Thrift Savings Plan

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A number of divergences suggest a major top may be near (or past). The % of stocks making new-highs on the NYSE has been falling from high levels since Jan 2013. They have been falling hard since Feb 2015. According to Lowry Research, that stat leads the final high by about 6-12 months.

The 150-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE is now 48.9%, i.e., less than half of all stocks have been going up over the last 7+ months. Over the past month only 47.6% of stocks have been advancing and that is while the S&P 500 has gained about 4%.

At the recent S&P 500 all-time high on 21 May 2015, only 2.3% of stocks made new highs. That is an extraordinarily low number at the high and it suggests the top is in.

I have become bearish in the last month or so. Just for kicks I calculated odds that we are now in a Bear Market using the statistics of Bayes Theorem. (I am a bit demented.) I came up with 2 to 1 odds that a Bear Market is underway. If you are interested, calculations/explanations are in my blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/11/stock-market-top-john-hussman-phd-2-to.html

Thanks for the iSPYETF article.