GV
I've been a buyer of GV this week in the upper 1.60’S and low 1.70's here is what I like.
1) GV Earned .07 this quarter, I think reasonable they can earn .25-.30 going foward, at the current revenue rate. And I don't think it is unreasonable to expect revenue increases sequentially considering my next point.
3) Backlog was a substantially positive for me. I know everyone focuses on the overall backlog down a slight bit sequentially. But that misses the point for the first time in how many quarters can I say the backlog for 12 months is up substantially versus the last 3 month period, in fact it was up over 20% sequentially, this to me was the most exciting part of the pr. Not the earnings, but this.
I was concerned about this trend I do admit until this quarter
Backlog (12 Months)
q3 14 87.4
q4 14 85.3
q1 15 76.8
q2 15 73.0
q3 15 88.5
As one can see this wasn't a pretty picture, before Q3. In fact that number is the highest number I have seen I believe in at the very least recent company history.
3) The other concern is can GV keep margins up. That remains a risk. But it is also could be that those Texas projects were trouble, I know everyone including me got tired of hearing the excuses, but in fairness it was the same project(s) quarter after quarter that was primarily given them the problems, those project have concluded, so I believe that GM will stay relatively healthy from here, as I believe based on what the company said and the quarter the company put up after tell me that is the case, that those projects were simply troubled, but they are behind them.
4) For those that are worried about the sequential drop of revs. I think the 12 month backlog should set aside some of those concerns. More importantly I wonder if q2 seen a boost from the revs finishing those Texas projects, and those revs I'm glad to say goodbye to that is money losing revs, which to me are worse than useless.
Conclusion: I like GV here, I realize it is not without its risks, but I think .25-.30 Going foward conservatively is the number we can look for. Pop a 10 PE on it, and I could see this stock trading in the upper 2's very easily. It may run more, but I want to be conservative.
Admittingly never been a huge supporter of GV, this is the most excited I have been about the stock, for the reason of 12 month backlog up, Money losing project behind them, and stock valuation is too cheap, all of which make me think the stock will go higher in the long run. Time will tell. I will add on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
