Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Don’t Coddle Donald Trump

.. some history via, ouch, not easy to post, Karl Rove ..

A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.

[Image of the sucker fish i can't post] - Donald Trump campaigning in St. Louis, March 11. Photo: Associated Press

By Karl Rove
March 23, 2016 7:22 p.m. ET

At the March 10 Republican debate in Miami, Donald Trump said “I think that whoever gets the most delegates should win”—meaning that if no candidate holds a majority at the GOP’s Cleveland convention, the nomination should go to whoever has a plurality.

A majority, The Donald said, is an “artificial number that was set by somebody.” But decrying the use of what he called a “very random number” is not just whining; it is a demand for radical change.

How radical? The rule that the Republican nominee must win a majority of the national convention has been in force for 160 years, since the party’s first convention in 1856 selected John C. Fremont as its standard-bearer. Five Republicans who went on to become president trailed in the convention when voting began.

In 1860, New York Sen. William H. Seward topped the first ballot with 173½ votes, 60 short of a majority. Abraham Lincoln was behind with 102. His managers feverishly worked the convention’s anti-Seward majority and, probably with the help of promises of patronage, Lincoln closed the gap on the second ballot and won on the third. Angry, a quarter of the delegates stayed with Seward and the convention ended in a split. Still, Lincoln prevailed and became the nation’s savior.

In 1876, Maine Sen. James G. Blaine led on the opening ballot, and Ohio Gov. Rutherford B. Hayes was a distant fifth. But the Ohioan moved up to third place on the fifth ballot and grabbed a majority on the seventh.

Four years later, former President Ulysses S. Grant attempted a comeback after leaving office in 1877. He led the convention for two days through 34 ballots. But on the 35th, delegates began rallying to Ohio Rep. James A. Garfield, who was not even a candidate when the convention began. After one more ballot, Garfield was the GOP nominee.

In 1888, Ohio Sen. John Sherman was the front-runner, but his campaign faltered. This gave an opening to Indiana Sen. Benjamin Harrison, who was in fifth place on the initial ballot. Harrison began moving up on the third ballot and was nominated on the eighth.

The 1920 convention was initially led by Gen. Leonard Wood, who had organized the Rough Riders with Theodore Roosevelt and served as Army chief of staff. Wood had nearly a third of the delegates on the first ballot. In sixth place was Ohio Sen. Warren Harding, who trailed the pack until he moved into third place on the seventh ballot before being nominated on the 10th.

The last time that the Republican who started with the most delegates failed to win the nomination was 1940, when Manhattan District Attorney Thomas E. Dewey led for three ballots—until former Kansas Gov. Alf Landon met with Minnesota Gov. Harold Stassen in a freight elevator behind the stage. The two men then threw their support to utility executive Wendell Willkie, who won on the sixth ballot, beating not only Dewey but also Ohio Sen. Robert Taft.

On the other side of the aisle, three Democratic presidents— James K. Polk in 1844, Franklin Pierce in 1852 and Woodrow Wilson in 1912—were nominated after trailing in early balloting. Five other Democratic nominees lagged behind when voting began. The last was in 1952: Adlai Stevenson did not compete for the nomination before the convention.

Mr. Trump is probably correct that if he falls short on the first ballot by only a handful of votes, 20 or so, he is the likely nominee. But if he is down by a larger number, say 100 to 200, he could be in trouble. Mr. Trump surely knows this, which is why he threatened “riots” if he is denied the nomination.

The reality-TV star also said the effect would be to “disenfranchise” his supporters. Nonsense. After all, following Tuesday’s contests, Mr. Trump has received 37% of the votes so far. He has yet to break 50% in a single state. By the end of the primaries, most Republicans are likely to have voted for someone else. Would giving Mr. Trump the nomination “disenfranchise” them?

Mr. Trump should stop demanding to be treated differently than any GOP candidate before him, including Abraham Lincoln. Rather than try to change the rules in the middle of the contest, he should focus on gaining the nomination outright by winning 55% of the remaining delegates. If he can’t, he must convince the convention that he is worthy of a majority. Given how badly he does in polls against Hillary Clinton, that may be difficult.

Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is the author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

http://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-coddle-donald-trump-1458775369

IF Humptygrump loses i don't see him running as an independent, either .. see comment sitting 4 down now ..

Lol, Karl and the rest must be getting twitchy about the possibility you mentioned.

See also:

DrHarleyboy, that's dumb. How about differences? Superficial similarities
only don't make for any valid basis for any valid comparison of the two men.
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