Friday, May 13, 2016 9:14:04 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/12 2016 EOD
Negative near-term unless tomorrow being Friday gets us a low-volume flattish day.
Today was an open high, $1.53, go very low/no-volume higher, $1.55 by 10:04, and tank through 11:09, going to $1.41. Then a typical re-trace, only as high as $1.46 by 11:46, was followed by a drop from there 12:13-:16 to $1.43 to set the stage for the rest of the day's action - predominately low/no-volume: $1.42/4 through 13:08; $1.44/5 through 13:38; mostly $1.42/4, up and down a penny at various times, through the rest of the day, and close at $1.41.
I commented at the time (noted below) that I thought we had careful short covering occurring and it seemed to be backed up by volume and price behavior combined with buy percentages. If not for this, if that was happening, we could have gone much lower I think.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:06 opened the day with a 3,289 buy for $1.53, did 9:31's ~3.8K $1.53/4, 9:32-9:40's no trades, 9:41's 408 $1.53, 9:42-:46's no trades, 9:47's~2.7K $1.5277, 9:51-:55's ~2.3K $1.53/4, 9:56-10:03's no trades, and 10:04-:06's ~3.1K $1.5499->$1.53->$1.55->$1.54.
10:07-10:48 began a rapid sag with 10:07-:10's no trades, 10:11's ~700 and 10:14's 300 $1.52, and 10:18-:23's ~11.9K $1.52->$1.51->$1.50 to end this leg of the fall. Then came 10:25's ~12.6K $1.50/1, 10:26-:28's ~2.2K $1.52->$1.51, 10:30's ~8.6K $1.50, 10:31's 200 $1.50/1.
The next leg of the fall came on 10:32's ~13.7K $1.50->$1.49, 10:34-:35's ~3.1K $1.49->$1.50, 10:37's 10K $1.47, 10:39's 100 $1.48, 10:42's 200 $1.4674, 10:44's ~5.3K $1.47->$1.46, and 10:48's 200 $1.4599->$1.45 ended this leg down.
10:49-11:03's mostly no, some low, volume $1.45/6 was a brief stable period before the next move down.
11:04-11:41 began the next leg down with 11:04's 20.4K $1.45->$1.46->$1.42, 11:06-:08's $~12.5K $1.43->$1.42, 11:09's ~2.2K $1.4150/$1.42, 11:10-:40's low/medium-volume $1.41/3, and 11:41's ~2.7K $1.42/$1.4299 ended the period.
11:42-12:09 did a re-trace up beginning on 11:42's 10.2K $1.42->$1.44, hit 11:43's 700 $1.43, 11:44's ~2.5K $1.44, and peaked on 11:46's 2K $1.4599. A stable mostly no, some low, volume $1.4550/$1.46 began on 11:47-:56's no trades, did 11:57-12:09's very low/no-volume, and ended the period on 12:09's 100 $1.46.
12:10-14:35, after a no-trades three minutes, did a step down on 12:13's ~460 $1.44/$1.4420, 12:16's ~9.1K $1.4450->$1.43, and 12:17's 100 $1.42. Then began what looks like, in retrospect supported by intra-day buy percentage changes, a very long, careful short covering on mostly no, some low, volume $1.43/5, mostly varying between periods of $1.43/4 to periods of $1.44/5. A couple minutes interrupted with touches of $1.42. 14:35's 900 $1.43 ended the period.
14:36-15:44, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.42/3, on 14:37's ~1.9K $1.42, and ended the period on 15:44's 530 $1.42/3. The pattern was interrupted by 14:49's 927 $1.41/2, 14:56's 238 $1.44, 15:06-:09s ~15K $1.42/3, 15:22's ~12.6K $1.42 and 15:34's 6.2K $1.42/3.
15:45-16:00 began the normal EOD volatility by doing 15:45-:48's ~500 $1.44, 15:49-15:58's ~4.8K $1.$1.42/4, 15:59's ~19.4K $1.42/4 and end the period and day with a 1,746 sell for $1.41, at the intra-day low.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 14 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 93,958, 27.36% of day's volume, with a $1.4494 VWAP.
