Monday, December 28, 2015 6:06:50 PM
The Dunning-Kruger Effect Illustrated: The Stupid do not Know that They are Stupid.
The Dunning-Kruger effect comes out of research conducted by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University since 1999. I have not seen any diaries here about it, but it is surprising how often it is a propos to our discussions here. I hope to make it a major tool in our explanatory toolkit.
Over the years, Dunning and Kruger have conducted studies over a wide range of cognitive tasks. Following the skill assessment, subjects are shown their results, and then asked to rate their performance on a percentile basis. What they have found is that those performing well — say, 65th %ile and higher — exhibit a quite accurate assessment of where they placed, while those who do more poorly are unaware of their own poor performance. In fact, those who do quite badly, say at the 15th %ile, tend to overestimate their relative skill by 50% or more.
A way to summarize these results is to say that those who are truly stupid are too stupid to realize that they are stupid. As Dunning has put it, slightly less colorfully:
If you're incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent.… [T]he skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is.
This explains quite a lot about our world, especially about the limitations on our ability to propagate a reality-based worldview. It explains nearly the whole phenomenon of Fox News and its viewers.
I came up with a remarkable confirmation of the Dunning-Kruger effect today on Facebook. I’ve blocked out last names except mine.
My friend Kevin posted some negative remarks about Trump, just above the screen capture shown. His friend Charlie wrote… well, what you see above. I added my comment.
Charlie actually LIKED my comment! He is, apparently, entirely oblivious to my mockery, and appreciative of my compliment.
Charlie could be the face, and voice, of about half of the Republican Party. How do you reason with such a person? How can we use logic or even facts, when as we have seen over half of Republicans profess to believe that there were thousands and thousands of people in New Jersey cheering as the towers came down — in the utter absence of any evidence — just because their hero told them so?
The answer of course is that we can’t. I am reminded of an episode during the Bush-Gore debates in 2000 where Gore made a rather detailed economic point involving actual numbers, which Bush dismissed as “fuzzy math”, without any more detailed refutation than that. I still remember the stricken look on Gore’s face as he realized that he had just lost that round to a two-word sound bite, which won W the votes of everyone listening who had ever failed high school algebra.
So what DO we do? George Lakoff told us years ago (Don’t Think of an Elephant; Moral Politics) that we must appeal to voters based on their values, not facts, policies, or programs. He’s still right. The above exchange is part of the reason he is right. Only part, in that smart people can allow their values to trump (so to speak) what they know as well as stupid people can. However, in today’s polarized and ghettoized media landscape, where we have the option of listening only to those who confirm our biases, how do we even make a values-based appeal to the other side?
There are precious few opportunities. This is why I believe that the limited number of Democratic primary debates is so short-sighted. The perception is that more debates would, or might, help Bernie. Maybe, maybe not. However, more debates would CERTAINLY help the Democratic brand and get our values across to the American people, at least those who remain the least bit open to such an appeal.
For Charlie and his ilk, deluded, angry, impotent and profoundly stupid, I have no hope.
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/27/1464111/-The-Dunning-Kruger-Effect-Illustrated-The-Stupid-do-not-Know-that-They-are-Stupid
The Dunning-Kruger effect comes out of research conducted by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University since 1999. I have not seen any diaries here about it, but it is surprising how often it is a propos to our discussions here. I hope to make it a major tool in our explanatory toolkit.
Over the years, Dunning and Kruger have conducted studies over a wide range of cognitive tasks. Following the skill assessment, subjects are shown their results, and then asked to rate their performance on a percentile basis. What they have found is that those performing well — say, 65th %ile and higher — exhibit a quite accurate assessment of where they placed, while those who do more poorly are unaware of their own poor performance. In fact, those who do quite badly, say at the 15th %ile, tend to overestimate their relative skill by 50% or more.
A way to summarize these results is to say that those who are truly stupid are too stupid to realize that they are stupid. As Dunning has put it, slightly less colorfully:
If you're incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent.… [T]he skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is.
This explains quite a lot about our world, especially about the limitations on our ability to propagate a reality-based worldview. It explains nearly the whole phenomenon of Fox News and its viewers.
I came up with a remarkable confirmation of the Dunning-Kruger effect today on Facebook. I’ve blocked out last names except mine.
My friend Kevin posted some negative remarks about Trump, just above the screen capture shown. His friend Charlie wrote… well, what you see above. I added my comment.
Charlie actually LIKED my comment! He is, apparently, entirely oblivious to my mockery, and appreciative of my compliment.
Charlie could be the face, and voice, of about half of the Republican Party. How do you reason with such a person? How can we use logic or even facts, when as we have seen over half of Republicans profess to believe that there were thousands and thousands of people in New Jersey cheering as the towers came down — in the utter absence of any evidence — just because their hero told them so?
The answer of course is that we can’t. I am reminded of an episode during the Bush-Gore debates in 2000 where Gore made a rather detailed economic point involving actual numbers, which Bush dismissed as “fuzzy math”, without any more detailed refutation than that. I still remember the stricken look on Gore’s face as he realized that he had just lost that round to a two-word sound bite, which won W the votes of everyone listening who had ever failed high school algebra.
So what DO we do? George Lakoff told us years ago (Don’t Think of an Elephant; Moral Politics) that we must appeal to voters based on their values, not facts, policies, or programs. He’s still right. The above exchange is part of the reason he is right. Only part, in that smart people can allow their values to trump (so to speak) what they know as well as stupid people can. However, in today’s polarized and ghettoized media landscape, where we have the option of listening only to those who confirm our biases, how do we even make a values-based appeal to the other side?
There are precious few opportunities. This is why I believe that the limited number of Democratic primary debates is so short-sighted. The perception is that more debates would, or might, help Bernie. Maybe, maybe not. However, more debates would CERTAINLY help the Democratic brand and get our values across to the American people, at least those who remain the least bit open to such an appeal.
For Charlie and his ilk, deluded, angry, impotent and profoundly stupid, I have no hope.
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/27/1464111/-The-Dunning-Kruger-Effect-Illustrated-The-Stupid-do-not-Know-that-They-are-Stupid
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