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Why did the US really bomb Libya?
Tunisian police officers guard the entrance of the National Bardo Museum in Tunis, March 19, 2015. Tunisia deployed the army to major cities and arrested four people after militant gunmen killed at least 20 foreign tourists visiting the museum, the worst attack on the North African country in more than a decade. (photo by REUTERS/Anis Mili)
The Feb. 19 airstrike on an apparent Islamic State (IS) training camp near Sabratha isn’t the precursor to a sustained American air campaign in Libya, US officials have made clear.
Summary
Does the strike on a neighboring terrorist haven signal a new commitment to the Arab Spring’s golden child?
Author Julian Pecquet Posted February 19, 2016
Instead, the pre-dawn bombing that killed some 40 suspected terrorists near the border with Tunisia appears to be better understood as a one-off operation aimed at protecting that fledgling democracy from militants who would plunge it into chaos. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said the strike aimed to take out Tunisian national Noureddine Chouchane, a prime suspect in the 2015 attacks that killed 60 people in Tunis and Sousse, along with a camp where foreign fighters were training for possible “external attacks on US interests in the region.”
“I think this [attack] should be treated separately than the Libya issue,” said Christopher Chivvis, the associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation. “I think this has much more to do with Tunisia than it does with Libya.”
The “isolated compound” that was destroyed by F-15 jets and unmanned aircraft, he said, is “nothing like going after the thousands of [IS] fighters” present in their Libyan stronghold of Sirte, hundreds of miles to the east.
“Obviously the United States is concerned about the stability of Tunisia .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/tunisia-terrorist-attack-islamic-state-threat.html .. and the impact that the terrorist attacks that took place last year can have on the Tunisia political system, which still remains the one shining light from the 2011 Arab uprisings,” Chivvis told Al-Monitor. “There are certainly a lot of countries that are interested in doing what we can to strengthen security in Tunisia, and this was an obvious attempt to step in that direction.”
One such country is Great Britain, which lost 30 of its citizens in the Sousse beach hotel attack in June 2015. British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said he authorized US jets to use a British base to launch the attack.
"I welcome this strike that has taken out a Daesh training camp .. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/12164765/US-warplanes-strike-Isil-camp-in-Libya-targeting-Tunisia-terror-attacks-militant.html .. being used to train terrorists to carry out attacks,” Fallon told reporters. “I was satisfied that its destruction makes us all safer, and I personally authorized the US use of our bases.”
The Tunisian Embassy in Washington did not have an immediate reaction, but Tunis in the past has expressed concern about Sabratha’s emergence as a base for the Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia .. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/world/middleeast/us-airstrike-isis-libya.html , according to The New York Times. Tellingly, reports from the ground said the US strikes killed dozens .. https://www.libyaherald.com/2016/02/19/breaking-news-40-dead-in-sabratha-air-strikes/ .. of Tunisians and Algerians, but apparently no Libyans, suggesting that the destroyed camp may have been used to train recruits to fight elsewhere in North Africa .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/03/libya-isis-control-algeria-egypt-tunisia-impact.html .. as well as in Europe.
With thousands of young, disaffected Tunisians flocking to IS and similar groups, the United States and Tunisia have been rapidly expanding their counterterrorism cooperation. The Obama administration designated Tunisia as a major non-NATO ally .. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/07/244811.htm .. eligible for enhanced military assistance during President Caid Essebsi’s visit last year, and US equipment will help monitor a newly completed “obstacle system” .. http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2016/02/06/97001-20160206FILWWW00188-tunisie-la-frontiere-avec-la-libye-renforcee.php .. along the border with Libya.
Hawkish lawmakers in Congress have been pushing the administration to open another front against IS in Libya .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2016/01/libya-terrorism-chaos-consensus-government.html , which National Intelligence Director James Clapper described as the terror group’s fastest-growing affiliate in testimony to Congress earlier this month.
“We hope today’s airstrikes signal the beginning of a new commitment by the Obama administration to put Libya at the center of a comprehensive strategy to defeat international jihadism,” House Intelligence panel Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said in a statement.
