Good points. I think competition is far more likely than collusion yet it is a matter of degrees and I can see how they could simultaneously do both. The scandium companies compete for business but if one of them locks down a bunch of deals at a very high price point that might stick as the price for the first few years.
The Australian laterites will be low cost mines and this will drive those prices down in the long term even if there is a scandium cartel. It is obvious that if scandium was cheap enough demand would be tens of thousands of tonnes per year. At 3, 5, 10k/k that gets into the realm of being cost prohibitive and relegated to a niche market like military applications and areas where that cost benefit is still overwhelmingly favourable. Just as a range it seems the market has unlimited demand below a thousand, strong demand demand at 1-2k and then interest (from my own research) seems to fall off dramatically because you can substitute for titanium and other new nano materials and super-alloys like Hf Al and other similar things. There is probably still decent demand at $3-5k, some at 10k and almost none except vanity purchases and science experiments above that.
I think eventually CLQ and SCY will work like similar to high grade gold mines. With efficiencies gained and economies of scale I wouldn't be surprised if they ultimately cut costs in half and lower the price, say mine an oz of gold, er kilo of scandium oxide, for 3-400 and sell it for 11 or $1200. That is a pretty damn good mine with nice margins and all the demand they can handle. If the industry gets to this point the sky is the limit for scandium production and I think it will quickly go to hundreds and then thousand of tonnes of demand within a few years of the first sc hitting the market.
The scandium story continues to heat up. SCY is already nearing 10 bagger status for initial purchases and we haven't even gotten started yet! Smooth sailing to ~.30 and slightly beyond when they release drill results from the high grade center of their pit? I think so. Scyward!
