Thursday, April 28, 2016 9:12:04 AM
Today was somewhat similar to yesterday. Open low, shot up high, fell down in a long trend to bottom at 13:11's $1.65, bounce back up to the $1.66/9 area and go mostly flattish low volume through 15:41 and finish out the day on higher volume, but same range, mostly, to close the day at the opening price, $1.69.
There was one pre-market trade.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 6,314 sell for $1.69 and 4,273 more traded as high as $1.73 (one 1K & 100 trade) and as low as $1.67 (quite a few $1.67/8 trades). Then we saw 09:33-09;55's rise on highly volatile volume and price begin with (noting only significant price moves and/or volumes) 9:33's ~1.8K $1.66/7, 9:35's 11.7K $1.66->$1.70->$1.66, 9:42's ~18.7K $1.66->$1.70->$1.66, 9:48-:9:52's ~29.3K $1.68/9->$1.69/$1.71, and 9:53-:55's ~36.2K $1.69/$1.71->$1.67/8 to end the period on 9:55's ~4.8K $1.67/8.
09:56-10:32 did 9:56-10:09's mostly low/no-volume rise to $1.69/70 on 10:02's 5.2K and then did 10:10-10:32's mixed-volume $1.68/70 and ended the period on 10:32's ~2.4K $1.69/70.
10:33-12:35, after a no-trades five minutes, began $1.68/9, mostly very low/no-volume (interrupted by 10:41-:43's ~20.3K, 11:00's ~1.2K drop to $1.67, 11:14's~13.3K, and 11:49-:50's ~10.6K $1.67/11:49-:50's ~10.6K $1.67/88, 12:07's 1.3K $1.69/70), and ended on 12:35's ~2.2K $1.68.
12:36-13:07, after a no-trades eleven minutes, did 12:47-:48's 550 $1.6735/8, 12:50's 550 $1.67, and did 12:50-13:00 very low/no-volume $1.67/8, and 13:01-:07 switched to $1.66xx/8 to end the period on 13:07's 100 $1.67.
13:08-13:12, after a no-trade minute, did 13:09's $1.66 x 250, and 13:11-:12's ~6.8K $1.66->$1.65 ended the period.
13:13-15:06 began with 13:13's 10.2K $1.67->$1.68, and did very low/no-volume $1.67/8 (interrupted by 13:49's $1.68/9 x 200, 13:56's $1.69 x 100, 14:00-:04's $1.68/9 x ~2K, 14:12's $1.69 x 200, 14:20's $1.69 x ~1.1K, and 14:43's $1.76 x 170) and ended the period on 15:06's $1.67 x 118.
15:07-15:17 began with 15:07's $1.67->$1.66 x 2.7K, did a couple very low/no-volume minutes there, did 15:11-:13's $1.66/7 x ~11.9K, and ended the period on 15:17's $1.67 x ~1.1K.
15:18-15:42 began low/no-volume with 15:18-:19's $1.68 x 800, did mostly low/no-volume $1.67/8, with some medium volume, (interrupted by 15:31's $1.67 x 4.4K), and ended the period on 15:42's $1.68 x 300.
15:43-16:00 began the EOD volatility when it did 15:43's $1.68/9 x 840, did 15:44-:48 mostly low volume there, did 15:49-:53's $1.67/9 x ~27.9K, and then did low-volume there, except for 15:57's $1.67/8 x 12.1Kr. The period and day ended with a $1.69 x 969 buy.
