Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/28 2016 EOD

An early open low and jump up was followed by a long flattish period before a big jump up, thanks to the 14:21-ending period (see below), tried to break above the resistance at $1.67-$1.70 (minimal chart's orange line) and failed to hold. By 15:13 range was back below the resistance and we closed at $1.69, right in the resistance area.

I remain negative near-term.

There was one pre-market 50 share sell for $1.64.

09:30-12:24 opened the day with a 12,330 sell for $1.66, did 9:31's 990 $1.66, 9:32's ~3.6K $1.67, 9:33-9:39's no trades, 9:40's 6K $1.66, 9:41-12:24 started a very long flattish, mostly very low/no-volume, $1.67/9 on 9:41's 1.9K $1.68/9. Interruptions occurred on 10:06-:09's ~30.4K $1.68/9->$1.67, 11:44's 6.1K $1.67/8, and the period ended on 12:24's 1.5K $1.67.

12:25-13:56 did similar, but with a shorter time-span and at a narrowed range, began with 12:25's 15K $1.67->$1.69 and went mostly no/low-volume there. Interruptions occurred on 13:23 ~10.9K $1.68/9 and 13:26's ~1.2K $1.69/$1.70. The period ended on 13:56's 100 $1.69.

N.B. Through that trade the total volume, less some odd lot trades <= ~2K shares, was ~146K, ~27.4% of day's volume. Watch what happens next!.

13:57-14:21 began a very high-volume 24 minutes on 13:57's 7.3K $1.69-$1.70 and traded the rest of the period $1.70/4 on a total for the period of ~214.6K, ~40.3% of day's volume, and a whole period VWAP of ~1.7273.

14:22-15:11 began a very low/no-volume $1.70/2 with 14:22's 100 $1.72, interrupted by 14:57's 4K $1.70/1 and ended on 15:11's $1.71/2.

15:12-15:25 began quickly stepping down with 15:12's ~9.1K $1.71->$1.69 (initially on low volume and switching to high volume at 15:22), hit $1.68 on 15:18's 670, $1.65 on 15:21-:22's ~19.4K, $1.64 on 15:24's ~13.7K $1.66->$1.64, and $1.63 on 15:25's ~17.4K to end the period.

15:26-15:40 began quickly stepping up, initially on low volume and going to medium/high volume the last two minutes, hitting $1.67 on 15:30's 900 $1.65-$1.67, dropped back to $1.65 by 15:33 on low volume, did $1.64->$1.67 again on 15:34's ~19.4K, did $1.66->$1.69 on 1:37's 1.2K, and did 15:39-:40's 15.5K $1.66->$1.70->$1.68 to end the period.

15:41-16:00 did low volume through 15:50, and then medium volume, sideways $1.66/9 and ended the period and day on 16:00's 435 buy for $1.69.

There were no AH trades.

Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 30 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 216,746, 40.66% of day's volume, with a $1.6928 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 29 larger trades totaling 204,416, 38.34% of day's volume, with a $1.6948 VWAP. Note in the following breakdown where most of the larger trades occurred (see the comments about the 14:21-ending period above).

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  12:24   99421 $1.6600 $1.6900   $166,577.14 $1.6755 18.65% 38.19% Incl 09:30 $1.6600 12330 09:40 $1.6601 6000 
                                                                         10:06 $1.6900 7950 10:07 $1.6775 4966 
                                                                         10:09 $1.6700 4900 11:44 $1.6701 5000 
  13:56   46718 $1.6750 $1.6950    $78,856.50 $1.6879  8.76% 51.49% Incl 12:25 $1.6900 6000 
  14:21  214557 $1.6900 $1.7399   $368,450.83 $1.7173 40.25% 53.91% Incl 14:01 $1.7160 8000 $1.7001 5000 5000 
                                                                         14:03 $1.7300 11000 $1.7100 4000 
                                                                         14:07 $1.7199 20000 14:08 $1.7200 5000 
                                                                         14:08 $1.7100 8000 14:10 $1.7200 10000 
                                                                         14:13 $1.7200 5000 $1.7201 5000 
                                                                         14:19 $1.7200 5000 5000 
                                                                         14:20 $1.7100 13300 
  15:11   32110 $1.7000 $1.7200    $54,930.90 $1.7107  6.02% 53.46% Incl 14:59 $1.7100 5000 5000 
                                                                         15:11 $1.7199 6000 
  15:25   61644 $1.6300 $1.7100   $102,214.59 $1.6581 11.56% 49.93% Incl 15:22 $1.6500 6000 15:24 $1.6500 5000 
                                                                         15:25 $1.6300 14300 
  15:40   44288 $1.6365 $1.7000    $73,656.79 $1.6631  8.31% 48.51% Incl 15:34 $1.6499 4500 15:34 $1.6700 5500 
                                                                         15:39 $1.6601 9000 
  16:00   31079 $1.6600 $1.6900    $51,964.80 $1.6720  5.83% 48.21%

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -1.78%  -0.61%   0.57%   0.00%  32.76% 
 Prior      1.20%   0.61%   2.98%   1.20%  24.24%

Down day, except for the (manipulated?) high and close, on rising volume seems like a bad sign to me. Even considering the 14:21-ending period, I don't think there's a lot of positive here.

On my minimal chart there's good and bad. The good is ostensibly an up day on rising volume with higher high and close. The first bad is a lower open and low, wider spread (increasing volatility) during a down trend in which a break back above the resistance (orange line) seems to be failing for the second consecutive day on rising volume both days. This failure on rising volume should be very predictive.

I also note both days had closes right on the line and the closes were, IMO, manipulated closes.

On my one-year chart I want to mention a new factor I'm observing. My long-term descending resistance is nearing our price range. It's currently ~$2.06 and descending relatively rapidly, ~3.4 cents/day. If our price range stays where it's at the descending resistance would get to us in about 12-13 trading days and we would be testing the resistance.

As before, the 20 and 50-day SMAs continue to rise but the 10-day continues to roll over. The 10-day descent will continue for at least eight days if trading range remains static, which I consider unlikely.

The oscillators I watch remain mixed with a flat RSI and falling accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related. Full stochastic improved but is still in oversold, as is Williams %R. everything is below neutral.

The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3671 and $2.3329 ($1.3465 and $2.3381 yesterday) are still converging, with mid-point rising due to lower limit rising faster than the upper limit falls. We are now trading below the mid-point.

All in, all negative, all the time!



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a sign of normalcy, especially with the rising volume. Estimated short percentage is within spitting distance of my preferred range (needs re-check) and buy percentage rose to close to what's needed for sustainable appreciation. Unfortunately other indicators suggests this will not be the case near-term. The biggest red flag was the intra-day behavior, which was weak until the 14:21-ending period appeared and bolstered the buy percentage and volume. This sort of behavior is often a one-off that fails to appear again.

The spread continues to widen as price tries to again break above resistance and fails. On rising volume this is definitely not a positive.

VWAP movement, in spite of the 14:21-ending behavior, barely moved. If you look at the table you'll not the trend is lower - seven of the last ten readings have been negative.

All in, the "good" short and buy percentages are negated by the spread in a down trend and VWAP trend. More weakness near-term I think.

As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.

Bill