That’s unlikely to happen, however.
Obama has turned down recommendations .. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/18/exclusive-obama-refuses-to-hit-isis-s-libyan-capital.html .. from several defense officials to target Sirte, the Daily Beast reported this week, preferring to first focus on settling the political crisis in Libya that has fueled the rise of the IS affiliate and other militant groups. And US officials did not contradict the impression that the Feb. 19 attack was anything more than a strike of opportunity against a dangerous terrorist leader. “The parent tumor of [IS] is in Iraq and Syria, and that remains the primary focus for us," Cook told reporters at the Pentagon when pressed about whether the Sabratha strike represented a new chapter in the US campaign against IS .. http://thehill.com/policy/defense/270024-pentagon-isis-terrorists-in-libya-planning-external-attacks-against-us .. in Libya. "As we see [IS] metastasize and spread to other parts of the world, we're going to continue to keep a very close eye on it, and when we feel the need to strike, we'll be prepared to do so using all of the tools at our disposal and obviously also working with our coalition partners. .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/us-bomb-libya-tunisia-isis-arab-spring.html
===
Will aid deliveries to Syria help advance peace talks?
WASHINGTON — The United States and Russia will meet in Geneva on Feb. 19 for consultations on how to implement a Syria truce, as UN aid agencies said they were able to deliver 100 trucks of humanitarian aid to five besieged Syrian towns, in what the United States called a “step forward.”
[...]
“The Geneva talks [are] set to begin again … between the opposition and regime next week, having some concrete progress to point to on the ground, whether with regard to cessation of hostilities or access to besieged areas,” Toner said.
But US officials and regional experts were cautious about prospects for a partial cease-fire to get off the ground, with the regime and its backers pursuing what they described as a strategy to seal off the Turkish-Syrian border and encircle Aleppo.
“Look, I really think the regime now and its allies … want to get to the Turkish border and encircle Aleppo and regain control of Aleppo,” Randa Slim, who heads Track 2 programs at the Middle East Institute, told Al-Monitor. “Part of their campaign is to drive a wedge between the local population and the opposition.”
Former State Department Syria adviser Fred Hof said the US strategy on Syria was largely dependent on the goodwill of Russia to deliver the Assad regime.
“I imagine John Kerry will try to keep the ball rolling process-wise,” Hof, now with the Atlantic Council, told al-Monitor. “What else does he have? In terms of getting the opposition back to Geneva he has a prayer if there's genuine progress on the humanitarian front, particularly with respect to sieges. But … he is totally dependent on the goodwill, decency and compassion of Russia's president, Iran's supreme leader, and Syria's barrel-bomber-in-chief. Let's hope he's the most persuasive human being alive.”
Syrian opposition activists said the Russian strategy on the ground appeared to be to continue to decimate more moderate opposition groups and have Kurdish allies and pro-regime forces on the front lines with IS in order to eventually get the international community to work with regime forces to fight IS.
“On the ground today, it’s very clear. The Russians are killing everyone,” Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat in Washington who supports the opposition, told Al-Monitor on Feb. 17. “The Russians … are looking these days to block any Syrian moderate forces to be on the border with Daesh.”
“They want the regime and Kurds to be face to face with [IS],” Barabandi said. “Because when the regime faces [IS] on all fronts, the opposition loses benefits and needs support. All the moderate military guys go for a cease-fire, stay at home. … And then the Russians tell the international community, work with the Syrian regime, to re-legitimize him.”
The United States and Russia, meantime, traded barbs over who is responsible for securing a cease-fire.
"It's put up or shut up," Toner said Feb. 16 on whether Russia would deliver on its Syria cease-fire promises.
"Everything depends on the Americans, on whether they will be ready to cooperate on a military level," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists Feb. 17.
Laura Rozen reports on foreign policy from Washington, DC, for Al-Monitor's Back Channel.
She has written for Yahoo! News, Politico and Foreign Policy. On Twitter: @LRozen
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/syria-russia-usa-truce-talks-geneva-humanitarian-aid.html
===
Why did the US really bomb Libya?
