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Thursday, 02/18/2016 2:56:48 PM

Thursday, February 18, 2016 2:56:48 PM

Post# of 2188
I'm still sitting out. Watching and waiting.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/longtime-bull-turned-bear-says-sp-500-could-tumble-341-2016-02-18?link=MW_popular

Stack calculated that would mean a total decline of 34.1% from the S&P 500’s all-time high of about 2,130 last May, bringing the benchmark index back down to around 1,400. Without a recession, he estimated, the bear would be “relatively contained” — a decline of around 25% or so.

But it also could last much longer than investors expect — 18 months to two years, as bear markets did in the late 1960s and early 1970s. He believes this one actually started in late October, not at last May’s peak, so we may have a long way to go.

Finally, he warned investors that big rallies of the kind we’ve seen over the past few days are typical of bear markets.

“Bear markets can last very long and they can be very deceiving as they unfold, creating rallies like we saw on Friday and [this week] and basically convince you that it’s all clear,” he said.

“This is not the time to be bottom fishing, trying to call the absolute market bottom, because chances are we’re not close to that yet.”


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