Sunday, April 03, 2016 1:05:18 AM
Anti-elite sentiment may lead to Brexit, warns PM's 'best friend'
.. first a conservative 'in' view ..
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
2 April 2016 • 9:21pm
David Cameron’s so-called “best friend” in European politics has warned the Prime Minister that he has made a potentially catastrophic miscalculation by calling an EU referendum that could spark the “disintegration of Europe as we know it”.
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former prime minister of Sweden who spoke at the Conservative Party conference in 2006, told the Telegraph that he fears his old friend is in danger of losing the EU referendum on June 23 after because of rising anti-establishment sentiment in Europe.
Mr Reinfeldt, a centre-right modernizer who regularly exchanges text messages with Mr Cameron, said his own experience of being dumped out of office in 2014 despite being dubbed the “rock-star of the recovery” had taught him how fickle electorates can be.
--
“We saw that definitely in Sweden, we got an anti-elite vote
in our referendum, and Britain stands a risk of that too."
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former prime minister of Sweden
--
"It becomes an emotional vote. People think: ‘I will vote against the elite. If this is what they think we should do, I will do the opposite’,” he said.
He recalled how losing Sweden's 2003 Euro referendum had taught him that anti-Brussels sentiment was easily capable of trumping hard-headed argument.
“We saw that definitely in Sweden, we got an anti-elite vote in our referendum, and Britain stands a risk of that too," he added.
“I've learned that a referendum can go either way, and that can easily become a discussion of other things from what you have asked the people about, that other emotions will come in."
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
In office Mr Cameron and Mr Reinfeldt were close political allies, with the British prime minister openly admiring the so-called Nordic Model of economy that blends comprehensive welfare provision with an emphasis on social mobility and the individual.
However after Mr Cameron’s much-criticised EU renegotiation deal made little impact on voters, Mr Reinfeldt said that the result will now depend on the highly uncertain extent to which the British public appreciated the economic value of its EU membership.
“It will come down to the more basic question, not about the negotiation result, but the question of ‘do we understand the full impact of British membership of the European Union? Do we understand what we are saying “no” to when we are leaving?’ And I’m not sure people do.”
--
“I’m pretty sure that if Britain leaves, those voices which want to deepen integration will be stronger, so you might
end up outside of a European Union that goes in a direction you do not like, but which you are still dependent on."
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former prime minister of Sweden
--
He dismissed as “fantasies” many of the Out campaign’s promises that a “Brexit” would save money, boost business and reclaim British sovereignty, but acknowledged that those arguments were hitting home with voters.
“A lot of the things which are written and said in Britain are plainly fantasies and I’m saying this as a friend of Britain,” he said, adding that pro-leave promises that the UK would swiftly be able to negotiate a new deal with Brussels were wildly optimistic.
“I’m very surprised to hear so many on the ‘Out’ side say that this is going to be easy, and that it’s going to go quite quick,” he said.
Instead, he warned, Britain’s departure would be “a very big break-out when it comes to legislation and economic links and ties”, bringing “great uncertainty for quite some time”.
“And if I know anything about financial markets, the one thing they dislike is uncertainty,” he said, warning that recent falls in the pound were an early indication of what might happen.
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
Mr Reinfeldt, who this month announced that he was joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch as a Senior Advisor, poured scorn on the “Out” campaign’s claims that leaving the EU would allow Britain to get back its net contribution to the EU budget (about £8.5 billion in 2015).
“I think this notion that ‘once the membership fee is out, we won’t have to pay’, is wrong,” he said.
He said that other net contributors, such as France, Germany and Sweden would not be willing to themselves make up the gap left by the UK, and would therefore insist on the UK paying anyway as the condition of any trade deal, just as they do with Norway.
“If you think that everyone will not take that position, then you don’t understand what would happen in Europe. We also have our voters. We also have our discussions on how much to pay,” he said.
He also argued that those on the ‘Leave’ side failed to grasp the extent to which British membership had acted as a counterweight to those in the EU bent on creating an economic and political superstate.
