Saturday, May 14, 2016 2:45:36 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/13 2016 EOD
I remain negative on the near-term outlook although the very low volume could be suggesting an end to the down trend. But today was Friday, which often has low volume, so we can't assign much weight to that.
Also, since low volume is an ideal environment for those who can push price up and they didn't do it, I think that's a negative too. However it could be they just decided to take Friday off.
Think of today's intra-day pattern as a big "S" laid over on it's side and then flipped vertically. I think it just represents MMs taking advantage by making early highs, through around 11:30ish, and then taking profits as they covered at lower prices.
If that was the case, we could see price supported tomorrow for a little bit - maybe early hours again - and then after the MMs have sold they step aside and let price sag lower.
Today began low, $1.41, and dropped to $1.35 by 9:33, popped up on low/no-volume to $1.40/1 again by 9:51, went low/no-volume there through 10:43, dropped on medium/low-volume to $1.39 by 10:46, climbed on mostly low/no-volume to $1.44 by 11:37, and began a long very low/no-volume fall to $1.37 by 14:21. Then after low-volume $1.37/8 through 14:48, a step back up to $1.38/9 was followed by very low/no-volume there, with a one-minute ~3.7K $1.39/$1.40, through 15:30. 15:39-15:59 moved to $1.41 by 15:33, dropped to $1.38 by 15:57, did $1.38 15:59-:59 and closed up four cents on a 325 buy at $1.42.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:01 opened the day with a 1,063 sell for $1.41, plus another 28 at that price, and then did 9:33's ~17.2K $.40->$1.35, began stepping up on 9:35's 700 $1.35/7, then 9:37's 100 $1.3650, 9:38's 2K $1.3904, 9:40's 825 $$1.3920/$1.40, 9:42's 500 $1.39, 9:43-:49's no trades, 9:50-:51's 455 $1.40->$1.4099, 9:53's ~1.3K $1.4099, 9:54-:59's no trades, and 10:00-:01's ~2.6K $1.39->$1.41 ended the period.
10:02-10:42, after three no-trades minutes, began a very low/no-volume $1.40/1 on 10:05's 2.7K $1.40/1 and ended the period on 10:42's 160 $1.41.
10:43-11:06 began a very low/no-volume $1.39/$1.40 after first dropping lower on 10:43-45's ~15K $1.40->$1.39 and 10:47's 166 $1.38. Price then recovered on 10:51's 900 $1.38->$1.40 to do 10:52-11:06's low/no-volume $1.39/40 and end the period on 11:06's 500 $1.40.
11:07-11:37 began a small series of steps up on 11:07-:08's 2.7K $1.4067->$1.41, 11:11's 3.4K $1.40/1, and temporarily topped on 11:14's 600 $1.42/3. After doing 11:16's 500 $1.42/3, 11:17-:37 did very low/no-volume $1.41/3 and then peaked on 11:37's 100 $1.44 to end the period.
11:38-12:17 began with 11:38-:45's no trades, stepped down on 11:46's 300 $1.44->$1.4250 and 11:48's 403 $1.41. Then it did 11:49's 200 $1.42, 12:02's 100 $1.4250, and 12:07's 200 $1.43. It's looking to me like someone is trying to create some upward action again. I guess it worked, short-term, as 12:14 did ~5.7K $1.42/$1.4250. Then came 12:17's 100 $1.43 to end the period.
12:18-12:55, after nine no-trades minutes, began a halting very low/no-volume decline on 12:27's 300 $1.41, hit 12:39's 2K $1.4042, 12:47's 900 $1.40/$1.4050, and 12:55's 100 $1.3913 to end the period.
12:56-13:50, after a no-trade minute, began a very low/no-volume $1.39/$1.41 (mostly $1.40/1) on 12:57's 100 $1.41. 13:28 began mostly $1.39/40 and ended on 13:50's 12.5K $1.39/$1.3950.
13:51-14:20 began variable-volume $1.38/9 with 13:51's 364 $1.38 and ended on 14:20's ~11.8K $1.3750/$1.39.
14:21-15:23 did a small weak move upward on 14:21's ~8K $1.37->$1.38, did 14:22-:48's low/no-volume $1.37/8 (mostly $1.37), stepped up on 14:49's ~2.6K to $1.38/9, did 14:50-15:10's low/no-volume there (mostly $1.39), did 15:11's ~3.7K $1.39->$1.40, did 15:12-15:23's very low/no-volume $1.39/40 (mostly $1.39) and ended on 15:23's ~1K $1.39.
