Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)

[pete807]

If they don't complete the deal by the end of March another and likely higher payout could be paid to unit holders hanging on for the option of $15 + .2986 WNR. My reasoning is based on the inventory adjustment they used to lower the payout for Q4. I was happy to get nearly $900 this month in spite of the dramatic drop from Q3... That said, I suspect they will work to keep as much cash funneled toward WNR as legally possible within MLP rules and company stated policy.
The share price has been buoyed heavily by the deal as both the other two MLP refiners are at 10 bucks with investors running for the exits and all refining margins down. However the high cost of shipping have made the export of crude at current levels not so attractive and the spread of WTI/Brent reflects the shipping.... maybe $3/bbl. We are not seeing a lot of crude exporting yet
I correctly guessed the impending deal holds NTI in the range it has been in since January and while I don't want to hold WNR for long, If I can't get all cash, it too could surprise investors when they see what the cash flow does to the new combined company.
Retail profits will continue to rise, crude could come up at least $10 and the new company key statistics could take WNR back to $40 later this year. Regardless I do not have to make any hasty decision on the last of my units, but will surely see them gone in 2016. I suspect if I hold through the deal I will realize $27 or better. I may have to accept a dividend from WNR!