Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/06 2015 EOD

Another order, a biggie this time, arrived so we'll probably tank as usual.

We had pre-market trades totaling 10.4K ranging from $0.2274 to $0.23 with a VWAP of $0.2291.

Trading opened on a 69.7K block at $0.2350, a buy, and a sideways range of $0.23/$0.234 on reasonable volume ending with a step up to another sideways range beginning at 9:37 trading low volume at $0.2312/$0.234, ending at 9:49 at $0.2336. 09:50-10:10 saw price rising, initially on low volume, but volume began to pick up at 9:55 and peaked roughly at the apex of $0.2357/$0.2412 at period end. 10:11-10:22 began at $0.2367/$0.2405 with narrowing upward sideways trading that end at $0.2391/2. 10:23-10:31 started with a ~69.6K drop to $0.235 and began a low-volume climb back up three minutes later, ending at $0.2374/$0.2386. 10:32-10:59 started with a ~59K bump up to $0.2425 and dropped, on 197.2K over the next four minutes, to $0.2345 and began a sideways trade in the $0.2342/$0.2395 range on generally low volume, with a spike here and there, and rising lows, ending at $0.239. 11:00-11:14 began with a 12.4K minute at $0.2383/$0.24 and went low-volume sideways in that range with rising lows. There was a heavy sell imbalance initially, ~60K $0.24 offers, that got slowly consummed even when bids were at $0.2399, ending the period at $0.2399/$0.24. 11:15-11:20 began with 79.8K $0.2399/$0.242 and began low-volume sideways trading $0.2420/3 until period end. 11:21-11:36 began with 104.7K in the first two minutes taking price to $0.25 for both minutes. Then at 11:24 ~132.3K took the high to $0.2506 followed by 165.1K in the next four minutes taking price to $0.2521. Then a high-volume drop to $0.2484 and a medium-volume rise to $0.249 ended the period. 11:37-11:57 began a medium-volume sideways trade at $0.2498/$0.2513 on falling volume. 11:58-12:34 moved to $0.252 on low volume and began a slow low-volume rise, hitting $0.2528 at 12:06, went low-volume flattish there through 12:22 and began a slow step lower ending at $0.2516. 12:35-14:33 (no trades last minute) began with 105.6K dropping to $0.24 followed by a rebound to start trading low-volume sideways $0.246/$0.25, with rising lows narrowing the range to $0.2488/$0.25 ~12:55, and then rising on low volume again, ending at $0.251. 14:34-15:04 began with 37K taking price to $0.2528 in the next minute followed by falling-volume sideways trading $0.2525/28. 14:57 and 15:00 got a couple spikes to $0.255/49 respectively and the period ended at $0.2525/$0.253. 15:05-15:59 began with 118.9K in the first four minutes swinging from $0.2516 to $0.2501 and then at 15:09 beginning low-volume $0.2513/47 sideways trading with the range slowly deteriorating and finally just narrowing until the EOD volatility kicked in ~15:53, when the highs got up to $0.254 and $0.255, ending the period at $0.2532/$0.255. The closing block was very small sell of 3,747 at $0.2545.

AH trades totaled 11,200 shares for $0.26.

Including the opening block, there were 23 trades totaling 722,191 shares, 15.25% of day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.2437. Excluding the opening block there were 22 trades totaling 652,470 shares, 13.78% of day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.2446.

