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Friday, 04/01/2016 12:42:06 PM

Friday, April 01, 2016 12:42:06 PM

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Moodys on China downgrade; "However, their ( contingent liabilities) existence and increase in size reflect economic imbalances. In particular, high and rising SOE leverage raises the risk of either a sharp slowdown in economic growth, as debt servicing constrains other spending, or a marked deterioration of bank asset quality. Either of these developments could ultimately result in higher government debt and additional downward pressure on the government's credit profile.

In addition, government debt has risen markedly, to 40.6% of GDP at the end of 2015, according to our estimates, from 32.5% in 2012. We expect a further increase to 43.0% by 2017, consistent with an accommodative fiscal stance that will likely involve higher government spending and possible reductions in the overall tax burden.
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