Price depends on how market is willigng to include/anticipate all factors and with the help from Hedges Funds. Completely manipulated commodity market... we did hear oil to 200 when it was near 140 . Now as it is low 34-35 we have heard oil to 20$ . Substract the 2 extremes , then i know i am betting now for the upside . just me :) Merry Christmas !!!!!