AEterna Zentaris Inc. (AEZS)

[chmcnfunds]

Tremendous odds against approval. F-R rule shows a company with less than $300M market cap has never had a successful cancer Phase III. AEZS market cap is ~$10M.

Quoting from article:

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The Feuerstein-Ratain Rule Update: Still Perfect Predicting Small-Cap Cancer Drug Failure

A market cap under $300 million forecasts phase III study failure.

"Sure. When Dr. Mark Ratain and I came up with the concept for the F-R Rule in 2011, we were limited to analyzing a data set of 59 phase III oncology clinical trials conducted between 2000 and 2009.
For the update, I asked the research staff at BioMedTracker to help me bridge the gap between the initial analysis and the present by compiling a new list of phase III oncology phase III studies conducted from 2009 through February 2014. BioMedTracker delivered to me a list of 72 oncology phase III trials.

-- Twenty-eight of the 72 studies were positive -- a success rate of 39%.

-- Forty-two studies were negative -- a failure rate of 58%. Results for two of the studies could not be determined.



http://www.thestreet.com/story/12696926/1/the-feuerstein-ratain-rule-update-still-perfect-predicting-small-cap-cancer-drug-failure.html
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AEZS