“I’m pretty sure that if Britain leaves, those voices which want to deepen integration will be stronger, so you might end up outside of a European Union that goes in a direction you do not like, but which you are still dependent on,” he said.
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
This was particularly a worry for free trade-oriented countries such as Sweden, Denmark and The Netherlands, as Britain’s departure would increase the power of more economically interventionist countries such as France.
“There will be a rebalancing,” he predicted. “There are very few big net contributors to the budget, and there’s a balancing act when it comes to ‘do we believe in more open markets, more trade, or do we believe more in top-down controlling of the economy?’.”
UK voters also underestimated the influence Britain has in Brussels, he argued, saying that Britain was one of the “most influential countries” in Europe and “very skilled” at using that power, as shown by the raft of opt-outs and rebates won by Britain over the years.
Mr Cameron, Reinfeldt claimed, had been “probably the most gifted I’ve seen” in Europe, showing an unusual skill in personally “writing or reshaping” European Council conclusions, particularly in 2013, when he helped drive through the first ever real-terms cut in the European Union’s budget.
The explicit acknowledgement in the renegotiation that the commitment to “ever closer union” did not apply to the UK had finally put to rest the assumption, common in Brussels, that all 28 members states would eventually join the Euro.
“He has had huge impact in the European Union,” concluded Mr Reinfeldt, “more than I think is recognised in Britain.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/anti-elite-sentiment-may-lead-to-brexit-warns-pms-best-friend/
---
Brexit: Julie Bishop tells British PM David Cameron change 'not in Australia's interests'
Posted Sat at 3:34pm
Photo: Julie Bishop met with David Cameron on the sidelines
of the Nuclear Security Summit. (Twitter: Julie Bishop)
Related Story: Berlin 'not amused' by consequences of potential Brexit
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-01/brexit's-consequences-for-trading-partner-germany/7211424
Map: Australia .. http://www.google.com/maps/place/Australia/@-26.000,134.500,5z
Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop has weighed in on the Brexit debate, telling the British Prime
Minister that it is in Australia's interests to see the UK remain part of the European Union.
Ms Bishop is currently in Washington DC for the Nuclear Security Summit, where world leaders
are discussing how to protect uranium and plutonium from falling into the hands of terrorists ..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-31/nuclear-summit-to-focus-on-protecting-material-from-terrorists/7286886 .
But in sideline talks with Prime Minister David Cameron, Ms Bishop's focus turned to Britain's uncertain future in the EU.
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to continue on as one of the union's 28 member states on June 23.
.. more .. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-02/bishop-tells-british-pm-'brexit-not-in-australia's-interests'/7294664
---
.. last one from the left, again an 'in' position just not so complimentary of David Cameron ..
David Cameron deserves to come out of the EU referendum with no credit
Polly Toynbee
Thursday 18 February 2016 07.45 EST
Since becoming Conservative leader in 2005, Cameron has taken every opportunity to undermine Europe. He ought to be ashamed of his actions
‘The “in” lobby talks often of the influence the UK holds as one of the big beasts of the EU: David Cameron will have greatly diminished it.’
‘The “in” lobby talks often of the influence the UK holds as one of the big beasts of the
EU: David Cameron will have greatly diminished it.’ Photograph: Srdjan Zivulovic/Reuters
[...]
Cameron enters the “in” campaign having spent his entire decade as party leader undermining support for it. He deserves to lose, but we have to hope to God he doesn’t. Under him, Britain has had next to nothing constructive to contribute to the EU’s troubles, riven and immobilised over the migration crisis, and by the euro’s weakness to which austerity was the wrong answer. Fumbling over Ukraine and Crimea, effective diplomacy in dealing with Putin still eludes the 28 nations. America, with its grotesque Republican candidates, looks a less sane superpower ally just now.
These are mighty issues, beside which the precise size of payment of child benefit to very few children of EU migrant workers is a mean-minded irrelevance to haggle over. So is his “emergency brake”, while Osborne’s bid to restrict EU regulation and taxation of our tax haven City is just squalid. As for resigning from an “ever closer union”, that looks peculiarly empty when the EU is pulling itself further apart.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/18/david-cameron-eu-referendum-no-credit-conservative-europe-ashamed
.. first a conservative 'in' view ..
