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We asked 6 political scientists if Bernie Sanders would have a shot in a general election

"those polls now are absolute bullshit, worse than meaningless .. Got something better?"

Updated by Jeff Stein on February 5, 2016, 3:00 p.m. ET

[...]

Why those head-to-head general election polls are "absolutely worthless"

In defense of their candidate's electability, Sanders supporters have often turned to general election polls that show him doing well in head-to-head matchups with potential Republicans.

Sanders himself has recently embraced this argument, telling ABC News that he was the most electable candidate in part because of a poll showing him beating Donald Trump in a general election.

"Take a look at recent polls in which Bernie Sanders is matched with Republican candidates Trump on down [and] Hillary Clinton is matched with Republican candidates," he said .. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-democrats-electable-presidential-candidate/story?id=36194723 .

But it's regarded as blindingly obvious among political scientists that these findings are essentially illusory, and that general election polls this far out are about as predictive now as a weather forecast for Election Day.

"The impressions people have of the eventual nominees months from now will be so different from today," said McKee, the Texas Tech professor. "That's a nice thing to point to, but what does a head-to-head poll mean in early February? ... It's worthless. It's absolutely worthless."

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/5/10923304/bernie-sanders-general-election

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