Friday, April 01, 2016 9:12:17 AM
F-R rule shows a company with less than $300M market cap has never had a successful cancer Phase III. AEZS market cap is ~$10M.
Quoting from an article:
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The Feuerstein-Ratain Rule Update: Still Perfect Predicting Small-Cap Cancer Drug Failure
A market cap under $300 million forecasts phase III study failure.
"Sure. When Dr. Mark Ratain and I came up with the concept for the F-R Rule in 2011, we were limited to analyzing a data set of 59 phase III oncology clinical trials conducted between 2000 and 2009.
For the update, I asked the research staff at BioMedTracker to help me bridge the gap between the initial analysis and the present by compiling a new list of phase III oncology phase III studies conducted from 2009 through February 2014. BioMedTracker delivered to me a list of 72 oncology phase III trials.
-- Twenty-eight of the 72 studies were positive -- a success rate of 39%.
-- Forty-two studies were negative -- a failure rate of 58%. Results for two of the studies could not be determined.
Since that article there has been an exception:
Adam Feuerstein ?@adamfeuerstein Mar 15
$CPXX Surprises With Blood Cancer Drug Survival Benefit http://www.thestreet.com/story/13494703/1/celator-pharma-surprises-with-blood-cancer-drug-survival-benefit.html … A Feuerstein-Ratain Rule exception!
Can't believe anyone would use Feuerstein to support AEZS. If you follow his tweets you wil note that for approximately 4 years he has called AEZS Sxxx.
https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein
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(I have no shares)
AEZS
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