from my experience market makers, are 20 steps ahead of us. the prices doesn't go up if the company is not reporting that the float got larger.
this is my experience...what your saying makes sense, but this is the pinks, and market makers are here to make money....i cant see this rise, unless its due to accumulation
market makers have access to transfer agents, and transfer agents know the exact share structure...its us common folk that wait for the quarterlies...
i could be wrong, but that is my experience