Hi Adam,
I agree.
On the Philly Housing Index chart it appears that it went from almost 300 in 2005 during the housing bubble down to around 50 in 2009. That is one large decline. Of course, housing bubbles usually don't occur with any frequency. I am 74 and I am aware of only one national and global bubble in my lifetime. Usually housing bubbles are more of a local thing than a national or global thing.
Then again, the index also went from around 50 in 2009 to around 250 last year. Guess, as they say, "timing is everything". Maybe someone who loaded up on housing stocks at the peak in 2005 did okay if they followed a method like Ocroft uses, or a moving average crossover, or something similar to make their indicated purchases on market declines.
This is why I like AIM since I don't have to have perfect market timing to have some success in making AIM indicated purchases.
Best regards,
Ray