15:24-16:00, after five no-trades minutes, kicked of some EOD volatility with 15:28-:29's ~800 $1.38->$1.39, 15:30-:33's ~5.1K $1.49->$1.40->$1.41, did 15:34-:41's low-volume $1.40/1, 15:42-:55's low-volume $1.39/$1.40, 15:56-:59's ~6.8K $1.38/9, and ended on a closing 304 buy for $1.42, up 4 cents from 15:59's closing $1.38. ...
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 52,009, 26.92% of day's volume, with a $1.3803 VWAP.
The market picked option # 1 - we broke below it on very low, and substantially lower, volume. Interestingly, Thursday's close and today's open and close are all right on the line, within the limits of precision available. Keep in mind the closing trade was well above 15:59 $1.38 close by four cents - quite a gap. Without that gap we would have closed well below the line. If tomorrow closes below we will have a confirmed break down.
ATM I expect that to be the case, but maybe something below will change my mind?
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs continue to decline and the 20-day will accelerate it's decline significantly over the next three days unless we get the start of a move up in price range. Similarly, sans a rise in price range, the 50-day will start to flatten over the next three days.
The long-term descending resistance creeps ever closer, today being ~$1.60ish. As mentioned, if we do challenge it I don't have any idea how strong a resistance it might be.
The oscillators I watch, which had mixed movements yesterday, continued in that mode with weakening in full stochastic, accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. All very small moves and all but full stochastic still below neutral but not oversold. The others had very marginal improvements, likely due to the low volume, and are also below neutral and not oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3136 and $1.6956 ($1.3209 and $1.7268 yesterday) continue converging with the mid-point falling as the upper limit falls faster than the lower limit rises.
All in, only the lower volume offers hope of stopping the descent. The phony close, giving a false green candle, should be discounted IMO. If this is done, we closed below the rising support of my minimal chart and I do expect we will confirm tomorrow when the support should be ~$1.43ish.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting some normalcy. Short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) but keep in mind my adjustment may be erroneous - I've started checking to see if NYSE Arca is reporting through FINRA's facility but don't have enough data yet to tell for sure. Early indications are they may be reporting there.
Unfortunately, the buy percentage continues moving further from what's needed for sustainable appreciation. Worse, maybe, is that the buy percentage intra-day peaked at 11:45 and trended mostly lower the rest of the day, leaving the day bereft of any positive signals other than the phony closing price.
The spread narrowed but remains too wide to suggest any stability near-term. The only good thing about it was it was produced with a low open and a high around 11:30. The bad thing was the high was around 11:30 and never even approached as the rest of the day was down and flattish and we had very low volume, both intra-day and for the day, which would have been an ideal situation for "those who can" to push the price up. They did not do so. Without their support I don't see much chance of near-term upward movement.
VWAP movement now has thirteen negative and five positives in the last eighteen readings.
All in, nothing here is short-term positive, other than the daily short percentage being near normal territory and the low volume, which would suggest reducing downward pressure in conventional TA. In my unconventional TA, combined with everything else, it just means the movers weren't interested today.
Being a Friday may be the reason though.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
I remain negative on the near-term outlook although the very low volume could be suggesting an end to the down trend. But today was Friday, which often has low volume, so we can't assign much weight to that.
Also, since low volume is an ideal environment for those who can push price up and they didn't do it, I think that's a negative too. However it could be they just decided to take Friday off.
Think of today's intra-day pattern as a big "S" laid over on it's side and then flipped vertically. I think it just represents MMs taking advantage by making early highs, through around 11:30ish, and then taking profits as they covered at lower prices.
If that was the case, we could see price supported tomorrow for a little bit - maybe early hours again - and then after the MMs have sold they step aside and let price sag lower.