There were three suspicious AH sells that might be suggesting early action tomorrow.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 15 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 108,106, 26.92% of day's volume, with a $1.6828 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 14 larger trades totaling 101,792, 25.35% of day's volume, with a $1.6824 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 125112 $1.6600 $1.7300 $210,706.74 $1.6841 31.16% 42.64% Incl 09:30 1.6900 6,314 09:35 1.6700 7,900
09:42 1.6700 7,592 09:45 1.6800 8,500
09:48 1.6801 5,000 09:53 1.7000 6,900
09:54 1.6900 9,500
10:32 71097 $1.6799 $1.7000 $120,273.12 $1.6917 17.70% 37.54% Incl 10:10 1.6900 7,500 7,500
10:12 1.6830 5,000
12:35 80281 $1.6700 $1.7000 $135,110.66 $1.6830 19.99% 38.28% Incl 10:42 1.6800 5,600
13:07 2525 $1.6658 $1.6800 $4,220.80 $1.6716 0.63% 39.53%
13:12 7394 $1.6500 $1.6650 $12,206.89 $1.6509 1.84% 39.03%
15:06 36985 $1.6637 $1.6900 $61,968.79 $1.6755 9.21% 41.30% Incl 13:13 1.6700 4,700 15:05 1.6799 4,900
15:17 15750 $1.6650 $1.6750 $26,312.36 $1.6706 3.92% 42.76% Incl 15:12 1.6710 8,700
15:42 14461 $1.6701 $1.6850 $24,246.41 $1.6767 3.60% 42.15%
16:00 44243 $1.6750 $1.6900 $74,544.50 $1.6849 11.02% 43.71% Incl 15:52 1.6900 12,500
17:10 300 $1.6400 $1.6700 $498.00 $1.6600 0.07% 43.68%
N.B. The official low was $1.65 instead of the $1.64 seen AH. Using $1.65 for the low would make it's movement 1.23% instead of the 0.61% I have.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.20% 0.61% 2.98% 1.20% 24.24%
Prior -4.57% -1.21% -5.62% 0.00% -57.09%
On my minimal chart we have three possibly significant, but conflicting, signals today. Our first (51%) bullish one is that we opened and closed at the same price level, giving us another doji candlestick (this time a "long legged" one), which is similar to yesterday's - signaling indecision but is a bullish continuation 51% of the time, per Bulkowski. He considers that random and warns against trading based on it. Yesterday's doji was followed by today's reversal up, so there's our favorable 50%.
Our second bullish indicator is a rising volume on an up day.
Will tomorrow be our unfavorable 50%?
If the AH trades are an indication, it would seem so. I think this is our first (but unconventional) bearish indicator.
Our second bearish indicator comes on the third day's close below the $1.67-$1.70 support/resistance (orange line). Theoretically, getting above it again should be tough because it has multiple touches as resistance and each one had volume that was high for the period. Breaking above it required PR catalysts and very high volume, indicating how strong resistance was.
Breaking back below came on low volume on the first challenge as support. It then confirmed on even lower volume but that might have been nothing more than the effects demonstrated by the doji - indecision with a possible reversal in store.
Yesterday I mentioned I distrusted the bullish indicators because of the abnormality indicated by my unconventional stuff. Until I look at that stuff again (below) I would still be distrustful.
From these considerations, and likely because I'm so jaded, I take away a bearish suggestion mostly due to the AH trades today.
On my one-year chart the 20 and 50-day SMAs continue to rise but the 10-day has begun to roll over, making me wrong when I said { The 10-day has one more day, if price range doesn't rise, before it starts to roll over. } I apparently misread something because today the drop off the tail is obviously way above our current range and it's obvious that roll over would begin sans a huge rise. The 20-day is still safe if we don't fall as the tail will be dropping lower values for another nine days or so. Considering what I see, before looking at my unconventional stuff, I do think odds favor lower right now though.
The oscillators I watch have gone mixed with marginal improvement in RSI, full stochastic (still deeply oversold though), and momentum. All are still well bellow neutral. Weakening, and all still below neutral, was seen in MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R (made it into oversold today). Accumulation/distribution was flat.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3465 and $2.3381 ($1.2719 and $2.3665 yesterday) continued their convergence and the mid-point rise continued as the lower limit rate of rise exceeds the rte of fall by the upper limit. We have early indications of all that changing though, but not yet.
All in, if I were dispassionate, I would be neutral here due to the mixed indications. Not being dispassionate I'll rely on history though and suggest that folks that can manipulate the indicators, like the small out-of-market trades, are doing so to lie to us.
So I'll go with near-term increasing weakness based on the conventional TA's mixed nature, historical behavior and my natural bias towards "conspiracy theories".
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved again in opposite directions - abnormal - and the short percentage is just below my desired range (needs re-check and remember it's no estimated due to ARCA not reporting). That "just below" is the only good news as the buy percentage fell back to ranges that generally don't result in upward movements.
Adding in that volume was up makes these items seem worse than they would appear on the surface.
The spread grew, thanks to early spike up and long slow extended seemingly never-ending down through early 13:xx. Being currently in a down trend it looks wide enough to suggest more near-term downward pressure, although the spread is not really all that wide (yet?).
VWAP movement almost got back to Monday's VWAP. since it came on rising volume I'd like to think it's indicative but that same rise increases the strength I assign to the negative aspects of these metrics.
All in, my unconventional stuff suggests to me near-term weakness continues.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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