Saturday, October 17, 2015 5:30:15 AM
What’s going on in the North Atlantic?
— stefan @ 23 March 2015
The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.
The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century – unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what’s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?
Fig. 1 Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013. The cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic is remarkable and well documented by numerous measurements – unlike the cold spot in central Africa, which on closer inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data.
It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System .. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/kommunikation/fragen-zu-klima-faq/what-is-the-gulf-stream.html .. weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation .. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/rahmstorf_eqs_2006.pdf ). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s – since Wally Broecker’s classical Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?” Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.
The Atlantic circulation (AMOC) as part of the global overturning circulation of the oceans in an animation from NASA.
[ INSERT from YouTube embed.
NASA: The Thermohaline Circulation (The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt) [720p]
Our Universe Visualized
Uploaded on Oct 15, 2009
The oceans are mostly composed of warm salty water near the surface over cold, less salty water in the ocean depths. These two regions don't mix except in certain special areas. The ocean currents, the movement of the ocean in the surface layer, are driven mostly by the wind. In certain areas near the polar oceans, the colder surface water also gets saltier due to evaporation or sea ice formation. In these regions, the surface water becomes dense enough to sink to the ocean depths. This pumping of surface water into the deep ocean forces the deep water to move horizontally until it can find an area on the world where it can rise back to the surface and close the current loop. This usually occurs in the equatorial ocean, mostly in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This very large, slow current is called the thermohaline circulation because it is caused by temperature and salinity (haline) variations.
This animation shows one of the major regions where this pumping occurs, the North Atlantic Ocean around Greenland, Iceland, and the North Sea. The surface ocean current brings new water to this region from the South Atlantic via the Gulf Stream and the water returns to the South Atlantic via the North Atlantic Deep Water current. The continual influx of warm water into the North Atlantic polar ocean keeps the regions around Iceland and southern Greenland mostly free of sea ice year round.
The animation also shows another feature of the global ocean circulation: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The region around latitude 60 south is the the only part of the Earth where the ocean can flow all the way around the world with no land in the way. As a result, both the surface and deep waters flow from west to east around Antarctica. This circumpolar motion links the world's oceans and allows the deep water circulation from the Atlantic to rise in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the surface circulation to close with the northward flow in the Atlantic.
The color on the world's ocean's at the beginning of this animation represents surface water density, with dark regions being most dense and light regions being least dense (see the animation Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity and Density). The depths of the oceans are highly exaggerated to better illustrate the differences between the surface flows and deep water flows. The actual flows in this model are based on current theories of the thermohaline circulation rather than actual data. The thermohaline circulation is a very slow moving current that can be difficult to distinguish from general ocean circulation. Therefore, it is difficult to measure or simulate.
This animation first depicts thermohaline surface flows over surface density, and illustrates the sinking of water in the dense ocean near Iceland and Greenland. The surface of the ocean then fades away and the animation pulls back to show the global thermohaline circulation.
credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/UMBC .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3niR_-Kv4SM ]
Difficult to measure
Climate models have long predicted such a slowdown – both the current 5th and the previous 4th IPCC report call a slowdown in this century “very likely”, which means at least 90% probability. When emissions continue unabated (RCP8.5 scenario), the IPCC expects 12% to 54% decline by 2100 (see also the current probabilistic projections of Schleussner et al. 2014). But the actual past evolution of the flow is difficult to reconstruct owing to the scarcity of direct measurements. Therefore, in our study we use data on sea surface temperatures in order to infer the strength of the flow: we use the temperature difference between the region most strongly influenced by the AMOC and the rest of the northern hemisphere.
.. much more, rooster ... http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/?wpmp_tp=1
No, you will never be way ahead of anything as long as you totally ignore the science.
The owner of your source looks an interesting guy .. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Desmond
Hey! These two top headlines just now look ready made for you.
Russian Navy ready to WIPE OUT Islamic State militants at any moment, official reveals
THE Russian Navy is ready to attack the Islamic State (ISIS) terror group in Syria at any moment, an official has said.
Did parallel universe open up? Hundreds see 'floating city' filmed in skies above China
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/612680/Russian-Navy-ISIS-Islamic-State-Syria-Vladimir-Putin-Iraq
WOW, "at any moment"! That's great. Must have happened by the time you read this, eh. Tell me. Has Daesh been wiped out yet?
This one is a real pearl!
Did parallel universe open up? Hundreds see 'floating city' filmed in skies above China
http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/612531/Did-parallel-universe-open-up-Hundreds-see-floating-city-filmed-in-skies-above-China
Hot, eh. LOL
See also:
Climate Change, Migration, and Security in South Asia
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102210428
Growing Crisis in Its Backyard Snares Russia
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98003759
Weathergirl goes rogue
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102161216
— stefan @ 23 March 2015
The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.
