Wednesday, December 16, 2015 3:31:48 PM
French elections: seven regions for centre right, none for Front National – as it happened
Marine Le Pen’s party defeated by tactical voting and an increase in turnout after record showing in first round
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/dec/13/french-regional-elections-2015-live
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France’s far-right National Front loses a round, but they will be back
Tactical manoeuvring by the mainstream left and right blocks Marine Le Pen from winning regional elections
Dec 13th 2015 | PARIS | Europe
THERE was widespread relief among mainstream voters in France this evening, after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front (FN) failed to score a single victory at elections to the country’s 13 regions. Her party shook France a week ago by topping voting nationally in the first round. The FN had looked especially likely to win in either the north, where Ms Le Pen (pictured) was running, or the south, where her 26-year-old niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen was the candidate. In the end, neither could summon a majority. But they were defeated only after the left pulled out and urged its supporters to vote for centre-right candidates in a last-ditch effort to block the FN from gaining power.
Exit polls suggested that, of the two Le Pen candidates, Ms Maréchal-Le Pen pulled off the better result. She secured 44% of the vote in the south, losing to Christian Estrosi, a former centre-right minister. In the north, Ms Le Pen won 42%, a couple of points better than she managed in the first round, but not enough to defeat her centre-right opponent Xavier Bertrand, another ex-minister.
Three early lessons can be drawn from the results. The first is that the French Socialists’ strategy for countering the far right, a challenge for many mainstream parties across Europe, has paid off. Manuel Valls, the Socialist prime minister, ordered his party’s candidates in three regions to withdraw. (One refused.) Mr Valls mixed this tactical move with unapologetic scaremongering, warning the French that “civil war” would break out should the FN win.
Robbed of a Socialist candidate, bewildered left-wing supporters could either stay at home—or hold their noses and vote for the centre-right in order to block a Le Pen. The fact that national voter turn-out, at 59%, was much higher than in the first round, suggests that lots of anti-FN voters chose the latter. Unlike in much of continental Europe, French party politics has long been a confrontation between left and right. Now, some political figures, including Mr Valls, are hinting that this sort of tactical switch could force a realignment of mainstream parties in order to block out the FN in the future.
A second lesson from these results is that the governing Socialists look stronger in France than they have for a long time. The left, which had governed every region but one, hung on to five—fewer than the seven won by the centre-right Republicans, under Nicolas Sarkozy, but better than expected. (One region, Corsica, was won by local nationalists.) This makes it almost certain that President François Hollande will run again in the next presidential election, in 2017. Before the Paris terrorist attacks on November 13th, Mr Hollande had beaten all records as the most unpopular president since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958. In recent weeks, however, he has emerged as a more statesmanlike figure. He will be further boosted by the deal reached at the Paris climate talks on Saturday, and by the regional vote today.
The centre-right had its best result in Ile-de-France, the region around Paris, which it won back from the left. By contrast, the overall result was a blow. Some in the party were dismayed by Mr Sarkozy’s decision not to employ the same tactics as the Socialists. By refusing to pull candidates out in favour of the left, they argue, he handed them the moral high ground. There will now be tough questions about Mr Sarkozy’s ability to lead the opposition, which holds its own presidential primary next year.
The final lesson concerns the rise of the FN itself. Ms Le Pen will be disappointed with this result. The party had momentum, novelty value and popular disaffection with mainstream politics on its side. It declared itself the “first party in France” after first-round results last week, and had hoped by winning a region to prove to the sceptics that it was not just a protest movement but a party capable of governing.
