Thursday, April 14, 2016 4:46:28 AM
While it may seem counterintuitive, both a feather and a bowling ball will plummet to earth at the same speed when dropped from the same height when wind resistance and buoyancy are removed from the equation. So, too, will anything that is for sale be subject to the laws of supply and demand - which are truly all that we are trying to accurately measure when we apply our indicators to our charts.
I confine my remarks to the indicators that I have applied up to this point.
The Accumulation/Distribution Line seeks to gauge wheather accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling) predominates. While in practice, many traders look for a divergence between price and the indicator in an effort to better time potential entries, Alan Farley illustrates a simple method wherein a sharp rise in the indicator above a prior area of resistance may serve as a potential entry trigger.
Joseph Granville's On Balance Volume indicator was developed on his belief that when volume increases sharply without a significant change in price, the price will eventually move upward. The claim is sometimes advanced that this indicator is better at revealing the slow and measured accumulation of the "smart money" investors than are some others. However, interpretation of OBV may be as flexible as your imagination (and back testing or chart reading) abilities may be.
Neither of these indicators comes with the caveat that they ought only be applied to securities of a minimum price. This is because the demand - or lack thereof - for a gumball, a cup of coffee, or an ounce of gold bullion drive the price with the same vigor.
Perceived value also drives demand. To my palate, nothing is more distasteful than a cup of Starbuck's (SBUX) coffee. Give me Folger's Instant or a standard brew from my local 7-11 and I'll be quite content, thank you. However, there are enough people out there who differ with me on this point; so many, in fact, that demand has driven SBUX through a continuing rally throughout quite nearly the entirety of 2015, to its current close of $60.21. Below is the weekly chart.
This concept has been expressed by countless luminaries in the field of technical analysis, and most eloquently so by Thomas J. Dorsey, who explains: "The irrefutable law of supply and demand has not changed since first introduced in the caveman days. If you understand and embrace the concept of supply and demand, you are at the right place."
With respect to Fibonacci analysis, some securities are more "Fib friendly" than are others. That Fibonacci works at all is, I believe, due to a combination of two things. The first would be self fulfilling prophecy; that is if enough people anticipate a certain result, their respective buying and selling activities may serve to drive the results, thus proving the theory correct. The second aspect of Fibonacci trading is, I believe, that many quant-created programs scour the market for Fib friendly charts, and work to fulfill the prophecy on autopilot, if you will.
As Fibonacci is based on ratios, it ought not matter what the price is. Just as a tree, or a conch shell maintains its Fibonacci ratios throughout its life cycle, so do a number of stocks. Early identification of these wonders of the universe may be a hingepin to success in the markets, hence I conduct a Fibonacci analysis of everything I run across. It doesn't always work, but when it does it works with some utterly remarkable results.
Recent JSDA News
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:24:50 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:24:22 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:23:29 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:22:20 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/09/2024 08:21:34 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/03/2024 09:17:37 PM
- Form EFFECT - Notice of Effectiveness • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/03/2024 04:15:10 AM
- Form S-1 - General form for registration of securities under the Securities Act of 1933 • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/23/2024 09:27:05 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/22/2024 08:11:11 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/14/2024 07:32:39 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/13/2024 08:10:10 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/01/2024 09:16:40 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/23/2024 07:48:02 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/16/2024 08:45:12 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/30/2024 08:00:07 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/23/2024 06:21:14 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/17/2024 08:18:12 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/15/2024 07:46:07 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/14/2024 08:10:16 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/21/2023 12:39:11 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/05/2023 02:50:11 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/14/2023 07:46:03 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 11/09/2023 09:10:14 PM
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