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
2 April 2016 • 9:21pm
David Cameron’s so-called “best friend” in European politics has warned the Prime Minister that he has made a potentially catastrophic miscalculation by calling an EU referendum that could spark the “disintegration of Europe as we know it”.
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former prime minister of Sweden who spoke at the Conservative Party conference in 2006, told the Telegraph that he fears his old friend is in danger of losing the EU referendum on June 23 after because of rising anti-establishment sentiment in Europe.
Mr Reinfeldt, a centre-right modernizer who regularly exchanges text messages with Mr Cameron, said his own experience of being dumped out of office in 2014 despite being dubbed the “rock-star of the recovery” had taught him how fickle electorates can be.
--
“We saw that definitely in Sweden, we got an anti-elite vote
in our referendum, and Britain stands a risk of that too."
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former prime minister of Sweden
--
"It becomes an emotional vote. People think: ‘I will vote against the elite. If this is what they think we should do, I will do the opposite’,” he said.
He recalled how losing Sweden's 2003 Euro referendum had taught him that anti-Brussels sentiment was easily capable of trumping hard-headed argument.
“We saw that definitely in Sweden, we got an anti-elite vote in our referendum, and Britain stands a risk of that too," he added.
“I've learned that a referendum can go either way, and that can easily become a discussion of other things from what you have asked the people about, that other emotions will come in."
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
In office Mr Cameron and Mr Reinfeldt were close political allies, with the British prime minister openly admiring the so-called Nordic Model of economy that blends comprehensive welfare provision with an emphasis on social mobility and the individual.
However after Mr Cameron’s much-criticised EU renegotiation deal made little impact on voters, Mr Reinfeldt said that the result will now depend on the highly uncertain extent to which the British public appreciated the economic value of its EU membership.
“It will come down to the more basic question, not about the negotiation result, but the question of ‘do we understand the full impact of British membership of the European Union? Do we understand what we are saying “no” to when we are leaving?’ And I’m not sure people do.”
--
“I’m pretty sure that if Britain leaves, those voices which want to deepen integration will be stronger, so you might
end up outside of a European Union that goes in a direction you do not like, but which you are still dependent on."
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former prime minister of Sweden
--
He dismissed as “fantasies” many of the Out campaign’s promises that a “Brexit” would save money, boost business and reclaim British sovereignty, but acknowledged that those arguments were hitting home with voters.
“A lot of the things which are written and said in Britain are plainly fantasies and I’m saying this as a friend of Britain,” he said, adding that pro-leave promises that the UK would swiftly be able to negotiate a new deal with Brussels were wildly optimistic.
“I’m very surprised to hear so many on the ‘Out’ side say that this is going to be easy, and that it’s going to go quite quick,” he said.
Instead, he warned, Britain’s departure would be “a very big break-out when it comes to legislation and economic links and ties”, bringing “great uncertainty for quite some time”.
“And if I know anything about financial markets, the one thing they dislike is uncertainty,” he said, warning that recent falls in the pound were an early indication of what might happen.
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
Mr Reinfeldt, who this month announced that he was joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch as a Senior Advisor, poured scorn on the “Out” campaign’s claims that leaving the EU would allow Britain to get back its net contribution to the EU budget (about £8.5 billion in 2015).
“I think this notion that ‘once the membership fee is out, we won’t have to pay’, is wrong,” he said.
He said that other net contributors, such as France, Germany and Sweden would not be willing to themselves make up the gap left by the UK, and would therefore insist on the UK paying anyway as the condition of any trade deal, just as they do with Norway.
“If you think that everyone will not take that position, then you don’t understand what would happen in Europe. We also have our voters. We also have our discussions on how much to pay,” he said.
He also argued that those on the ‘Leave’ side failed to grasp the extent to which British membership had acted as a counterweight to those in the EU bent on creating an economic and political superstate.
“I’m pretty sure that if Britain leaves, those voices which want to deepen integration will be stronger, so you might end up outside of a European Union that goes in a direction you do not like, but which you are still dependent on,” he said.