Today began low, $1.41, and dropped to $1.35 by 9:33, popped up on low/no-volume to $1.40/1 again by 9:51, went low/no-volume there through 10:43, dropped on medium/low-volume to $1.39 by 10:46, climbed on mostly low/no-volume to $1.44 by 11:37, and began a long very low/no-volume fall to $1.37 by 14:21. Then after low-volume $1.37/8 through 14:48, a step back up to $1.38/9 was followed by very low/no-volume there, with a one-minute ~3.7K $1.39/$1.40, through 15:30. 15:39-15:59 moved to $1.41 by 15:33, dropped to $1.38 by 15:57, did $1.38 15:59-:59 and closed up four cents on a 325 buy at $1.42.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:01 opened the day with a 1,063 sell for $1.41, plus another 28 at that price, and then did 9:33's ~17.2K $.40->$1.35, began stepping up on 9:35's 700 $1.35/7, then 9:37's 100 $1.3650, 9:38's 2K $1.3904, 9:40's 825 $$1.3920/$1.40, 9:42's 500 $1.39, 9:43-:49's no trades, 9:50-:51's 455 $1.40->$1.4099, 9:53's ~1.3K $1.4099, 9:54-:59's no trades, and 10:00-:01's ~2.6K $1.39->$1.41 ended the period.
10:02-10:42, after three no-trades minutes, began a very low/no-volume $1.40/1 on 10:05's 2.7K $1.40/1 and ended the period on 10:42's 160 $1.41.
10:43-11:06 began a very low/no-volume $1.39/$1.40 after first dropping lower on 10:43-45's ~15K $1.40->$1.39 and 10:47's 166 $1.38. Price then recovered on 10:51's 900 $1.38->$1.40 to do 10:52-11:06's low/no-volume $1.39/40 and end the period on 11:06's 500 $1.40.
11:07-11:37 began a small series of steps up on 11:07-:08's 2.7K $1.4067->$1.41, 11:11's 3.4K $1.40/1, and temporarily topped on 11:14's 600 $1.42/3. After doing 11:16's 500 $1.42/3, 11:17-:37 did very low/no-volume $1.41/3 and then peaked on 11:37's 100 $1.44 to end the period.
11:38-12:17 began with 11:38-:45's no trades, stepped down on 11:46's 300 $1.44->$1.4250 and 11:48's 403 $1.41. Then it did 11:49's 200 $1.42, 12:02's 100 $1.4250, and 12:07's 200 $1.43. It's looking to me like someone is trying to create some upward action again. I guess it worked, short-term, as 12:14 did ~5.7K $1.42/$1.4250. Then came 12:17's 100 $1.43 to end the period.
12:18-12:55, after nine no-trades minutes, began a halting very low/no-volume decline on 12:27's 300 $1.41, hit 12:39's 2K $1.4042, 12:47's 900 $1.40/$1.4050, and 12:55's 100 $1.3913 to end the period.
12:56-13:50, after a no-trade minute, began a very low/no-volume $1.39/$1.41 (mostly $1.40/1) on 12:57's 100 $1.41. 13:28 began mostly $1.39/40 and ended on 13:50's 12.5K $1.39/$1.3950.
13:51-14:20 began variable-volume $1.38/9 with 13:51's 364 $1.38 and ended on 14:20's ~11.8K $1.3750/$1.39.
14:21-15:23 did a small weak move upward on 14:21's ~8K $1.37->$1.38, did 14:22-:48's low/no-volume $1.37/8 (mostly $1.37), stepped up on 14:49's ~2.6K to $1.38/9, did 14:50-15:10's low/no-volume there (mostly $1.39), did 15:11's ~3.7K $1.39->$1.40, did 15:12-15:23's very low/no-volume $1.39/40 (mostly $1.39) and ended on 15:23's ~1K $1.39.
15:24-16:00, after five no-trades minutes, kicked of some EOD volatility with 15:28-:29's ~800 $1.38->$1.39, 15:30-:33's ~5.1K $1.49->$1.40->$1.41, did 15:34-:41's low-volume $1.40/1, 15:42-:55's low-volume $1.39/$1.40, 15:56-:59's ~6.8K $1.38/9, and ended on a closing 304 buy for $1.42, up 4 cents from 15:59's closing $1.38. ...
