unconventional TA.
Another typical open low, climb to the day's high, 11:01-:07's $1.46, then begin the long slow slog lower hitting $1.42 by 11:17, $1.41 by 11:34, $1.40 (matching low) by 12:28, touch $1.40 again at 13:09, see bids with a big buy imbalance at $1.41 so that we go sideways $1.41/2 ... and all this while buy percentage never went below ~55% until after 14:00 when it tanked big-time, hitting 38.78% by 15:59. One could guess that covering buys were occurring in the early part of the day with the MMs shorting into the buying and then moving price down to do their covering.
The last 15:59 trade was $1.42 and the close was a 227 share buy 2 cents higher at $1.44 to get a close up from yesterday, rather than flat as would have been the case without that closing trade.
Nice save guys & gals! Keep the false positives coming!
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:45 opened the day with a 1,362 sell for $1.40, and did a rise on 9:33's 224 $1.44, 9:36's ~4.6K $1.41/2, 9:40's 200 $1.41/2, 9:41's ~12.1K $1.41/2, 9:42's 200 $1.43, and 9:44-:45's 600 $1.45, which ended the period.
9:46-10:56, after two no-trades minutes, kicked off very low/no-volume $1.43/5 through 10:13, did 10:14-:56's very low/no-volume $1.44/5 (interrupted by 10:29's 1.7K $1.43/4, 10:35's 5.1K $1.45, and 10:46's ~11.3K $1.44/6), and ended the period on 10:56's 100 $1.45.
10:57-11:34, after four no-trades minutes, began stepping lower, after a head-fake, when it did 11:01's 593 $1.45/6, 11:07's 300 $1.45/6, 11:10's 1K $1.46, and did the deed on 11:15-:17's ~2.2K $1.45->$1.44->$1.4201, 11:18-:28's very low/no-volume $1.4399/$1.44, and ended the period with 11:32-:34's ~1.1K $1.43->$1.41.
11:35-12:28, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.42/4 on 11:36's's 400 $1.42/4, did 11:42-12:16's very low/no-volume $1.41/3, 12:17-:27's very low/no-volume $1.41/2, and ended the period on 12:28's 500 $1.4070->$1.40 (matched low).
12:29-15:31, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.42/3 on 12:31's 100 $1.42, did 12:52-15:31 very low/no-volume $1.41/2 (interrupted by 13:30's ~16.4K $1.41/4, 13:55's & 14:01's 158 & 100 $1.44, and 14:06's ~14.2K $1.42/3), and ended the period on 15:31's 621 $1.41/2.
15:32-15:54 began a mostly low-volume $1.4099/$1.41 through 15:47 on 15:32-:33's ~11.7K $1.41->$1.40 (and again big imbalance with b/a ~12K:2.5K $1.40/1). 15:48-15:54 moved to low/no-volume $1.41/2 on 15:47's 10.2K $1.40/1 and ended the period on 15:54's 200 $1.42.
15:55-16:00, after a no-trade minute, did 15:56's $1.41->$1.44->$1.43, 15:57's 1.5K $1.43, 15:58-:59's 763 $1.42/3, and 16:00's 227 buy $1.44 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 79,874, 40.04% of day's volume, with a $1.4192 VWAP. Considering today's reduced volume, both the number of larger trades and the percentage of day's volume are quite high. Note also that the larger trades VWAP is below the day's VWAP (see below) by what is a relatively large margin.
All this seems to lend credence to yesterday's { Setting aside my pessimism, the increase in volume on an up day probably offers enough hope for an up trend to get some folks to support the ATM activities by "buying" shares at elevated levels. }. Note the discussion of early-to-late buy percentages at the top of today's post.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA is flattening, will remain so for one more day if we don't move, and will then do a small rise if we don't move down. The 20-day SMA continues to decline and will do so for a couple weeks if we hold our current range. The 50-day flattened out yesterday and will continue that way for a couple weeks if we hold still in our price range. Price range is very likely to move though.
My longer-term descending resistance is now right atop our price range. As noted before, I don't know if it's a substantial resistance or not as there's been a long time passed since t was last tested (4/14-4/19 during which it held). That trend line is counter to the short-term trend denoted by the minimal chart's rising support/resistance.
The next couple days (well, let's skip Friday as a consideration) should tell the story.