David Cameron with Fredrik Reinfeldt Credit: PA
This was particularly a worry for free trade-oriented countries such as Sweden, Denmark and The Netherlands, as Britain’s departure would increase the power of more economically interventionist countries such as France.
“There will be a rebalancing,” he predicted. “There are very few big net contributors to the budget, and there’s a balancing act when it comes to ‘do we believe in more open markets, more trade, or do we believe more in top-down controlling of the economy?’.”
UK voters also underestimated the influence Britain has in Brussels, he argued, saying that Britain was one of the “most influential countries” in Europe and “very skilled” at using that power, as shown by the raft of opt-outs and rebates won by Britain over the years.
Mr Cameron, Reinfeldt claimed, had been “probably the most gifted I’ve seen” in Europe, showing an unusual skill in personally “writing or reshaping” European Council conclusions, particularly in 2013, when he helped drive through the first ever real-terms cut in the European Union’s budget.
The explicit acknowledgement in the renegotiation that the commitment to “ever closer union” did not apply to the UK had finally put to rest the assumption, common in Brussels, that all 28 members states would eventually join the Euro.
“He has had huge impact in the European Union,” concluded Mr Reinfeldt, “more than I think is recognised in Britain.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/anti-elite-sentiment-may-lead-to-brexit-warns-pms-best-friend/
---
Brexit: Julie Bishop tells British PM David Cameron change 'not in Australia's interests'
Posted Sat at 3:34pm
Photo: Julie Bishop met with David Cameron on the sidelines
of the Nuclear Security Summit. (Twitter: Julie Bishop)
Related Story: Berlin 'not amused' by consequences of potential Brexit
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-01/brexit's-consequences-for-trading-partner-germany/7211424
Map: Australia .. http://www.google.com/maps/place/Australia/@-26.000,134.500,5z
Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop has weighed in on the Brexit debate, telling the British Prime
Minister that it is in Australia's interests to see the UK remain part of the European Union.
Ms Bishop is currently in Washington DC for the Nuclear Security Summit, where world leaders
are discussing how to protect uranium and plutonium from falling into the hands of terrorists ..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-31/nuclear-summit-to-focus-on-protecting-material-from-terrorists/7286886 .
But in sideline talks with Prime Minister David Cameron, Ms Bishop's focus turned to Britain's uncertain future in the EU.
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to continue on as one of the union's 28 member states on June 23.
.. more .. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-02/bishop-tells-british-pm-'brexit-not-in-australia's-interests'/7294664
---
.. last one from the left, again an 'in' position just not so complimentary of David Cameron ..
David Cameron deserves to come out of the EU referendum with no credit
Polly Toynbee
Thursday 18 February 2016 07.45 EST
Since becoming Conservative leader in 2005, Cameron has taken every opportunity to undermine Europe. He ought to be ashamed of his actions
‘The “in” lobby talks often of the influence the UK holds as one of the big beasts of the EU: David Cameron will have greatly diminished it.’
‘The “in” lobby talks often of the influence the UK holds as one of the big beasts of the
EU: David Cameron will have greatly diminished it.’ Photograph: Srdjan Zivulovic/Reuters
[...]
Cameron enters the “in” campaign having spent his entire decade as party leader undermining support for it. He deserves to lose, but we have to hope to God he doesn’t. Under him, Britain has had next to nothing constructive to contribute to the EU’s troubles, riven and immobilised over the migration crisis, and by the euro’s weakness to which austerity was the wrong answer. Fumbling over Ukraine and Crimea, effective diplomacy in dealing with Putin still eludes the 28 nations. America, with its grotesque Republican candidates, looks a less sane superpower ally just now.
These are mighty issues, beside which the precise size of payment of child benefit to very few children of EU migrant workers is a mean-minded irrelevance to haggle over. So is his “emergency brake”, while Osborne’s bid to restrict EU regulation and taxation of our tax haven City is just squalid. As for resigning from an “ever closer union”, that looks peculiarly empty when the EU is pulling itself further apart.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/18/david-cameron-eu-referendum-no-credit-conservative-europe-ashamed
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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