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 52,009, 26.92% of day's volume, with a $1.3803 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:01 26638 $1.3500 $1.4100 $36,643.70 $1.3756 13.79% 39.78% Incl 09:33 $1.3500 4,100 7,000
10:42 6150 $1.4000 $1.4100 $8,632.94 $1.4037 3.18% 39.60%
11:06 24153 $1.3800 $1.4050 $33,716.47 $1.3960 12.50% 39.80% Incl 10:44 $1.3992 5,000 11:05 $1.4000 6,360
11:37 9100 $1.4000 $1.4400 $12,859.11 $1.4131 4.71% 41.45%
12:17 7000 $1.4100 $1.4400 $9,951.76 $1.4217 3.62% 38.20%
12:55 5900 $1.3913 $1.4200 $8,293.83 $1.4057 3.05% 38.37%
13:50 21065 $1.3900 $1.4100 $29,365.97 $1.3941 10.90% 36.01% Incl 13:50 $1.3900 9,249
14:20 35255 $1.3750 $1.4000 $48,713.67 $1.3818 18.25% 33.22% Incl 14:00 $1.3801 8,000 14:06 $1.3860 5,200
14:20 $1.3800 7,100
15:23 33757 $1.3700 $1.4000 $46,583.27 $1.3800 17.47% 38.21%
16:00 20237 $1.3800 $1.4200 $28,196.74 $1.3933 10.48% 38.25%
On my minimal chart I noted yesterday the rising support (bottom rising orange line) appeared to be strong support/resistance based on the number of recent days it had been challenged, as support, and held. Yesterday's close was right on it too. I noted { Today was the challenge and if my guess was correct we should break below it tomorrow ... Except tomorrow is Friday and they often have low volume and flattish behavior, so maybe we won't challenge and break down then. Even if we do we need a confirmation the following day ... History would suggest downward but $CPST seems to have become quite adroit at releasing PRs that move price up in a timely fashion. Don't know how long they can keep it up though. }__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -7.84% -4.26% -7.10% 0.71% -43.75%
Prior 0.66% -3.42% 0.65% -7.84% -26.53%
The market picked option # 1 - we broke below it on very low, and substantially lower, volume. Interestingly, Thursday's close and today's open and close are all right on the line, within the limits of precision available. Keep in mind the closing trade was well above 15:59 $1.38 close by four cents - quite a gap. Without that gap we would have closed well below the line. If tomorrow closes below we will have a confirmed break down.
ATM I expect that to be the case, but maybe something below will change my mind?
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs continue to decline and the 20-day will accelerate it's decline significantly over the next three days unless we get the start of a move up in price range. Similarly, sans a rise in price range, the 50-day will start to flatten over the next three days.
The long-term descending resistance creeps ever closer, today being ~$1.60ish. As mentioned, if we do challenge it I don't have any idea how strong a resistance it might be.
The oscillators I watch, which had mixed movements yesterday, continued in that mode with weakening in full stochastic, accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. All very small moves and all but full stochastic still below neutral but not oversold. The others had very marginal improvements, likely due to the low volume, and are also below neutral and not oversold.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3136 and $1.6956 ($1.3209 and $1.7268 yesterday) continue converging with the mid-point falling as the upper limit falls faster than the lower limit rises.
All in, only the lower volume offers hope of stopping the descent. The phony close, giving a false green candle, should be discounted IMO. If this is done, we closed below the rising support of my minimal chart and I do expect we will confirm tomorrow when the support should be ~$1.43ish.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting some normalcy. Short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) but keep in mind my adjustment may be erroneous - I've started checking to see if NYSE Arca is reporting through FINRA's facility but don't have enough data yet to tell for sure. Early indications are they may be reporting there.
Unfortunately, the buy percentage continues moving further from what's needed for sustainable appreciation. Worse, maybe, is that the buy percentage intra-day peaked at 11:45 and trended mostly lower the rest of the day, leaving the day bereft of any positive signals other than the phony closing price.
The spread narrowed but remains too wide to suggest any stability near-term. The only good thing about it was it was produced with a low open and a high around 11:30. The bad thing was the high was around 11:30 and never even approached as the rest of the day was down and flattish and we had very low volume, both intra-day and for the day, which would have been an ideal situation for "those who can" to push the price up. They did not do so. Without their support I don't see much chance of near-term upward movement.
VWAP movement now has thirteen negative and five positives in the last eighteen readings.
All in, nothing here is short-term positive, other than the daily short percentage being near normal territory and the low volume, which would suggest reducing downward pressure in conventional TA. In my unconventional TA, combined with everything else, it just means the movers weren't interested today.
Being a Friday may be the reason though.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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