I had also suggested the rising support (rising orange line) might be strong and that appears to be the case too. We challenged it four of the last five days, closed below once but couldn't confirm as all other days closed at, today, or above the line.
Yesterday I said { It's been challenged three of the last four days and if we challenge it again I think the repeated assaults will finally break below it. The key, I think, is to stay away from it. } Well, we didn't stay away from it - hit several times intra-day as well as closed on it - and we closed right on it. Today was the challenge and if my guess was correct we should break below it tomorrow ... Except tomorrow is Friday and they often have low volume and flattish behavior, so maybe we won't challenge and break down then. Even if we do we need a confirmation the following day.
With the spread between the lines contracting rapidly we can expect an increasing likelihood of a sharp break one way or the other. History would suggest downward but $CPST seems to have become quite adroit at releasing PRs that move price up in a timely fashion. Don't know how long they can keep it up though.
With a high open and higher high, lower low and very low close on only marginally reduced volume, I'm thinking the indications are not good for near-term strength to appear though.
About the head and shoulders pattern, I'm beginning to have my doubts. Just not enough symmetry and I would have wanted to see a slightly higher shoulder before returning to the neckline. It's not completely off the table, just developing in a way that I begin to doubt it's likelihood.
On my one-year chart the long-term descending resistance creeps ever closer, today being ~$1.67ish. This can be expected to provide some resistance if either price rises to challenge it or the line descends to price range. I can't judge how strong as there's relatively few tests of it over a long period. Further, the older tests had relatively small volume and only the recent PR-induced pops had much volume. In both real tests then the line held and that would suggest it will be strong resistance.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline and has now begun to accelerate lower. The 20-day SMA decline which began three days back continues and now is definitely accelerating.
The 50-day SMA rate of rise is decreasing. Due today's close, the rise is now on track to continue for only a couple more days.
The oscillators I watch, which all improved yesterday but for ADX-related, had marginal improvement for MFI, accumulation/distribution, and full stochastic. Everything else weakened and everything is below neutral but full stochastic.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3209 and $1.7268 ($1.3385 and $1.7492 yesterday) converged only slightly a the lower limit decline has picked up pace. Mid-point is moving lower and our high was right around the midpoint while most of the day and the close were below it.
All in, the above combined with my "PR Pop" three-day cycle ending makes me not positive near-term. But tomorrow being Friday I wouldn't be surprised if we got a low-volume flattish day.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and short percentage is way above my desired range (needs re-check), hitting the levels seen 5/2-5/5 when we had several days of lower VWAP.
The spread widened, is quite wide, occurs in a down trend now and is not good. Tomorrow being Friday may save us from a move lower, but this stuff suggests not.
Yesterday I noted { VWAP movement added another positive to our trend, giving us now eleven negative moves in the last fifteen readings, meaning our positives went from four to five. Just based on history, this trend is likely to end. } The trend may be ending as today was down ~4.4%, giving us now twelve negative and five positives in the last sixteen readings.
All in, "no good this way comes".
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Negative near-term unless tomorrow being Friday gets us a low-volume flattish day.
Today was an open high, $1.53, go very low/no-volume higher, $1.55 by 10:04, and tank through 11:09, going to $1.41. Then a typical re-trace, only as high as $1.46 by 11:46, was followed by a drop from there 12:13-:16 to $1.43 to set the stage for the rest of the day's action - predominately low/no-volume: $1.42/4 through 13:08; $1.44/5 through 13:38; mostly $1.42/4, up and down a penny at various times, through the rest of the day, and close at $1.41.
I commented at the time (noted below) that I thought we had careful short covering occurring and it seemed to be backed up by volume and price behavior combined with buy percentages. If not for this, if that was happening, we could have gone much lower I think.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:06 opened the day with a 3,289 buy for $1.53, did 9:31's ~3.8K $1.53/4, 9:32-9:40's no trades, 9:41's 408 $1.53, 9:42-:46's no trades, 9:47's~2.7K $1.5277, 9:51-:55's ~2.3K $1.53/4, 9:56-10:03's no trades, and 10:04-:06's ~3.1K $1.5499->$1.53->$1.55->$1.54.
