Another discussion re: the F-R rule:
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annickawaechter • 18 hours ago
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AEZS will be worth at least $30/share acc. to the Adam Feuerstein biotech oncology rule
According to the AF biotech oncology rule, a biotech company which is in P3 should have a market cap of at least $300m if the phase 3 results of their oncology product is succesful.
According to AEZS investors' fact sheet, the company has - as of March 29 2016 - 9,9 million shares outstanding. In other words AEZS should be worth $30/share when the phase 3 result for Zoptrex is succesful and should be worth much more once FDA approved. And then I haven't talked about Macrilen.
Those are facts; pure fundamentals. You cannot deny them. AEZS is undervalued. Significantly undervalued. Less
Sentiment: Strong Buy
sargeantfury • 17 hours ago Flag
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Annicka, i guess thats a way to spin the rule, if you're nuts. First, the rule was developed by Dr. Ratain and Adam Fuerstein in combination, with the doctor being the major player and Fuerstein only a columnist. Secondly, the rule states that companies with a market cap less than $300 million several months before the release of trial results were 0-for-21, whereas companies with a market cap exceeding $1 billion were a respectable 21-for-27. The 21 for 27 successful trial results also holds true for caps of at least $500 million within 120 days of trial results according to the Sarge. The key point here is these high caps must be achieved several month before trial results in order for there to be a high success rate. The reason high caps are a good predictor of future success is that large companies realize the micro cap compound and they want to invest, acquire, or partner with the smaller company causing its price to spike well before expected reults.
Your problem is that you stated aezs should have a market cap of 300 Mil if the results are positive. That is totally false as aezs needs to achieve that market cap NOW, in order for the cap - success relationship to hold true. And you can take that to the bank, as i do everyday with this stock.
The Sarge has spoken.
For it is written, For it shall be done. Less
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(I have no shares)
AEZS
