Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/21 2016 EOD

I continue bearish today.

The was an order for 1.5MW from a Chinese distributor this morning.

There were 33 pre-market trades totaling 21,950 $1.85-$1.92.

09:30-11:06 opened the day on an 11,841 sell for $1.84 followed by twelve minutes of low-volume $1.85/7 and then began a medium/high-volume drop, hitting 9:43's 8.2K $1.86-$1.83, 9:45's ~12K $1.85->$1.82, 9:56's ~2.2K $1.83-$1.81, 10:26-10:39's 184.4K, and 10:40-11:06's 85.9K to end the period.

11:07-11:51 gave the only up move of the day other than that beginning at ~15:49 into the close, doing 11:07-:8's 742 $1.74->$1.77, doing sideways low/medium-volume $1.75/7 (but for 11:11's ~8.8K $1.74/6), and doing a rise on 11:48-:51's ~18.3K $1.76->$1.78 to end the period.

11:52-13:11 did sideways $1.77/8, on initially low volume, and went very low/no-volume there to end on 13:11's 100 $1.78.

13:12-14:07 began with 300 $1.78->$1.76 and went very low/no-volume $1.76/7, but for 13:47's ~100 $1.78, and ended on 14:07's 900 $1.76.

14:08-15:56 began with 14:08's ~46.8K $1.76->$1.75 and began very low/no-volume $1.75/6, but for 14:15's ~14.6K $1.75/6, 14:48's ~10.2K $1.76, 15:20's 7.5K $1.76/9, 15:24's 300 $1.76/7, and 15:50's ~7.8K $1.75/7, and the period ended with 15:56's ~4K $1.75.

15:57-16:00 began with ~11K $1.76/8, did 15:58's ~1K $1.77, 15:59's ~12.8K $1.76/7, and closed the period and day with a 7,741 buy for $1.79.

There were four AH sells totaling 8K $1.74-$1.80. Two at 19:59:12 for 1.3K & 1.7K were suspicious because they went off at 19:59:12, a common occurrence that seems to foretell tomorrow's early action.

Including the opening and closing trades, there were 19 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 184,970, 22.04% of day's volume, with a $1.7897 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 17 larger trades totaling 165,388, 19.71% of day's volume, with a $1.7861 VWAP.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  09:22   21950 $1.8500 $1.9200  $41,567.00 $1.8937  2.62% 79.50% 
  11:06  440066 $1.7300 $1.8700 $792,138.66 $1.8000 52.43% 32.19% Incl 09:30 $1.8400 11,841 $1.8600 5,400 
                                                                       09:30 $1.8700 7,252 09:43 $1.8500 5,000 
                                                                       09:44 $1.8387 5,900 09:45 $1.8200 5,700 
                                                                       09:53 $1.8100 4,786 10:02 $1.8299 5,000 
                                                                       10:29 $1.8100 29,000 10:34 $1.7750 5,800 
                                                                       10:37 $1.7700 6,500 11:02 $1.7500 4,800 
                                                                       11:05 $1.7500 7,250 11:06 $1.7300 17,100 
  11:51   68952 $1.7400 $1.7799 $121,536.42 $1.7626  8.22% 31.35% 
  13:11   59252 $1.7700 $1.7800 $105,200.67 $1.7755  7.06% 33.17% Incl 12:54 $1.7733 5,000 
  14:07   24300 $1.7600 $1.7800  $42,905.52 $1.7657  2.90% 31.56% 
  15:56  171053 $1.7500 $1.7900 $300,606.94 $1.7574 20.38% 33.77% Incl 14:08 $1.7600 40,000 $1.7600 5,900 
  16:00   31583 $1.7600 $1.7900  $55,916.93 $1.7705  3.76% 34.36% Incl 16:00 $1.7900 7,741 
  19:59    8500 $1.7400 $1.8000  $15,020.00 $1.7671  1.01% 34.07% Incl 16:48 $1.7800 5,000

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -1.08%  -4.95%  -0.52%  -3.24%  31.51% 
 Prior     -7.00%   2.82% -12.27%  -2.63% -83.66%

N.B. The "official" high was $1.87. Using that the high movement would be -3.11% instead of the -0.52 we actually saw.

On my minimal chart lower high, open (below yesterday's close), low, and close bode ill and only the falling volume offers hope that we are nearing a bottom. However that lower volume is still too high to suggest a quick appearance of the bottom. As suggested in past days, it does look like we will eventually challenge the $1.67/$1.70 price (orange line). If that doesn't hold, $1.53 is the next potential support (upper red line). Considering the likely pressure from the ATM (if it's still active), "financiers" in the latest share and warrant offerings, and shorters aware of that offering maybe shorting, I don't see how either of these to potential supports can hold sans some really big catalyst. The momo traders have apparently finished doing their thing, which helped drive it up and then back down, and should not be a factor sans another catalyst that drive volume and price up.

This conclusion regarding the momo players is supported by the price action and especially the falling volume these last two days.

On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs continue to rise and will continue to do so until price range gets down to the $1.5x area. The one will begin to flatten or roll over, depending on what price is achieved on the close in that area, or lower.

The oscillators I watch all continued to weaken and we now have full stochastic getting ready to enter oversold. Williams %R has a way to go yet, but it looks like it is heading there. The other remain above neutral.

The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.0778 and $2.4099 ($1.0283 and $2.4024 yesterday) are converging as the upper limit begins to rise more slowly and the lower limit rises more rapidly. So the mid-point is still rising and our price range is now quite near the mid point. If we drop below that I think a rapid descent will ensue.

All in, nothing positive, other than falling volume if we ignore the average before the huge spike began, and lots suggesting near-term weakness.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions - maybe should have been expected with the oddness the past couple of days, and short and buy percentages are still below what I believe is needed for sustained appreciation (re-check) needed. The buy percentage is especially negative, but that could be a result of inter/intra-broker trades as we had a 40K traded that likely was inter/intra-broker and would not generate a short.

The spread is excessive, generated by an almost-exclusively down trend intra-day behavior, and is with a down trend. This suggests more downside near-term.

VWAP movement down is starting to accelerate again. Let's hope it was just a one-day thing. It could be argued that volume suggests the descent will slow, but I don't believe it yet because the volume is still too high.

All in, no positives. More near-term weakness should be seen I think.

As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.

Bill