10:07-10:48 began a rapid sag with 10:07-:10's no trades, 10:11's ~700 and 10:14's 300 $1.52, and 10:18-:23's ~11.9K $1.52->$1.51->$1.50 to end this leg of the fall. Then came 10:25's ~12.6K $1.50/1, 10:26-:28's ~2.2K $1.52->$1.51, 10:30's ~8.6K $1.50, 10:31's 200 $1.50/1.
The next leg of the fall came on 10:32's ~13.7K $1.50->$1.49, 10:34-:35's ~3.1K $1.49->$1.50, 10:37's 10K $1.47, 10:39's 100 $1.48, 10:42's 200 $1.4674, 10:44's ~5.3K $1.47->$1.46, and 10:48's 200 $1.4599->$1.45 ended this leg down.
10:49-11:03's mostly no, some low, volume $1.45/6 was a brief stable period before the next move down.
11:04-11:41 began the next leg down with 11:04's 20.4K $1.45->$1.46->$1.42, 11:06-:08's $~12.5K $1.43->$1.42, 11:09's ~2.2K $1.4150/$1.42, 11:10-:40's low/medium-volume $1.41/3, and 11:41's ~2.7K $1.42/$1.4299 ended the period.
11:42-12:09 did a re-trace up beginning on 11:42's 10.2K $1.42->$1.44, hit 11:43's 700 $1.43, 11:44's ~2.5K $1.44, and peaked on 11:46's 2K $1.4599. A stable mostly no, some low, volume $1.4550/$1.46 began on 11:47-:56's no trades, did 11:57-12:09's very low/no-volume, and ended the period on 12:09's 100 $1.46.
12:10-14:35, after a no-trades three minutes, did a step down on 12:13's ~460 $1.44/$1.4420, 12:16's ~9.1K $1.4450->$1.43, and 12:17's 100 $1.42. Then began what looks like, in retrospect supported by intra-day buy percentage changes, a very long, careful short covering on mostly no, some low, volume $1.43/5, mostly varying between periods of $1.43/4 to periods of $1.44/5. A couple minutes interrupted with touches of $1.42. 14:35's 900 $1.43 ended the period.
14:36-15:44, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.42/3, on 14:37's ~1.9K $1.42, and ended the period on 15:44's 530 $1.42/3. The pattern was interrupted by 14:49's 927 $1.41/2, 14:56's 238 $1.44, 15:06-:09s ~15K $1.42/3, 15:22's ~12.6K $1.42 and 15:34's 6.2K $1.42/3.
15:45-16:00 began the normal EOD volatility by doing 15:45-:48's ~500 $1.44, 15:49-15:58's ~4.8K $1.$1.42/4, 15:59's ~19.4K $1.42/4 and end the period and day with a 1,746 sell for $1.41, at the intra-day low.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 14 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 93,958, 27.36% of day's volume, with a $1.4494 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:06 15440 $1.5277 $1.5500 $23,692.85 $1.5345 4.50% 91.44%
10:48 69021 $1.4500 $1.5240 $103,189.51 $1.4950 20.10% 34.65% Incl 10:19 $1.5130 5,000 10:25 $1.5000 8,300
10:32 $1.5000 8,500 10:37 $1.4700 5,397
11:03 10888 $1.4500 $1.4600 $15,817.58 $1.4528 3.17% 33.44%
11:41 78071 $1.4100 $1.4550 $111,125.39 $1.4234 22.73% 39.81% Incl 11:04 $1.4200 11,900 $1.4500 4,900
12:09 17485 $1.4250 $1.4600 $25,187.45 $1.4405 5.09% 41.39% Incl 11:18 $1.4156 5,000 11:38 $1.4158 5,000
11:42 $1.4400 5,500
14:35 71456 $1.4200 $1.4500 $102,534.90 $1.4349 20.81% 42.70% Incl 12:16 $1.4400 4,033 13:57 $1.4299 6,000
14:30 $1.4300 6,367
15:44 49815 $1.4100 $1.4400 $70,933.42 $1.4239 14.51% 42.42% Incl 15:08 $1.4299 9,000
16:00 25919 $1.4100 $1.4450 $37,222.62 $1.4361 7.55% 40.22% Incl 15:59 $1.4400 9,061
On my minimal chart, right on schedule with my three-day "pop cycle" anticipation, we weakened a bit (based on the close and most of the intra-day price range) even though we topped two pennies above the $1.53 resistance (upper red line). We closed well below it. It has exhibited the strong resistance I thought would appear and four of the last six days have topped at $1.54/5 and then closed at or below $1.53.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.66% -3.42% 0.65% -7.84% -26.53%
Prior -4.14% 5.30% 6.21% 5.80% 25.27%
I had also suggested the rising support (rising orange line) might be strong and that appears to be the case too. We challenged it four of the last five days, closed below once but couldn't confirm as all other days closed at, today, or above the line.