The oscillators I watch, yesterday all improved marginally excepting ADX-related and full stochastic, all improved marginally, again excepting ADX-related and full stochastic which both weakened, and all are below neutral but for momentum, which is exactly neutral at 1.0. Williams %R, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic are near achieving neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3511 and $1.5504 ($1.3430 and $1.5786 yesterday) continue converging but stopped moving towards the limits going parallel. Instead, the upper limit, as is common, is declining faster than the lower limit is rising, moving the mid-point lower. Or range and close is right around the mid-point, giving no suggestion of the most likely next directional move in price.
All in, yesterday's neutral call seems reasonable based on just this stuff although my "experiential inputs" makes me think weakening is most likely near-term.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions again, not a sign of "normal". Short percentage is still above my desired range (needs re-check) even if I removed the Arca adjustment. Buy percentage moved even further below what I think is needed for sustainable appreciation.
The spread narrowed and is not far from being in a "normal" range, so no big negative suggestion there.
VWAP movement now has fourteen negative and six positives in the last twenty readings. The movement today was small enough though to be really considered flat.
All in, nothing positive here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
In aggregate, I think tomorrow resumes weakening. This decision based much more on my unconventional TA.
Another typical open low, climb to the day's high, 11:01-:07's $1.46, then begin the long slow slog lower hitting $1.42 by 11:17, $1.41 by 11:34, $1.40 (matching low) by 12:28, touch $1.40 again at 13:09, see bids with a big buy imbalance at $1.41 so that we go sideways $1.41/2 ... and all this while buy percentage never went below ~55% until after 14:00 when it tanked big-time, hitting 38.78% by 15:59. One could guess that covering buys were occurring in the early part of the day with the MMs shorting into the buying and then moving price down to do their covering.
The last 15:59 trade was $1.42 and the close was a 227 share buy 2 cents higher at $1.44 to get a close up from yesterday, rather than flat as would have been the case without that closing trade.
Nice save guys & gals! Keep the false positives coming!
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:45 opened the day with a 1,362 sell for $1.40, and did a rise on 9:33's 224 $1.44, 9:36's ~4.6K $1.41/2, 9:40's 200 $1.41/2, 9:41's ~12.1K $1.41/2, 9:42's 200 $1.43, and 9:44-:45's 600 $1.45, which ended the period.
9:46-10:56, after two no-trades minutes, kicked off very low/no-volume $1.43/5 through 10:13, did 10:14-:56's very low/no-volume $1.44/5 (interrupted by 10:29's 1.7K $1.43/4, 10:35's 5.1K $1.45, and 10:46's ~11.3K $1.44/6), and ended the period on 10:56's 100 $1.45.
10:57-11:34, after four no-trades minutes, began stepping lower, after a head-fake, when it did 11:01's 593 $1.45/6, 11:07's 300 $1.45/6, 11:10's 1K $1.46, and did the deed on 11:15-:17's ~2.2K $1.45->$1.44->$1.4201, 11:18-:28's very low/no-volume $1.4399/$1.44, and ended the period with 11:32-:34's ~1.1K $1.43->$1.41.
11:35-12:28, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.42/4 on 11:36's's 400 $1.42/4, did 11:42-12:16's very low/no-volume $1.41/3, 12:17-:27's very low/no-volume $1.41/2, and ended the period on 12:28's 500 $1.4070->$1.40 (matched low).
12:29-15:31, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.42/3 on 12:31's 100 $1.42, did 12:52-15:31 very low/no-volume $1.41/2 (interrupted by 13:30's ~16.4K $1.41/4, 13:55's & 14:01's 158 & 100 $1.44, and 14:06's ~14.2K $1.42/3), and ended the period on 15:31's 621 $1.41/2.
15:32-15:54 began a mostly low-volume $1.4099/$1.41 through 15:47 on 15:32-:33's ~11.7K $1.41->$1.40 (and again big imbalance with b/a ~12K:2.5K $1.40/1). 15:48-15:54 moved to low/no-volume $1.41/2 on 15:47's 10.2K $1.40/1 and ended the period on 15:54's 200 $1.42.
