Marker Therapeutics Inc (MRKR)

[Sugarshaker]

It's been awhile. My original DD on the company can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/3am71m/tpiv_dd_an_analysis_of_tapimmunes_share_price_and/
Which was an add-on to Jbem777's DD which can be found here: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=113527205

Background: A lot has changed for TapImmune over the last 5 months. They've officially entered Phase II for Ovarian/Triple Negative Breast Cancer. Many, many warrants have been exercised, and the exercise date for the dreaded 10 cent warrants that Kenneth Dart (the largest shareholder, and billionaire activist investor) received has passed.
The company is on the verge of a breakout year in 2016 - where we finally see the true valuation of the company. And it all starts with the load of catalysts that will all be happening this month and January. As such, I have bought back into the company and intend to hold for the next few months.
5 months ago, the company was way over hyped. It went from a price of .22 cents to $1.81 in less than two months. So it needed to fall to more realistic levels, where it currently stands at .60. Now the company is on the verge of several milestones/catalysts. So it's time for the company to appreciate again. Given a normal biotech evaluation, the company should have a market cap of 100-200 million as Tapimmune will shortly be a complete phase 2 company targeting a multi-billion cancer indication, with a commercial product that will be 90% cheaper than their closest competitors.
The company's technology was also given a 13 million dollar grant for a phase 2 study by the U.S Department of Defense. TapImmune will be doing their own phase 2 study and comparing data with the DoD. This kind of grant from the Department of Defense is extremely rare. Usually the DoD does $500,000 - $1,000,000 grants, so it goes to show you how valued TapImmune's technology is.

Catalysts:
There are four catalysts in the next 60 days that, upon successfully hitting every one of them, should mean very healthy gains for the company's investors:
FDA confirmation of Orphan status for ovarian and triple negative breast cancer (December-January)
HER2 negative abstract (December)
Announcement of Ovarian cancer phase 2 partnership with a big pharma company (December)
Phase 2 enrollment for Triple negative / Ovarian (Q1)
If any one of these catalysts hits, it means good money made. If two of these catalysts hit close together, it's a jackpot.
Why is it a jackpot, you ask? Why wouldn't investor confidence just drop off past $1? Here are three reasons why investor confidence should push this stock into a 200 million market cap:
The company's closest competitors have a much higher market cap and inferior medicine: ONTY has a market cap of 325 million, and is just as far along as TPIV, if not a little bit behind them in terms of pipeline. http://www.oncothyreon.com/product_pipeline/pipeline.html GALE has a market cap of 241 million, and is even farther in the FDA than TPIV, albeit they have an inferior product. They also have two commercial products that generate revenue. http://galenabiopharma.com/pipeline/
In June, the stock hit a high of $1.81 (80 million market cap) when it was still a phase 1 company with great uncertainties about its data. Now that the data has been proven solid, it should start to catch up to the companies' closest competitors' market cap.
There are no more negative events to speak of (poisonous dilution etc.) that will drag down the stock price.

Let's talk about the warrant structure for a bit before I wrap this up:
The company is currently at a market cap of 38 million, with 6.2 million in cash, another 7.4 million in warrants waiting to be exchanged for cash at much higher prices than the current share price. TapImmune has zero debt, and they are fully funded to the end of 2016. There are currently 62,890,762 shares outstanding, plus the assumed exercise of 5,000,000 A-1 warrants from Kenneth Dart, that brings the total up to 67,890,762. It should be noted that since Kenneth Dart bought into the company, there has been a tremendous amount of speculation and worry that he might sell his shares. This is extremely unlikely. In August, Dart exercised half of his C-1 warrants which were valued at 50 cents per warrant. He didn’t invest in Tapimmune to make a 1-bagger. Any activist investor can do that. He’s in for the long term, looking to see many times his initial investment. And he’ll get it eventually. Kenneth Dart currently owns 25,000,000 shares in the company, with 15 million warrants available for him to exercise at .50, .75, and 1.25. It is unclear how many shares and warrants Iroquios Capital Management, Empery Asset Management, Brio Capital Master Fund, and American Capital Management still own. However, they could potentially still own approximately. 27,017,000 shares, and 32,672,000 warrants. When all warrants are exercised, the total stock issued will be just under 121,000,000 shares.
Which means, even if all warrants were exercised today (the odds of which would never happen) at 121,000,000 shares, the company would have a market cap of 72.6 million – LESS THAN A THIRD of their closest competitor.

All-in-all, this stock is at bargain prices as a result of Kenneth Dart's A-1 warrants being exercised on November 28th. His company: There is virtually no risk of him selling the shares at this price - (You don't take control of 40% of a company unless you believe in it in the long term, which is exactly what he and Tapimmune have indicated) so there is no real risk of the open share pool being diluted - especially not going into catalyst season, and especially when his shares could be sold for 30-40x their price in a few years once Phase 2 data proves solid.
When the catalysts hit, this should be a slam-dunk. I invite you to participate with me.