Yet complacency about the FN in the face of these results would be a mistake. The party lost in the north and the south because of Socialist tactics; had this not happened, victory was within its grasp. In both the north and the south, the FN’s share of the vote was higher in the second round than in the first, though not high enough for a majority. And, with 28% and first place in the first round, the party has still pulled off its best-ever national result. Most importantly, Ms Le Pen can now play on a sense of victimhood—the ganging up of the mainstream parties against her. On Sunday night she spoke of a “campaign of calumnies and defamation decided in the gilded palaces of the Republic”. This will help her build support for the presidential election in 2017. The FN has lost this battle, but its political rise is far from over.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21683995-tactical-manoeuvring-mainstream-left-and-right-blocks-marine-le-pen-winning-regional
See also:
The GOP on the Eve of Destruction
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119029379
FNN: Donald Trump Rally Fort Dodge, Iowa Nov. 12
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118748954
Marine Le Pen’s party defeated by tactical voting and an increase in turnout after record showing in first round
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/dec/13/french-regional-elections-2015-live
===
France’s far-right National Front loses a round, but they will be back
Tactical manoeuvring by the mainstream left and right blocks Marine Le Pen from winning regional elections
Dec 13th 2015 | PARIS | Europe
THERE was widespread relief among mainstream voters in France this evening, after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front (FN) failed to score a single victory at elections to the country’s 13 regions. Her party shook France a week ago by topping voting nationally in the first round. The FN had looked especially likely to win in either the north, where Ms Le Pen (pictured) was running, or the south, where her 26-year-old niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen was the candidate. In the end, neither could summon a majority. But they were defeated only after the left pulled out and urged its supporters to vote for centre-right candidates in a last-ditch effort to block the FN from gaining power.
Exit polls suggested that, of the two Le Pen candidates, Ms Maréchal-Le Pen pulled off the better result. She secured 44% of the vote in the south, losing to Christian Estrosi, a former centre-right minister. In the north, Ms Le Pen won 42%, a couple of points better than she managed in the first round, but not enough to defeat her centre-right opponent Xavier Bertrand, another ex-minister.
Three early lessons can be drawn from the results. The first is that the French Socialists’ strategy for countering the far right, a challenge for many mainstream parties across Europe, has paid off. Manuel Valls, the Socialist prime minister, ordered his party’s candidates in three regions to withdraw. (One refused.) Mr Valls mixed this tactical move with unapologetic scaremongering, warning the French that “civil war” would break out should the FN win.
Robbed of a Socialist candidate, bewildered left-wing supporters could either stay at home—or hold their noses and vote for the centre-right in order to block a Le Pen. The fact that national voter turn-out, at 59%, was much higher than in the first round, suggests that lots of anti-FN voters chose the latter. Unlike in much of continental Europe, French party politics has long been a confrontation between left and right. Now, some political figures, including Mr Valls, are hinting that this sort of tactical switch could force a realignment of mainstream parties in order to block out the FN in the future.
A second lesson from these results is that the governing Socialists look stronger in France than they have for a long time. The left, which had governed every region but one, hung on to five—fewer than the seven won by the centre-right Republicans, under Nicolas Sarkozy, but better than expected. (One region, Corsica, was won by local nationalists.) This makes it almost certain that President François Hollande will run again in the next presidential election, in 2017. Before the Paris terrorist attacks on November 13th, Mr Hollande had beaten all records as the most unpopular president since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958. In recent weeks, however, he has emerged as a more statesmanlike figure. He will be further boosted by the deal reached at the Paris climate talks on Saturday, and by the regional vote today.
The centre-right had its best result in Ile-de-France, the region around Paris, which it won back from the left. By contrast, the overall result was a blow. Some in the party were dismayed by Mr Sarkozy’s decision not to employ the same tactics as the Socialists. By refusing to pull candidates out in favour of the left, they argue, he handed them the moral high ground. There will now be tough questions about Mr Sarkozy’s ability to lead the opposition, which holds its own presidential primary next year.
The final lesson concerns the rise of the FN itself. Ms Le Pen will be disappointed with this result. The party had momentum, novelty value and popular disaffection with mainstream politics on its side. It declared itself the “first party in France” after first-round results last week, and had hoped by winning a region to prove to the sceptics that it was not just a protest movement but a party capable of governing.
Yet complacency about the FN in the face of these results would be a mistake. The party lost in the north and the south because of Socialist tactics; had this not happened, victory was within its grasp. In both the north and the south, the FN’s share of the vote was higher in the second round than in the first, though not high enough for a majority. And, with 28% and first place in the first round, the party has still pulled off its best-ever national result. Most importantly, Ms Le Pen can now play on a sense of victimhood—the ganging up of the mainstream parties against her. On Sunday night she spoke of a “campaign of calumnies and defamation decided in the gilded palaces of the Republic”. This will help her build support for the presidential election in 2017. The FN has lost this battle, but its political rise is far from over.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21683995-tactical-manoeuvring-mainstream-left-and-right-blocks-marine-le-pen-winning-regional
See also:
The GOP on the Eve of Destruction
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119029379
FNN: Donald Trump Rally Fort Dodge, Iowa Nov. 12
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118748954
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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