Yesterday I said { It's been challenged three of the last four days and if we challenge it again I think the repeated assaults will finally break below it. The key, I think, is to stay away from it. } Well, we didn't stay away from it - hit several times intra-day as well as closed on it - and we closed right on it. Today was the challenge and if my guess was correct we should break below it tomorrow ... Except tomorrow is Friday and they often have low volume and flattish behavior, so maybe we won't challenge and break down then. Even if we do we need a confirmation the following day.
With the spread between the lines contracting rapidly we can expect an increasing likelihood of a sharp break one way or the other. History would suggest downward but $CPST seems to have become quite adroit at releasing PRs that move price up in a timely fashion. Don't know how long they can keep it up though.
With a high open and higher high, lower low and very low close on only marginally reduced volume, I'm thinking the indications are not good for near-term strength to appear though.
About the head and shoulders pattern, I'm beginning to have my doubts. Just not enough symmetry and I would have wanted to see a slightly higher shoulder before returning to the neckline. It's not completely off the table, just developing in a way that I begin to doubt it's likelihood.
On my one-year chart the long-term descending resistance creeps ever closer, today being ~$1.67ish. This can be expected to provide some resistance if either price rises to challenge it or the line descends to price range. I can't judge how strong as there's relatively few tests of it over a long period. Further, the older tests had relatively small volume and only the recent PR-induced pops had much volume. In both real tests then the line held and that would suggest it will be strong resistance.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to decline and has now begun to accelerate lower. The 20-day SMA decline which began three days back continues and now is definitely accelerating.
The 50-day SMA rate of rise is decreasing. Due today's close, the rise is now on track to continue for only a couple more days.
The oscillators I watch, which all improved yesterday but for ADX-related, had marginal improvement for MFI, accumulation/distribution, and full stochastic. Everything else weakened and everything is below neutral but full stochastic.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3209 and $1.7268 ($1.3385 and $1.7492 yesterday) converged only slightly a the lower limit decline has picked up pace. Mid-point is moving lower and our high was right around the midpoint while most of the day and the close were below it.
All in, the above combined with my "PR Pop" three-day cycle ending makes me not positive near-term. But tomorrow being Friday I wouldn't be surprised if we got a low-volume flattish day.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and short percentage is way above my desired range (needs re-check), hitting the levels seen 5/2-5/5 when we had several days of lower VWAP.
The spread widened, is quite wide, occurs in a down trend now and is not good. Tomorrow being Friday may save us from a move lower, but this stuff suggests not.
Yesterday I noted { VWAP movement added another positive to our trend, giving us now eleven negative moves in the last fifteen readings, meaning our positives went from four to five. Just based on history, this trend is likely to end. } The trend may be ending as today was down ~4.4%, giving us now twelve negative and five positives in the last sixteen readings.
All in, "no good this way comes".
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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