Trading a portion makes sense given the roller coaster you have been on with SBS. All of my shares are well in the green. My long term target is in the $30 range in 2019 or so. However, trading around the core makes it easier for me to tolerate the volatility.
Fortunately, water and sanitation tend to be pretty stable and cannot be replaced by other products. Zika probably provides an incentive for SBS to pick up additional users. Storage of water in cisterns can provide a breeding ground for mosquitoes. Expect public officials to push expanding water pipelines so that fewer sources of standing water exist. However, in the short term, this comes with its own problems, in the way of increased construction costs.
The political situation may also be a positive in that they are also going after the VP Micheal Temer. There seems to be a turn in S. America toward centralist regimes. Witness Mauricio Macri efforts to reform Argentina in the last several months since he took office. Venezuala elected a new party tothe majority in congress in January and they are trying to undo many of the destructive policies of the Chavez regime. These political changes could unlock many of the shackles that have held South America Back. The push to impeach Rouseff is coming primarily from pro-business forces in Sao Paulo. 10 years from now we might point to 2016 as a pivotal time in the history of S. America. That said, this area has always had tremendous potential that they have never been able to realize.
I'm betting that SBS will outperform the US market over the next 3 years. The water supply will be much less drought susceptible by next year since the diversion project will help reduce dependence on rainfall alone to refill the reservoirs. Leakage from pipes will be significantly reduced, and tolerance for deadbeat municipalities seems to be over.
Interesting case of Brazil being a cup half full. As I mentioned before, part of my reason for buying SBS is that it is a play on a potential weakening of the US dollar. I Like this approach better than gold since it is based on a commodity necessary to sustain life, rather than one with a value based largely on perceptions.
Have a good weekend.
FL
