Well, I don't know about established, but just trying to wrap my head around the logic.
Well designed concept and product
Demonstrated need, globally
Positioned with potential contracts and contacts to deliver promise
However, market valuations tanked rapidly from sustained 20-40 million valuations to a mere 300k today. Speculating as to what caused this.... Probably not lack of desire, or change in need, I think the puzzle pieces spell out delay.
ITD discussed candidly this 55,000 sq ft. mobile hospital in the recent article. I think we can extrapolate/speculate that some part of the negotiation/complexity in rolling out this holistic system there came to a conclusion that a hospital would be required first in order to tie in the remote 2500 +/- sq ft. clinics and medical units. In my mind this seems logical.
How would this type of requirement change the ITD/Kallo relationship? The obvious first item would be capacity to handle this size of project and piece together all the complex components for confirmative demonstration. More floorspace, more financial commitment, much more time would be needed to demonstrate this ITD/Kallo relationship could execute on a huge global project, with significant dollars attached.
Speculating a few possible items here. Financiers seeing that delay would be many quarters out, probably decided to take some risk off the table and start selling convertibles. Additionally, the company likely was not positioned to counter this and uncertainty reigns. Will they ultimately get a deal signed? Uncertain is a clear answer especially dealing on an international stage.
Now with uncertainty, also comes opportunity. IMO, the new or "maybe new" ITD facility would seem ripe for a Kallo/ITD JV of sorts. Equity in a project with rapidly rising valuation would incentivize all parties and stakeholders, especially if initial financial and capacity requirements are much higher and requires more risk capital.
Unfortunately, early shareholders are wiped out from this dilution and hurdles that must be overcome. IMO.
I think the risk remains that there are significant time and complexity hurdles that need overcome (may never be overcome), which forces significant dilution of equity to maintain the company making efforts.
The opportunity is that even if they must double or triple the 3 billion OS, a final acceptance and release of funds from one of these large contracts will be a company making moment. In this case, likely emerging out to something like a 50-80 million +/- valuation, with more potential in all other African nations.
Definite risk... Definite reward possibility
Thoughts on this speculative thesis? I've got $1000 worth here as it seems a reasonable speculation. Good luck to all.