15:55-16:00, after a no-trade minute, did 15:56's $1.41->$1.44->$1.43, 15:57's 1.5K $1.43, 15:58-:59's 763 $1.42/3, and 16:00's 227 buy $1.44 ended the period and day.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 79,874, 40.04% of day's volume, with a $1.4192 VWAP. Considering today's reduced volume, both the number of larger trades and the percentage of day's volume are quite high. Note also that the larger trades VWAP is below the day's VWAP (see below) by what is a relatively large margin.
All this seems to lend credence to yesterday's { Setting aside my pessimism, the increase in volume on an up day probably offers enough hope for an up trend to get some folks to support the ATM activities by "buying" shares at elevated levels. }. Note the discussion of early-to-late buy percentages at the top of today's post.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:45 19112 $1.4000 $1.4500 $27,128.68 $1.4195 9.58% 62.36% Incl 09:41 $1.4200 9,120
10:56 43875 $1.4275 $1.4600 $63,446.22 $1.4461 21.99% 58.34% Incl 10:20 $1.4408 5,000 10:35 $1.4485 5,000
10:49 $1.4430 4,900
11:34 6450 $1.4101 $1.4600 $9,295.00 $1.4411 3.23% 55.44%
12:28 6440 $1.4000 $1.4400 $9,151.07 $1.4210 3.23% 55.48%
15:31 83725 $1.4000 $1.4400 $118,670.67 $1.4174 41.97% 40.24% Incl 13:30 $1.4200 5,600 $1.4399 5,600
13:52 $1.4136 4,454 14:06 $1.4200 7,000
14:14 $1.4101 9,000 15:01 $1.4112 6,000
15:54 29500 $1.4000 $1.4200 $41,408.07 $1.4037 14.79% 38.95% Incl 15:33 $1.4000 10,000 15:47 $1.4000 8,200
16:00 7427 $1.4100 $1.4400 $10,596.53 $1.4268 3.72% 38.85%
On my minimal chart, thanks to the close being 2 cents above the last 15:59 trade, the close was above the rising support/resistance (lower rising orange line), which yesterday had just confirmed a break below the support. It's barely above the line and will now need another close above the rising support to confirm a break out. Considering the falling volume, the intra-day behavior and some unconventional stuff, like the VWAP movement and larger trades profile, I don't think this is likely. Add in yesterday's { ... I'm thinking no three-day pop effect is likely since we came back below the line. }. Today didn't fit with any "three-day pop effect" that I can recognize. So I'm leaning even more to thinking tomorrow we don't confirm a break above the support/resistance.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.72% 0.72% -0.68% 1.41% -14.99%
Prior -4.14% 0.72% 0.68% 2.16% 59.71%
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA is flattening, will remain so for one more day if we don't move, and will then do a small rise if we don't move down. The 20-day SMA continues to decline and will do so for a couple weeks if we hold our current range. The 50-day flattened out yesterday and will continue that way for a couple weeks if we hold still in our price range. Price range is very likely to move though.
My longer-term descending resistance is now right atop our price range. As noted before, I don't know if it's a substantial resistance or not as there's been a long time passed since t was last tested (4/14-4/19 during which it held). That trend line is counter to the short-term trend denoted by the minimal chart's rising support/resistance.
The next couple days (well, let's skip Friday as a consideration) should tell the story.
The oscillators I watch, yesterday all improved marginally excepting ADX-related and full stochastic, all improved marginally, again excepting ADX-related and full stochastic which both weakened, and all are below neutral but for momentum, which is exactly neutral at 1.0. Williams %R, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic are near achieving neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3511 and $1.5504 ($1.3430 and $1.5786 yesterday) continue converging but stopped moving towards the limits going parallel. Instead, the upper limit, as is common, is declining faster than the lower limit is rising, moving the mid-point lower. Or range and close is right around the mid-point, giving no suggestion of the most likely next directional move in price.
All in, yesterday's neutral call seems reasonable based on just this stuff although my "experiential inputs" makes me think weakening is most likely near-term.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions again, not a sign of "normal". Short percentage is still above my desired range (needs re-check) even if I removed the Arca adjustment. Buy percentage moved even further below what I think is needed for sustainable appreciation.
The spread narrowed and is not far from being in a "normal" range, so no big negative suggestion there.
VWAP movement now has fourteen negative and six positives in the last twenty readings. The movement today was small enough though to be really considered flat.
All in, nothing positive here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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