Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[golfho]

CP...

BUT IN BOTH CASES based on ZERO Bavi arm events which again I find quite unrealistic. But with your 420 we still have a chance :) because if the look-in would be announced BEFORE 27th March 2016 and assuming Herbst. et al, 2010 was a correct basis for this simulation, then I can read from my table how many Bavi events contributed to the total of 154 events (approximately but close).

If PPHM would announce TODAY that the look-in took place yesterday (for instance) than using your 420 for Herbst we would have:

138 CTRL ARM events
16 BAVI ARM events

I get dizzy by just thinking about that possibility.

Now…

We (You, Tradero and I) are arriving at the same conclusion. All three of us, in different ways arrived at very similar projections. My projection for a MOS of 10 would yield ~140-141 events today…!!! My projections are not as fine grained as your, you are using days vs. weekly in mine. So a difference of only 2 or 3 events, in my view is well within an acceptable margin of error.


138 CTRL ARM events vs. ~140-141 is good enough for me…!!!

NOTE:

16 or 14 BAVI ARM events would project an MOS of >17…

Which brings me back to my IF statement of a few weeks ago.

IF there are ~ 138 - 141 events in the control group and ~ 16 – 13 events in the Bavi + arm…

How could that NOT be statistically significant?

Where’s FTM when you need him…!!!

Regards
golfho