Tunisian police officers guard the entrance of the National Bardo Museum in Tunis, March 19, 2015. Tunisia deployed the army to major cities and arrested four people after militant gunmen killed at least 20 foreign tourists visiting the museum, the worst attack on the North African country in more than a decade. (photo by REUTERS/Anis Mili)
The Feb. 19 airstrike on an apparent Islamic State (IS) training camp near Sabratha isn’t the precursor to a sustained American air campaign in Libya, US officials have made clear.
Summary
Does the strike on a neighboring terrorist haven signal a new commitment to the Arab Spring’s golden child?
Author Julian Pecquet Posted February 19, 2016
Instead, the pre-dawn bombing that killed some 40 suspected terrorists near the border with Tunisia appears to be better understood as a one-off operation aimed at protecting that fledgling democracy from militants who would plunge it into chaos. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said the strike aimed to take out Tunisian national Noureddine Chouchane, a prime suspect in the 2015 attacks that killed 60 people in Tunis and Sousse, along with a camp where foreign fighters were training for possible “external attacks on US interests in the region.”
“I think this [attack] should be treated separately than the Libya issue,” said Christopher Chivvis, the associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation. “I think this has much more to do with Tunisia than it does with Libya.”
The “isolated compound” that was destroyed by F-15 jets and unmanned aircraft, he said, is “nothing like going after the thousands of [IS] fighters” present in their Libyan stronghold of Sirte, hundreds of miles to the east.
“Obviously the United States is concerned about the stability of Tunisia .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/tunisia-terrorist-attack-islamic-state-threat.html .. and the impact that the terrorist attacks that took place last year can have on the Tunisia political system, which still remains the one shining light from the 2011 Arab uprisings,” Chivvis told Al-Monitor. “There are certainly a lot of countries that are interested in doing what we can to strengthen security in Tunisia, and this was an obvious attempt to step in that direction.”
One such country is Great Britain, which lost 30 of its citizens in the Sousse beach hotel attack in June 2015. British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said he authorized US jets to use a British base to launch the attack.
"I welcome this strike that has taken out a Daesh training camp .. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/12164765/US-warplanes-strike-Isil-camp-in-Libya-targeting-Tunisia-terror-attacks-militant.html .. being used to train terrorists to carry out attacks,” Fallon told reporters. “I was satisfied that its destruction makes us all safer, and I personally authorized the US use of our bases.”
The Tunisian Embassy in Washington did not have an immediate reaction, but Tunis in the past has expressed concern about Sabratha’s emergence as a base for the Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia .. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/world/middleeast/us-airstrike-isis-libya.html , according to The New York Times. Tellingly, reports from the ground said the US strikes killed dozens .. https://www.libyaherald.com/2016/02/19/breaking-news-40-dead-in-sabratha-air-strikes/ .. of Tunisians and Algerians, but apparently no Libyans, suggesting that the destroyed camp may have been used to train recruits to fight elsewhere in North Africa .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/03/libya-isis-control-algeria-egypt-tunisia-impact.html .. as well as in Europe.
With thousands of young, disaffected Tunisians flocking to IS and similar groups, the United States and Tunisia have been rapidly expanding their counterterrorism cooperation. The Obama administration designated Tunisia as a major non-NATO ally .. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/07/244811.htm .. eligible for enhanced military assistance during President Caid Essebsi’s visit last year, and US equipment will help monitor a newly completed “obstacle system” .. http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2016/02/06/97001-20160206FILWWW00188-tunisie-la-frontiere-avec-la-libye-renforcee.php .. along the border with Libya.
Hawkish lawmakers in Congress have been pushing the administration to open another front against IS in Libya .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2016/01/libya-terrorism-chaos-consensus-government.html , which National Intelligence Director James Clapper described as the terror group’s fastest-growing affiliate in testimony to Congress earlier this month.
“We hope today’s airstrikes signal the beginning of a new commitment by the Obama administration to put Libya at the center of a comprehensive strategy to defeat international jihadism,” House Intelligence panel Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said in a statement.