 Ending Period  Period  Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End1s 
 Period Volume     Low    High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  09:19  10400 $0.2275 $0.2300   $2,382.73 $0.2291  0.22% 62.50% 
  09:49 428340 $0.2274 $0.2354  $99,586.89 $0.2325  9.04% 57.42% Incl 09:30 $0.2350 69,721 $0.2274 20,000 
                                                                      09:31 $0.2301 26,000 09:48 $0.2340 20,000 
  10:10 415311 $0.2336 $0.2412  $98,258.36 $0.2366  8.77% 54.93% Incl 10:01 $0.2371 21,100 10:06 $0.2372 44,200 
                                                                      10:10 $0.2400 20,600 
  10:22 203140 $0.2367 $0.2405  $48,536.42 $0.2389  4.29% 55.83% Incl 10:12 $0.2395 40,000 
  10:31 173522 $0.2350 $0.2392  $41,041.42 $0.2365  3.66% 55.00% Incl 10:23 $0.2350 19,913 
  10:59 456978 $0.2342 $0.2425 $108,607.66 $0.2377  9.65% 54.86% Incl 10:32 $0.2390 30,000 10:35 $0.2396 42,800 
                                                                      10:53 $0.2390 25,000 
  11:14 140219 $0.2381 $0.2400  $33,612.24 $0.2397  2.96% 56.80% Incl 11:03 $0.2400 20,000 
  11:20 139992 $0.2399 $0.2430  $33,762.84 $0.2412  2.96% 53.93% 
  11:36 551538 $0.2420 $0.2521 $137,513.30 $0.2493 11.65% 50.27% Incl 11:26 $0.2500 20,000 
  11:57 253787 $0.2494 $0.2513  $63,528.88 $0.2503  5.36% 49.00% 
  12:34 220645 $0.2500 $0.2528  $55,559.40 $0.2518  4.66% 48.24% 
  14:32 753139 $0.2400 $0.2516 $188,149.72 $0.2498 15.90% 47.47% Incl 12:35 $0.2500 20,000 13:42 $0.2500 23,401 
                                                                      14:08 $0.2508 41,400 
  15:04 281465 $0.2513 $0.2550  $71,187.13 $0.2529  5.94% 46.72% Incl 14:34 $0.2517 24,500 14:57 $0.2550 42,283 
                                                                      15:02 $0.2527 23,500 
  15:59 688292 $0.2501 $0.2550 $174,299.84 $0.2532 14.53% 44.75% Incl 15:07 $0.2550 48,260 15:18 $0.2510 29,513 
                                                                      15:41 $0.2533 50,000 
  16:00   3747 $0.2545 $0.2545     $953.61 $0.2545  0.08% 50.41% 
  16:04  11200 $0.2600 $0.2600   $2,912.00 $0.2600  0.24% 44.74%

On the traditional TA front, movements of the open, low, high, close and volume were -2.49%, 13.08%, 2.04%, 15.73%, and -19.02% respectively vs. yesterday's 0.42%, -12.57%, -3.77%, -8.76%, and 114.34% respectively. This was a big improvement, but on reducing volume. Might be just a dead cat bounce. OTOH, the PR for the new order might have finally convinced the retail populace that things are not as dire as they thought and, as I mentioned in a comment yesterday, the shares are now price like options.

My minimal chart has a potential new descending trading channel but it's too early to say for sure.

On my one-year chart we moved up above the descending support I mentioned yesterday where we had bottomed. All the oscillators I watch showed improvement and MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic came out of the oversold area. If it hadn't been on reducing volume I would read these as quite positive. Given the volume movement I hold a neutral until I see some confirmation of the up move. All the oscillators are still below neutral.

We're still quite near the lower Bollinger limit

Overall, I like the way this behaved except for the volume dropping. I'll look to see the rise increasing with improved volume, or some re-trace on, hopefully, reducing volume so we can at least anticipate sideways rather than down.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage was below my desired range. With a good improvement in buy percentage and daily short sales percentage being as low as it is and the 10/5 intra-day behavior offering lots of attractive covering buy prices, I wonder if today's rise was the MMs holding price up to garner profits, which would account for a rise in buy percentage not being accompanied by a higher short percentage reading than seen. But the number of larger blocks yesterday and today might account for some of it though.

The price spread is still a bit high, but it was produced by open low and rise all day, so not as concerning as normally even though we appear to have started another down trend.

All told, uncertainty is what I draw from this - lack of rising volume (but might just be folks waiting), wide price spread, and low short percentage are negatives for me while the directional correlation of buy and short percentage with a reduced, albeit still wide, price spread are positives.

As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.

Bill