$heff's $tation of $tocks & $olid DD

[BioHunter]

Portfolio Update $TRVN purchased a full position 12% $7.96

April 16- Needham presentation
http://wsw.com/webcast/needham76/trvn/
http://www.trevenainc.com/pdf/trevena-corporate-presentation.pdf


I will provide more DD later, but basic trade thesis:

Stock is near the low end of it’s recent range. It appears there has been an institutional seller the last week or so. Volume started to dry up last 3 trading days. My thinking yesterday seller was done, but today on a red day it is hard to judge. But I really like the entry here, specific catalysts dates on P2 acute heart failure drug, facts around catalyst, MOA and valuation. Plus company’s primary asset Oliceridine is in two P3 trials after stellar P2 results from September 15 that sent the stock from 6 to $13

Company announced phase 2 cardio heart failure data BLAST-AHF will be announced May 21st at Heart Failure 2016 conference. Trial data was selected for Late Breaker oral presentation. Most late breakers tend to be around strong trial data, although that is not always the case. I view selection as positive. $TRVN’s BLASH-AHF trial had interim look at data in 2015 and DSMB recommended expanding enrollment in their target best dose cohort. The drug is partnered with $AGN. $AGN has a 65M option on the P2 readout. I like $AGN’s confidence in the drug and milestone would be significant non-dilutive financing.

Company has over 160M in cash or +$3 per share. 65M from AGN on positive P2 would provide significant non-dilutive cash.

Good insider support at (34%) and institutional support (40%). Wellington Asset Mgmt increased there holding 32% or 2M shares last month. FMR also increased their position 37% giving them 15% ownership. To be fare two tutes sold as well, so net change in tute ownership is almost a wash.

Two ongoing P3 trials in Oliceridine for pain management. Company announced robust P2 data and received breakthrough therapy. P3 results expected Q1-17 but this asset put a floor on the stock imo. Oliceridine targets patient population of 50M and goes after a different receptor in pain management then opioids. FDA is highly motivated here to find new solutions vs opioids.

Looking for a solid run back towards $10 before P2 data at Heart Failure 2016. Positive data should send shares to new 52wk highs mid teens IMO. Negative results probably only send shares to $mid single digits call it $7 due to their primary asset in P2 trials for pain management, Oliceridine.

-BioHunter