That’s unlikely to happen, however.
Obama has turned down recommendations .. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/18/exclusive-obama-refuses-to-hit-isis-s-libyan-capital.html .. from several defense officials to target Sirte, the Daily Beast reported this week, preferring to first focus on settling the political crisis in Libya that has fueled the rise of the IS affiliate and other militant groups. And US officials did not contradict the impression that the Feb. 19 attack was anything more than a strike of opportunity against a dangerous terrorist leader. “The parent tumor of [IS] is in Iraq and Syria, and that remains the primary focus for us," Cook told reporters at the Pentagon when pressed about whether the Sabratha strike represented a new chapter in the US campaign against IS .. http://thehill.com/policy/defense/270024-pentagon-isis-terrorists-in-libya-planning-external-attacks-against-us .. in Libya. "As we see [IS] metastasize and spread to other parts of the world, we're going to continue to keep a very close eye on it, and when we feel the need to strike, we'll be prepared to do so using all of the tools at our disposal and obviously also working with our coalition partners. .. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/us-bomb-libya-tunisia-isis-arab-spring.html
===
Will aid deliveries to Syria help advance peace talks?
WASHINGTON — The United States and Russia will meet in Geneva on Feb. 19 for consultations on how to implement a Syria truce, as UN aid agencies said they were able to deliver 100 trucks of humanitarian aid to five besieged Syrian towns, in what the United States called a “step forward.”
[...]
“The Geneva talks [are] set to begin again … between the opposition and regime next week, having some concrete progress to point to on the ground, whether with regard to cessation of hostilities or access to besieged areas,” Toner said.
But US officials and regional experts were cautious about prospects for a partial cease-fire to get off the ground, with the regime and its backers pursuing what they described as a strategy to seal off the Turkish-Syrian border and encircle Aleppo.
“Look, I really think the regime now and its allies … want to get to the Turkish border and encircle Aleppo and regain control of Aleppo,” Randa Slim, who heads Track 2 programs at the Middle East Institute, told Al-Monitor. “Part of their campaign is to drive a wedge between the local population and the opposition.”
Former State Department Syria adviser Fred Hof said the US strategy on Syria was largely dependent on the goodwill of Russia to deliver the Assad regime.
“I imagine John Kerry will try to keep the ball rolling process-wise,” Hof, now with the Atlantic Council, told al-Monitor. “What else does he have? In terms of getting the opposition back to Geneva he has a prayer if there's genuine progress on the humanitarian front, particularly with respect to sieges. But … he is totally dependent on the goodwill, decency and compassion of Russia's president, Iran's supreme leader, and Syria's barrel-bomber-in-chief. Let's hope he's the most persuasive human being alive.”
Syrian opposition activists said the Russian strategy on the ground appeared to be to continue to decimate more moderate opposition groups and have Kurdish allies and pro-regime forces on the front lines with IS in order to eventually get the international community to work with regime forces to fight IS.
“On the ground today, it’s very clear. The Russians are killing everyone,” Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat in Washington who supports the opposition, told Al-Monitor on Feb. 17. “The Russians … are looking these days to block any Syrian moderate forces to be on the border with Daesh.”
“They want the regime and Kurds to be face to face with [IS],” Barabandi said. “Because when the regime faces [IS] on all fronts, the opposition loses benefits and needs support. All the moderate military guys go for a cease-fire, stay at home. … And then the Russians tell the international community, work with the Syrian regime, to re-legitimize him.”
The United States and Russia, meantime, traded barbs over who is responsible for securing a cease-fire.
"It's put up or shut up," Toner said Feb. 16 on whether Russia would deliver on its Syria cease-fire promises.
"Everything depends on the Americans, on whether they will be ready to cooperate on a military level," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists Feb. 17.
Laura Rozen reports on foreign policy from Washington, DC, for Al-Monitor's Back Channel.
She has written for Yahoo! News, Politico and Foreign Policy. On Twitter: @LRozen
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/syria-russia-usa-truce-talks-geneva-humanitarian-aid.html
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