The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century – unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what’s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?
Fig. 1 Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013. The cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic is remarkable and well documented by numerous measurements – unlike the cold spot in central Africa, which on closer inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data.
It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System .. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/kommunikation/fragen-zu-klima-faq/what-is-the-gulf-stream.html .. weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation .. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/rahmstorf_eqs_2006.pdf ). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s – since Wally Broecker’s classical Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?” Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.
The Atlantic circulation (AMOC) as part of the global overturning circulation of the oceans in an animation from NASA.
[ INSERT from YouTube embed.
NASA: The Thermohaline Circulation (The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt) [720p]
Our Universe Visualized
Uploaded on Oct 15, 2009
The oceans are mostly composed of warm salty water near the surface over cold, less salty water in the ocean depths. These two regions don't mix except in certain special areas. The ocean currents, the movement of the ocean in the surface layer, are driven mostly by the wind. In certain areas near the polar oceans, the colder surface water also gets saltier due to evaporation or sea ice formation. In these regions, the surface water becomes dense enough to sink to the ocean depths. This pumping of surface water into the deep ocean forces the deep water to move horizontally until it can find an area on the world where it can rise back to the surface and close the current loop. This usually occurs in the equatorial ocean, mostly in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This very large, slow current is called the thermohaline circulation because it is caused by temperature and salinity (haline) variations.
This animation shows one of the major regions where this pumping occurs, the North Atlantic Ocean around Greenland, Iceland, and the North Sea. The surface ocean current brings new water to this region from the South Atlantic via the Gulf Stream and the water returns to the South Atlantic via the North Atlantic Deep Water current. The continual influx of warm water into the North Atlantic polar ocean keeps the regions around Iceland and southern Greenland mostly free of sea ice year round.
The animation also shows another feature of the global ocean circulation: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The region around latitude 60 south is the the only part of the Earth where the ocean can flow all the way around the world with no land in the way. As a result, both the surface and deep waters flow from west to east around Antarctica. This circumpolar motion links the world's oceans and allows the deep water circulation from the Atlantic to rise in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the surface circulation to close with the northward flow in the Atlantic.
The color on the world's ocean's at the beginning of this animation represents surface water density, with dark regions being most dense and light regions being least dense (see the animation Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity and Density). The depths of the oceans are highly exaggerated to better illustrate the differences between the surface flows and deep water flows. The actual flows in this model are based on current theories of the thermohaline circulation rather than actual data. The thermohaline circulation is a very slow moving current that can be difficult to distinguish from general ocean circulation. Therefore, it is difficult to measure or simulate.
This animation first depicts thermohaline surface flows over surface density, and illustrates the sinking of water in the dense ocean near Iceland and Greenland. The surface of the ocean then fades away and the animation pulls back to show the global thermohaline circulation.
credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/UMBC .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3niR_-Kv4SM ]
Difficult to measure
Climate models have long predicted such a slowdown – both the current 5th and the previous 4th IPCC report call a slowdown in this century “very likely”, which means at least 90% probability. When emissions continue unabated (RCP8.5 scenario), the IPCC expects 12% to 54% decline by 2100 (see also the current probabilistic projections of Schleussner et al. 2014). But the actual past evolution of the flow is difficult to reconstruct owing to the scarcity of direct measurements. Therefore, in our study we use data on sea surface temperatures in order to infer the strength of the flow: we use the temperature difference between the region most strongly influenced by the AMOC and the rest of the northern hemisphere.
.. much more, rooster ... http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/?wpmp_tp=1
No, you will never be way ahead of anything as long as you totally ignore the science.
The owner of your source looks an interesting guy .. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Desmond
Hey! These two top headlines just now look ready made for you.
Russian Navy ready to WIPE OUT Islamic State militants at any moment, official reveals
THE Russian Navy is ready to attack the Islamic State (ISIS) terror group in Syria at any moment, an official has said.
Did parallel universe open up? Hundreds see 'floating city' filmed in skies above China
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/612680/Russian-Navy-ISIS-Islamic-State-Syria-Vladimir-Putin-Iraq
WOW, "at any moment"! That's great. Must have happened by the time you read this, eh. Tell me. Has Daesh been wiped out yet?
This one is a real pearl!
Did parallel universe open up? Hundreds see 'floating city' filmed in skies above China
http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/612531/Did-parallel-universe-open-up-Hundreds-see-floating-city-filmed-in-skies-above-China
Hot, eh. LOL
See also:
Climate Change, Migration, and Security in South Asia
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102210428
Growing Crisis in Its Backyard Snares Russia
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98003759
Weathergirl goes rogue
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102161216
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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