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Re: CaptWhizbang post# 26000

Thursday, 10/08/2015 12:28:40 PM

Thursday, October 08, 2015 12:28:40 PM

Post# of 29204
many US energy companies building pipelines supplying gas to areas not being serviced prior

Yes. And I do read all that you post. The article I posted happens to address something I've been thinking of for a long while but had no supporting data or opinions to allow me to voice the concern.

My new concern is that with oil price and NG price tanked and so many E&P cos. getting distressed by the combo of low price and high leverage on their balance sheets there will be some difficulty financing the new infrastructure as lenders will get all conservative looking at the falling toll prices in existing infrastructure and wonder if the loan is "safe" in an environment of reducing commodities price and demand, worldwide, and worries that it will bleed over into the U.S. eventually.

I think the stock market also reflects this if you take a look at a chart for $NFG, which has E&P and infrastructure and/or look at XLE (NFG tracks it precisely), or any commodity symbol.

So, I expect some of the infrastructure will be at least delayed until better market conditions exist and/or they can get financing that's more friendly (if my assumption that financing is now getting more difficult).

Regardless of new infrastructure builds, if drilling rigs are getting laid down and existing infrastructure players are having to accept lower fees for transporting the commodity, that has to bleed through, so at best[, IMO, new infrastructure would only offset the drop in sales to existing infra-structure plays.

And then there's the dog-gone lag time as new pipe takes a while to be put in place, especially if it's laid on "green field" where rights-of-way have to be obtained, EPA clearance, home-owner objections addressed, ... Yes, short legs at a time come on-line quickly and that will help.

To me, cost containment and new market penetration becomes vital if CPST is to progress rather than just stand still, which in and of itself might be difficult in the current situation.

"It's always worse than we think" and "It's always better than we think" probably applies in this case.

MHO,
BILL

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